Macron awaits the identity of his opponent in the elections, and fears of the emergence of a "French Trump"

French President Emmanuel Macron remains the favorite to win next year's election, but finds himself in the uncomfortable position of not knowing who his main rival is six months before the polls.

As the countdown to the first round begins on April 10, the centrist Macron is no longer sure that the run-off two weeks after that date will be a repeat of what happened in the 2017 elections with the populist right-wing leader Marine Le Pen, which he won easily.

Instead, Macron faces scenarios of uncertainty and open stakes in a campaign that is already undergoing sudden turns.

Expectations have been turned upside down in recent weeks by the surge in support for right-wing populist TV analyst Eric Zemmour, who is seen as the French version of Donald Trump and who, if he decides to run, is likely to beat Le Pen and split the votes of the populist right.

As for the traditional right, it has not yet settled on a name in a process that has caused friction, with influential figures such as former minister Xavier Bertrand, the president of the Paris region, Valerie Pecres, and former Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier competing.

In parallel, the left is preoccupied with its own problems.

The campaign of the Socialist President of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, has not yet found the necessary momentum.

The Green Party was also hurt by a bitter race to choose the ideal candidate that ultimately failed to unite pragmatists and radicals.

His approval rating is lower than that enjoyed by the leader of the extreme left, Jean-Luc Melenchon.

"What is worrying Macron is that he thought he would compete in the second round with Le Pen, but he is no longer sure of that," said a pro-Macron lawmaker, who asked not to be named.

"It is possible that someone will reach the second round with only 15-16 percent of the vote, so we don't know the identity" of the contender, said a minister, who asked not to be identified.

Current opinion polls indicate Macron winning the first round with about a quarter of the vote.

But if Zemmour's candidacy leads to a more fragmented scene than it is now, it will be enough for any candidate to obtain a percentage between 16 and 19 percent to qualify for the second round.

Pascal Perino of the Institute of Political Sciences in Paris considers that the entire political system during the past four years will witness a strong shake.

"What a change in the past two weeks," he told AFP.

Frederic Dabi of the Ifop polling institute said Le Pen was "relatively weakened" by Zemmour's appearance.

Given this fragmentation, he said, the price of a ticket for the second round "slowly collapses," recalling how Marine Le Pen's father, Jean-Marie, shocked the political mainstream by crossing into the second round in 2002 with only 16.8 percent of the vote.

Dabi says Macron is "the only island of stability in a fragmented political landscape," but that a candidate from the traditional right-wing to cross into the second round could cause problems for the French president.

"Opinion polls show that Xavier Bertrand could beat Emmanuel Macron if he reaches the second round," Perino says.

In the event of the victory of Macron, who climbed the political ladder at a record speed to become the youngest French president in 2017, he will be the first president elected for a second term since the era of Jacques Chirac, as his predecessors, Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande, ruled for only one term.

On the international level, he could turn into the undisputed leader of the European Union with the withdrawal of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, thus implementing his vision of European strategic independence while the United States repudiates its commitments on the continent, according to Macron.

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