Analysis: "That three parties risk leaving the Riksdag paves the way for a high pitch"

Stefan Löfven

Prime Minister Stefan Löfven (S).

Photo: Henrik Montgomery / TT

Cooperation with the Center Party and the Liberals was Stefan Löfven's (S) major strategic goal, but it did not even last a term and now the autumn's big question is whether the government gets through its budget.

In that situation, the Prime Minister chooses to throw in the towel.

In less than a month, he will leave the party leadership position and that will inevitably make him tonight's lame duck.

But with a January collaboration added to the documents, the S-leader can take the turns more in the issues where S and C are far apart, such as the free school issue.

No one should therefore be surprised if Löfven makes a large number of the Social Democrats' proposal for a ban on profiteering.

Ulf Kristersson

Moderate party leader Ulf Kristersson.

Photo: Henrik Montgomery / TT

As leader of the largest opposition party, it is important for Ulf Kristersson (M) to show that he is the one holding the baton in the new right-wing bloc.

But his government alternative is fragmented, which is likely to become clear when party leaders clash over jobs.

The moderates once again want to go to the polls on their line of work, where reduced benefits are a key building block, while SD thumbs up on both increased sickness benefits and strengthened unemployment insurance.

But when it comes to tonight's last topic of debate, crime, there is a growing consensus, which the moderate leader will want to oppose the split on the red-green side.

Jimmie Åkesson

Sweden Democrats' party leader Jimmie Åkesson.

Photo: Duygu Getiren Maden / TT

For six years, Jimmie Åkesson (SD) has wanted a collaboration with M and KD and now it is a fact.

The fact that the party is in negotiations to agree on a common alternative to the government's budget shows that SD has been let into the right wing.

It is a success that should not be underestimated, but it also means a balancing act for the SD leader.

To stand by, capture the dissatisfaction of voters and put the blame for the social problems on the other parties has been crucial for SD's growth.

It is also a position that has given Jimmie Åkesson an advantage in the party leader debates, but it is difficult to reconcile with the ambition to show that you are part of a new collaboration.

Annie Lööf

Center Party party leader Annie Lööf.

Photo: Henrik Montgomery / TT

After Nyamko Sabuni's (L) change of heart on the government issue, Annie Lööf (C) is the only bourgeois party leader who insists that SD should have no influence over the government's policy.

It is an attitude that has attracted well-educated metropolitan voters, especially women, and which has made the Center Party today not only seen as an interest party for the countryside and companies, but also as an idea party.

But the stubborn SD opposition also means that Annie Lööf finds herself in the fact that the Center Party is increasingly placed in the red-green team when her government solution in the "broad center" is rejected by the other seven.

Therefore, expect that Lööf will want to make a point of the political dividing lines and mark clearly against Nooshi Dadgostar (V).

Nooshi Dadgostar

Left Party leader Nooshi Dadgostar.

Photo: Nils Petter Nilsson / TT

This summer's government crisis put the Left Party at the center of the debate and caused confidence in Nooshi Dadgostar (V) to skyrocket.

Putting hard against hard against an S-led government that implements the Center Party's policy was a recipe for success that lifted V to levels they have not had since Gudrun Schyman (V).

Now the drama has subsided and the Left Party is losing public opinion as so often when disappointed left-leaning S-voters start returning home again.

Getting them to stay with V even in an election is Dadgostar's big challenge, so expect that she will make the most of leading the only opposition party on the left with clear attacks on both the government and the opposition on the right.

Ebba Busch

Christian Democrat party leader Ebba Busch.

Photo: Stefan Jerrevång / TT

A low point tonight is that Ebba Busch (KD) strives to be the government's fiercest critic and the one who attacks Annie Lööf (C) the hardest for cooperation with the government.

It was that position, combined with being the first to break the “anti-sd pact”, that lifted KD to record levels in the spring of 2019 and put Ebba Busch at the top of the confidence league.

Now the situation is different.

Ebba Busch has slipped down to a sixth place and with 4.6 percent in SVT / Novus, KD is not sure about the parliamentary barrier.

Voters, despite the high confidence in the profile issues of health care and elderly care, do not really seem to be on the train when KD wants to position itself as the "welfare party on the right" in competition with SD which squares itself as the "social conscience" in a possible right-wing government.

Per Bolund

One of the Green Party's mouthpieces, Minister of the Environment and Climate Per Bolund.

Photo: Robin Ek / TT

The Green Party remains unthreatened in terms of which party voters think has the best policy for the environment and climate, which is a strength for Per Bolund (MP) when he duels the issue against Nyamko Sabuni (L).

But despite the fact that the climate has become increasingly important for voters, it does not lift for the Green Party, which has not been safe over the parliamentary barrier since October 2020 according to SVT / Novus.

One explanation is the concessions in government and the difficulty of bringing about a clear conflict in the party's profile issue, so expect that Per Bolund, despite his toned-down debate style, will do what he can to make it hot.

Nyamko Sabuni

Liberal Party leader Nyamko Sabuni.

Photo: Nils Petter Nilsson / TT

Disaster figures in public opinion, internal division in the SD issue and jumbo place in the confidence league.

There is no doubt that a lot is at stake for Nyamko Sabuni (L) tonight.

On top of that, Sabuni lacks a parliamentary seat and thus does not have the same debate routine as its fellow combatants.

A tough starting point, but that the school is one of the evening's topics of debate is of course welcomed by the leader of the party that is once again planning to build an election movement around the school.

But it is far from certain that it is enough in answer to the urgent question why the Liberals are needed in Swedish politics.