• Marine Le Pen seems to be collapsing as quickly in the polls as Eric Zemmour is progressing.

  • The polemicist does not only take votes from the RN candidate, he also reveals all her weaknesses.

  • Failing credibility, degraded image, wear and tear on the media scene ... The reasons for the fall of Marine Le Pen are numerous.

If Eric Zemmour's sounding dynamic is quite unprecedented in terms of its scale, the same goes for the decline of Marine Le Pen. The candidate of the National Rally has lost ten points since the return to voting intentions. So much so that the one who was, without stopping, qualified for the second round in all the presidential polls since 2013 would not be there any more, in the last livery of Harris Interactive. This is just one poll among many at the moment, and it's only early October, six months away from the first round. But all the same, how to explain that the advance of Marine Le Pen has melted so quickly?

This lead seemed solid, however: all the polls explained that the voters of Marine Le Pen were the most certain of their choice.

Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at the Ipsos polling institute, does not deny this characteristic with

20 Minutes

“but we have proof that even a solid electorate can change.

It does not protect against everything, it depends on the campaign, the controversies… ”And surprise applications, obviously.

Marine Le Pen's weak points exposed by Eric Zemmour

Level of campaign themes, we cannot say that Marine Le Pen is at a disadvantage. Immigration and security, dear to candidate RN, have not disappeared. On the contrary, they take on a preponderant importance in the media, even if, as Mathieu Gallard says, "these are not the very first concerns of the French": purchasing power, social protection and the environment are ahead of the themes. dear to the far right and to its electorate.

Except that with him, Eric Zemmour seems better armed on these subjects.

“The FN then the RN scored points thanks to their radicalism, recalls the researcher at Cevipof interviewed by

20 Minutes

, Gilles Ivaldi.

But, since 2017, Marine Le Pen is in a logic of widening its electoral base and seeks credibility.

»Without success for the moment, and it is on this weak point that Zemmour comes to support.

He passes for "both radical and more

mainstream

, since he comes from the classic right, from

Figaro

 ", analyzes the researcher.

The member for Pas-de-Calais "is still paying for the debate between the two rounds of 2017."

A still bad image in public opinion

Eric Zemmour reassures the traditional right-wing bourgeoisie, the part of the LR electorate "who could agree with Marine Le Pen on immigration or security but find her and her party not capable of exercising power ", Describes Mathieu Gallard, and too" on the left "on economic issues. It is therefore the image of the candidate that is in question. It is obvious to say it but Marine Le Pen remains a Le Pen, which remains a blockage, even to the right of the right. Popularity level "it is unanimous among supporters of the RN, but out of that, the rejection is very strong, even among supporters LR", notes the pollster.

And then, Marine Le Pen is not the newest on the electoral market.

Like Jean-Luc Mélenchon, she is still starting her third presidential election campaign.

She is now part of the political class she stigmatizes.

“There is a form of wear and tear.

However, today, in France, there is an aspiration for novelty, for new political incarnations ”, judges Gilles Ivaldi.

A bit as if the clearers were always cleared by more clearers.

The good life without Zemmour?

So Marine Le Pen will perhaps have to reconsider its strategy of less presence in the media, imagined to give itself an image more "above the fray", more "presidential": "Faced with the media bulldozer that is Eric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen's field campaign will not last long, ”Gilles Ivaldi analyzes. Coming out of the comfort of the candidate almost automatically qualified for the second round, the question that could quickly arise, according to the researcher, is whether Marine Le Pen will have the resources and the desire to return to the fray: "There above, there is a concern at the RN ”, he understands.

His hope, no doubt: to see Eric Zemmour give up his candidacy.

It is of course difficult to imagine it today, but it remains a hypothesis.

In this one, Marine Le Pen is extremely stable in the polls of intention to vote and battle with Emmanuel Macron far ahead of everyone.

"Without Zemmour there will be no one to resume its positioning, it will be without competition on the far right", predicts Gilles Ivaldi.

It remains to be seen whether the storm will have passed without too much serious damage for the candidate.

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  • Survey

  • Eric Zemmour

  • Marine Le Pen

  • National Gathering (RN)

  • Presidential election

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