The unprecedented surge in natural gas prices has made Europe a difficult winter.
According to data from the European Intercontinental Exchange, compared with the price of about 6 euros in the middle of last year, the price of natural gas has soared more than 10 times recently, and the price has hit a record high.
As energy prices have soared, so have European electricity prices.
Some analysts predict that this energy crisis may spread to the world.
Energy supply involves economic and social development and people's livelihood, and there is no room for slippage. The bottom line that must be adhered to to build a new power system is to ensure safe supply.
In the period of seeking to accelerate the transition to clean energy, it is more necessary to highlight the importance of safe and affordable energy supply.
The level of energy reserves in Europe has dropped to a historical low, and the skyrocketing gas and electricity prices have triggered public protests, and many companies have announced the suspension of production due to cost pressures
After last year’s cold winter and this year’s scorching heat, the level of European energy reserves fell to a historically low level.
According to data from the European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association, at present, the European regional natural gas inventory is only 74.7% of the full-load level, which is the lowest level in more than a decade, and the winter energy reserve needs to be replenished urgently.
In the face of the energy shortage crisis, market prices reacted fiercely.
On October 6, local time, the wholesale price of British natural gas reached 400 pence/them, a record high.
European Union natural gas prices have also risen for several consecutive months. According to a Reuters report on October 8, the Dutch TTF natural gas futures price, which is the European benchmark natural gas futures, has risen 400% from January this year.
The energy crisis triggered a series of chain reactions, among which the power industry was the most affected, and the soaring electricity prices caught governments and consumers by surprise.
At present, the electricity price per MWh in the UK has risen to 285 pounds, a 700% increase over the same period, setting a record since 1999.
Spain's electricity prices have tripled since last December, and Germany has risen by 50%.
Industry insiders warned that all European countries will work hard to deal with unprecedented power industry crises.
As the northern hemisphere is about to enter a cold winter, energy demand continues to increase.
If energy prices continue to rise, tens of millions of European households may fall into "energy poverty" because they cannot afford heating.
The International Energy Agency warned that in the coming winter, Europe may face various forms of "stress tests" such as cold currents and unexpected power outages.
In recent days, rising electricity and gasoline prices in France have caused public dissatisfaction.
On October 2, a large number of protesters demonstrated in Paris.
Some demonstrators said that rising electricity and gasoline prices have put pressure on their lives.
"Once we pay the electricity bill, the rest of our life becomes a big problem. The cold season is approaching and we need to keep warm in the house. If you go to a poor area, you will find that people are suffering and no one turns on the heating because They can’t afford the electricity bills,” said Jean Christian Valentine, the organizer of the demonstration.
Energy-intensive industries cannot bear the cost pressure brought about by rising energy prices. Many steel, chemical, and food processing companies have stated that rising energy prices will squeeze profits, and even announced production cuts or suspensions due to cost pressures.
Several large-scale fertilizer producers in the UK announced production cuts, and because the British food industry relies on carbon dioxide provided by fertilizer producers in food processing, preservation, and slaughter, British food industry officials said that if the carbon dioxide shortage problem is not resolved, the country will face food crisis.
At present, European governments are taking active actions to reduce the impact of this crisis.
According to reports, the United Kingdom is considering providing relief loans to energy suppliers, while the Spanish government has issued a decree restricting retail energy prices.
The impact of the epidemic, unfavorable weather conditions, increased energy demand... Multiple reasons have led to Europe’s “gas shortage”
Why is there a "gas shortage" in Europe?
Experts analyzed that on the one hand, the economies of many countries have gradually recovered after the anti-epidemic blockade was lifted, and the northern hemisphere has entered the autumn and winter seasons, and the demand for energy such as heating and lighting has increased; on the other hand, affected by adverse weather conditions such as low winds and droughts, Europe This year's wind and hydropower generation is far below the average level, making the already inadequate energy reserves "exacerbating the situation."
“Generally speaking, summer is the off-season for natural gas. In previous years, there is gas storage. However, due to the global high temperature weather this summer, people’s demand for cooling is also increasing, and weather conditions have weakened wind power. European countries have some green power. If you can’t keep up, you can only get gas and electricity. Therefore, if you use reserve gas in summer, you will inevitably need to inject gas in autumn and winter.” Luo Zuoxian, director of the research office of the Sinopec Research Institute of Economics and Technology, told reporters.
Natural gas is regarded as a “transition fuel” for the transition from traditional energy sources to renewable energy sources such as wind and solar energy.
As the world strives to reduce coal and increase the use of clean energy, countries are increasingly dependent on natural gas.
In April of this year, the consumption of natural gas in Germany was 60% higher than the level of the same period last year; currently, 85% of households in the UK rely on natural gas for heating, and half of the power generation capacity also depends on natural gas.
Europe's natural gas mainly depends on imports from Russia.
One out of every four European households uses natural gas from Russia.
Russia's own demand for natural gas is also growing, and gas sources exported to Europe are more or less affected.
"Globally, Europe and Asia's "competition" is a major feature of this year's natural gas sales field. Strong demand and no increase in output will naturally lead to an increase in prices." Luozu County said.
He believes that many oil and gas exploration and development projects were postponed or shut down at the beginning of the epidemic, and there was even an abnormal phenomenon of negative oil prices last year, which severely affected the enthusiasm of investors.
At present, with the economic recovery of various countries and the needs of people's lives, demand has seen rapid growth. This imbalance in the relationship between supply and demand has led to the current crisis.
European climate policy itself is also pushing up energy prices in Europe.
Thermal power plants could originally switch between the use of natural gas and the use of coal, but the use of coal requires the purchase of carbon emission permits.
Since the beginning of this year, under the impetus of the reform of reducing the number of carbon emission permits in Europe, the price of EU carbon emission allowances has reached a record level.
The high cost of carbon emissions further contributes to natural gas prices.
The current energy crisis has triggered discussions among European countries on the energy transition.
Some people blamed the crisis on the European energy transition "too much strides."
Hungarian Prime Minister Orban recently blamed the EU’s climate policy to achieve carbon neutrality for rising energy prices.
Burrows, an energy and climate research expert at the School of Political Sciences in Paris, said that an overly radical energy transition will cause serious energy storage shortages.
If they do not have the ability to adjust flexibly at the same time, the tension between the phenomenon of "energy poverty" and the social class may be intensified, and the process of energy transition may be reversed.
Others believe that this energy crisis is precisely because the transition is not yet in place, and the international community should promote the energy transition faster.
The European Commission’s Vice-President for Climate Change Affairs, Feras Timomans, stated that the correct response to the volatility of the oil and gas market should be to “maintain or even speed up the transition to more renewable energy sources”, “not to slow it down. One step".
Renewable energy supply system may “failure” under extreme weather, and the problem of energy storage after power generation still needs to be broken
In Luozuo County's view, there is no need to worry too much about the current global energy market.
From the perspective of resource fundamentals, natural gas reserves are still sufficient. For example, Russia and the United States are still traditional resource giants, while Saudi Arabia, Iran, Algeria and other new resource potential countries have not yet been deeply developed.
"I believe that these temporary difficulties will trigger the market's "invisible hand" to adjust the industry, and eventually supply and demand will tend to balance." Luozu County said.
Luozuo County believes that "supply stability" and "sustainability" are the basic connotations of energy security. "On this basis, pursuing a higher level of energy independence and avoiding national energy supply from being restricted by others is the common policy management goal of all countries. And pursuit."
Since the spread of the epidemic, the world's consensus on developing a green and low-carbon economy has increased, and carbon neutrality has gradually become the common pursuit of all countries.
Luozuo County stated that the huge impact of carbon neutrality on the energy industry is to increase the proportion of renewable energy in primary energy, and renewable energy often relies on the local area.
This means that the country's dependence on extraterritorial energy has declined, thereby improving the country's energy security level from the fundamentals of supply and demand.
To a large extent, energy security can be measured by the degree of external dependence on energy.
At present, my country's dependence on foreign crude oil exceeds 70%, and its dependence on natural gas exceeds 40%.
Europe's oil and gas resources have declined since the 1970s, and Japan and South Korea are countries that lack oil and gas resources.
Due to its own lack of energy self-sufficiency, Europe has been plagued by similar incidents of Gazprom gas supply cutoffs, while Japan and South Korea have long suffered from oil and gas premiums in Asia.
In order to effectively solve these problems, Europe, Japan, and South Korea have opened up diversified oil and gas supply channels on the one hand, and vigorously developed green renewable energy on the other hand, striving to protect energy supply.
However, since this year, wind power, solar power, hydropower and other renewable energy sources in the United States, Europe and Asia have not been able to fill the energy gap caused by the reduction in the use of fossil energy.
Why did the renewable energy supply system that have been high hopes fail under the influence of external factors such as extreme weather?
In the process of energy transition, when wind and solar power are insufficient, the power supply in the region will be easily affected.
Under certain circumstances, "not being able to do anything" is a common embarrassment for renewable energy in all countries.
For example, due to the drought in Yunnan this summer and insufficient hydropower, the power supply that should have been sent to Guangdong is also short.
Another example is Texas at the end of last year. The extreme cold weather not only freezes the blades of power generation fans, but also freezes the water supply channels of coal-fired power companies, and also affects the pipeline network transmission of natural gas.
Studies have pointed out that the current battery production capacity of battery manufacturers in the world for more than five years can only meet the power of the city of Tokyo for three days of power outages, and the problem of energy storage after renewable energy power generation still needs to be broken.
Faced with reality, all countries have to deal with the current lack of electricity supply through thermal power using coal and natural gas as raw materials.
In response to the crisis, the United Kingdom recently announced the restart of a coal-fired power plant that has long been shut down.
"The return to thermal power reflects the lack of capacity building in the renewable energy supply system and insufficient stability." Luozuo County pointed out.
Energy security must not be lost. It is necessary to implement the "three new and one high" requirements, and properly handle the current and long-term relationship between development and emission reduction based on national conditions, promote the green and low-carbon transition of energy, and enhance the ability to ensure energy security
"Ecological civilization is the historical trend of the development of human civilization. Let us join hands, uphold the concept of ecological civilization, stand at the height of being responsible for future generations, and jointly build a community of life on earth, and jointly build a clean and beautiful world!"
On October 12, General Secretary Xi Jinping attended the 15th Conference of the Parties Leaders Summit of the Convention on Biological Diversity via video and delivered a keynote speech, emphasizing that we must establish a green and low-carbon circular economy system and transform ecological advantages into development Advantages, make green water and green mountains produce huge benefits.
During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core, my country's energy development has achieved remarkable results.
However, from the perspective of my country's energy structure, thermal power generation based on fossil energy such as coal is still the main force of power generation at present.
Renewable energy such as hydropower, wind power, and photovoltaics has developed rapidly, but it is difficult to shoulder important tasks for the time being.
In 2020, my country's total energy consumption is about 4.98 billion tons of standard coal, and fossil energy accounts for more than 80%.
Data show that my country's renewable energy installed capacity accounted for more than 40%, but power generation only accounted for 27.3% of the total power generation.
Especially wind power and photovoltaic power generation, the installed capacity accounts for close to 25%, but the power generation accounts for less than 10%.
In accordance with the requirements of being based on the new development stage, implementing new development concepts, building a new development pattern, and promoting high-quality development, under the "dual carbon" goal, reducing the proportion of coal in primary energy consumption, and developing renewable and clean energy It has become an inevitable requirement in the transformation of the energy structure.
However, such a huge consumption of fossil energy means that any "leaping forward" type of "track change" will lead to problems in the supply of energy for social production and life.
Some experts believe that the current European energy crisis is not unrelated to the "one size fits all" and "movement-style" carbon reduction in European countries.
"From the perspective of thinking, we must first ensure energy security before advancing green and low-carbon reforms. The reality will move European countries to some extent. Although it will not cause the stagnation of green and low-carbon reforms, the next step is to make more preparations on the methodological path. It is not surprising to choose a plan and more flexible management response measures.” Luozuo County said.
In the opinion of Xie Heping, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and Dean of the Deep Earth Science and Green Energy Research Institute of Shenzhen University, my country's resource endowment and the actual economic and social development at this stage determine that my country's economic and social development is still inseparable from coal in the short term.
Even if carbon neutrality is fully achieved, my country still needs coal as a power peak shaving, carbon-reducing agent, and a bottom-line energy source to ensure energy security.
At the same time, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality also provide a forceful mechanism for improving the quality and efficiency of the industry, creating time and space.
"In the past many years, coal companies have had a weak foundation for the development of new energy, and there is no motivation or determination. The goal of carbon neutrality has forced coal companies to actively develop new energy and enter the main position of new energy. They can give full play to the advantages of coal mining areas and focus on coal power. , Coordinated development with solar power generation and wind power, build a multi-energy complementary clean energy system, and build the coal mine area into a ground-underground integrated wind, light, electricity, heat, and gas diversified and coordinated clean energy base." Xie Heping said.
"In general, the process of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality will be a process of transformation and upgrading and even subversive development of the coal industry. Therefore, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality are not just arduous challenges for the coal industry, but more importantly. A rare historical opportunity." Xie Heping said.
Energy security is related to development security and national security, and there is no room for loss.
At this stage, my country's industrialization and urbanization are deepening, and energy demand will inevitably continue to grow.
We must implement the "three new and one high" requirements, based on national conditions, properly handle the relationship between development and emission reduction, current and long-term development, coordinate stable growth and structural adjustment, deepen market-oriented reforms in the energy sector, promote green and low-carbon transformation of energy, and improve energy Security capability.
"To advance the realization of the'dual carbon' goal in a scientific and orderly manner, we must make long-term and arduous efforts." Luozu County said.