London (AFP)
The United Kingdom saw its activity pick up again with a growth of 0.4% in August, particularly in tourism, restaurants, art and entertainment, thanks to the lifting of all health restrictions linked to the pandemic.
Gross domestic product (GDP) was notably driven by direct services to consumers, such as tourism, which had particularly suffered from the pandemic and the long months of closure.
"Hospitality, foodservice, art and entertainment contributed the most to service activity in August," while retail trade and health services, conversely, saw theirs slow down ", details Wednesday the National Statistics Office in its monthly report.
However, GDP remains 0.8% lower compared to its pre-pandemic level, adds the ONS.
Data for July is revised with now a contraction of 0.1%, compared to an increase of 0.1% initially published.
This revision is due to a lower than expected manufacturing of vehicles, but also of oil and gas due to the period of maintenance in the infrastructures, and to the calculation of the activity in the health sector.
The construction sector has contracted and its output remains 1.5% below its pre-pandemic level.
Customers at the Columbia Road flower market, September 12, 2021 in London Justin TALLIS AFP / Archives
The manufacturing sector, which is also currently suffering from a shortage of manpower, semiconductors and equipment due to a global logistics crisis and the consequences of Brexit, is the one whose delay compared to the pandemic remains the most important, according to data published by the ONS.
- Shortages, inflation, winter wave -
Supply problems in the UK in particular caused a 27% drop in automobile production in August due to a global semiconductor shortage.
The lack of truck drivers, estimated at 100,000 people by the sector, has also generated shortages in stores for several months, which have worsened in recent weeks, now affecting service stations and threatening the performance of businesses for Christmas.
Empty pumps at a gas station in Paddock Wood, September 27, 2021 in the south-east of England Ben STANSALL AFP
The British economy is also facing a surge in prices which could rise to 4% inflation by the end of the year, double the Bank of England's target, with notably sharp increases in energy bills, thanks to record prices for natural gas.
For September, the leading indicator PMI Flash Composite of the firm IHS Markit fell to the lowest in seven months.
"GDP in August showed decent growth as the country rebounded (after months of containment linked to the pandemic) and despite a supply chain crisis and worker shortages, but overall performance has been mixed." , remarks Yael Selfin, economist at KPMG.
"The prospect of rising costs, more disruption (of supply) and a potential winter wave of covid cases could threaten the fragile economic recovery," she warns.
A customer facing the balding fresh section in a London supermarket, September 7, 2021 JUSTIN TALLIS AFP / Archives
The labor market is holding up for the moment, however, with an unemployment rate which continued to decline during the three months ended at the end of August, to 4.5%.
It remains to be seen the potential impact of the end of the massive employment aid put in place for the government in the face of the pandemic, most of which, the partial unemployment program, ended at the end of September.
The Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak for his part welcomed Wednesday the "recovery which continues with a record of salaried employees and the growth forecast for the United Kingdom the fastest this year for the G7".
The IMF has just lowered its UK growth forecast for 2021 to 6.8% from 7%.
The strong recovery in British activity is to be compared with the extent of the fall in gross domestic product last year with the pandemic, the most brutal of the G7 (-9.8%), the United Kingdom having had particularly long and strict months of confinement.
The country is one of the European countries with the heaviest human toll from the pandemic, with around 138,000 deaths.
© 2021 AFP