The dispute revolved around the interpretation of the concept of the largest bloc in Parliament that has the right to form the new government after the announcement of the preliminary results of the elections for the fifth session of the Iraqi parliament, which were held last Sunday.

Preliminary results showed a big victory for the Sadrist movement with 73 seats, to put forward several scenarios regarding the mechanism that will be relied upon in forming the next government.

Shortly after the results were announced, the leader of the Sadrist movement Muqtada al-Sadr described the elections as "the day of victory over the militias," stressing that the time had come to disband the militias and confine weapons to the state, calling on the people to celebrate this victory with the largest bloc.

Meanwhile, the so-called "coordinating framework" group - which includes political forces and armed factions that calls itself the resistance factions, most notably the "Al-Fateh Alliance", "State of Law", "Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq", "Kataeb Hezbollah", the National Approach, and an alliance State forces - with the preliminary results announced by the Electoral Commission.


 The largest bloc and the constitution

The Iraqi constitution of 2005 grants the right to form a government to the most numerous parliamentary bloc, as Clause (First) of Article 76 of it states the following: “The President of the Republic assigns the candidate of the most numerous parliamentary bloc to form the Council of Ministers within 15 days from the date of the election of the President of the Republic,” but opinions It is still divided so far over the concept of "the most numerous parliamentary bloc", does it mean the winner of the elections, or the one that is formed within Parliament by two or more coalitions after the results are announced?

The Federal Supreme Court explained this concept in its decision issued in No. 25/Federal/2010 on March 25, 2010 saying, “The expression of the most numerous parliamentary bloc means: As for the bloc that was formed after the elections through a single electoral list, it entered the elections with a specific name and number and won On the largest number of seats, or the bloc that gathered from two or more electoral lists that entered the elections with different names and numbers, and then coalesced into one bloc with one entity in the House of Representatives, whichever is more numerous, the President of the Republic assigns the candidate of the parliamentary bloc whose seats have become The parliament in the first session of the House of Representatives is more numerous than the other bloc or blocs, by forming the Council of Ministers based on the provisions of Article 76 of the Constitution.

As a result of this interpretation, the rug was pulled from under former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, the leader of the Iraqi List in the second round of government formation elections in 2010, although his list had won 92 seats at the time, and former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki - whose list got the "Coalition of the State of Law". On 89 seats - from its formation after its alliance with various powers.

Harb considered that the new election law grants the Sadrist movement the right to form the next government (Al Jazeera Net)

The interpretation of the Federal Court above was used in the past, but after the legislation of a new election law No. 9 of 2020, which, in Article 45 of it, prohibited the transfer of a representative, party or bloc registered in an open list to a coalition, party or other list except after the formation of the government, the current is granted Al-Sadr has the right to be assigned to form a government, according to the clarification of legal expert Tariq Harb to Al-Jazeera Net.

Mint is likely to be the mechanism of allotment arrangements followed in the process of forming the next government (Al Jazeera Net)

Will the 2014 and 2018 scenario be repeated?

For his part, political analyst Dr. Muhammad Nanaa says that there is no longer a real concept and reality for the most numerous parliamentary bloc according to Article 76 of the constitution after the 2010 elections. Haider al-Abadi was appointed prime minister in 2014, and other blocs voted for him on the basis that he represented the Shiite share and not the candidate of the most numerous parliamentary bloc.

He added that the same scenario was repeated in 2018, when Adel Abdul-Mahdi was chosen as prime minister after an agreement between the Al-Fateh and Sairoon blocs (the two largest blocs in Parliament) after the failure of the Islah and Al-Binaa alliance to reach the parliamentary numbers required to achieve the largest bloc.

Nanaa goes on to say that it is not currently possible to refer to the adoption of the largest bloc, according to the interpretation of the Federal Court in 2010, due to the existence of the same circumstances for the 2014 and 2018 elections, due to the inability of the blocs to merge with each other due to their different orientations and priorities.

"These reasons will keep the allotment arrangements to be the mechanism used in the process of forming the next government, which was added to it in the last rounds of negotiations when choosing the current Prime Minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, that the personality of the prime minister should be accepted within the national space," and this means, according to Mina's talk to Al-Jazeera Net, "that he should not be It is based on a specific direction, but rather balances the desires of the conquerors.”

The closest scenario or the most realistic path to forming the new government - as the Iraqi analyst expects - will not be based on the winning bloc in the elections, nor on the basis of the most numerous parliamentary bloc in parliament. Rather, it will be agreed on a negotiating path in which each party takes its share of government positions according to Its electoral size, and the government program will be ignored because it will be consensual and not a well-studied, professional government program based on a technical basis that takes into account national interests and priorities.

Al-Ani believes that the interpretation of the largest bloc that forms in Parliament still exists (Al-Jazeera Net)

dissenting opinion

Contrary to Nana’, a member of the dissolved session of the Iraqi Council of Representatives, Dhafer Al-Ani, believes that the constitutional interpretation of the Federal Court is still in place so far with regard to the largest bloc that forms inside Parliament, expecting that understandings will eventually take place to find a settlement similar to the one that occurred in 2014 and 2018 despite the existing dispute. between the Sadrists and other Shiite blocs.

Al-Ani confirms to Al-Jazeera Net that the government will be formed from the parliamentary bloc that will be formed within Parliament, and not the winner of the most number of seats in the elections.

Al-Rikabi considered that the biggest problem would lie in choosing a person to head the government if it was possible to form the largest bloc (Al-Jazeera Net)

However, member of the dissolved session, MP from the State of Law Coalition, Kata Al-Rikabi, disagrees with Al-Ani, stressing that the clock cannot be turned back, and admits that the style and requirements of this stage are different from what they were in 2014, with great challenges.

Al-Rikabi believes that the biggest problem will lie in choosing the person of the prime minister if it is possible to form the largest bloc.

Amin stressed the need to adhere to the values ​​and principles of the constitution to achieve the public interest (Al Jazeera Net)

The position of the Kurds

Turning to the position of the Kurdish blocs, and whether they will unite with the bloc that won the most number of seats in the elections or will be formed within the dome of Parliament, its representative, Dr. Muthanna Amin al-Kurd, calls for listening to all opinions, and staying with the party associated with achieving national gains, real reform for the people, good governance and fighting Corruption and the need to adhere to the values ​​and principles of the constitution.

Amin Al-Kurd describes the interpretation of the Federal Court regarding the largest bloc as “bad,” and says that the constitution and the logic of the elections are clear that the bloc that wins the most number of seats is the one who deserves to form the government, but the Federal Court issued a decision that is incompatible with the spirit of the constitution and democracy, although it is a binding decision It must be obeyed unless the court changes its opinion.

In response to a question by Al-Jazeera Net about the possibility of delaying the formation of the government if the dispute over the concept of the largest bloc develops, as happened in the 2010 elections, Amin Al-Kurd asserts that this will certainly lead to the delay in forming the new government, except in one case, which is that the Sadrists collect the largest number of seats quickly Possible to declare the majority in Parliament in the first session of the Council and the formation of the government.