Armin Laschet and Olaf Scholz are going into the upcoming explorations and negotiations with different levels of stress.
The advantage for Scholz: He can claim that he has won the election.
For Laschet, the Union's electoral debacle is initially devastating, but not necessarily a disadvantage: The Chancellery is the safe haven for the CDU, and the party has never been convinced that the opposition can recover.
Laschet's second disadvantage: he is negotiating a coalition of four, Scholz only a coalition of three. It remains to be seen whether the CSU Laschet continues to put obstacles in the way or actually wants to participate in government in Berlin (the behavior in the election campaign does not speak for it). Laschet's big advantage: He has Christian Lindner on his side, they both know each other well, have already experienced a similar situation in North Rhine-Westphalia, in which Laschet has earned Lindner's trust, which is not easy. Others, see 2017, have failed completely. That is why Lindner made it clear on Sunday evening: Jamaica was "more likely". Without this pound in his back, Laschet would probably not have appeared so self-confident on election night.
But that doesn't have to scare Scholz and the SPD: Lindner also knows that many FDP voters firstly want him to govern in their favor and only secondly have a preference for a certain coalition.
There are also advocates of a traffic light coalition in the FDP leadership, and according to Annalena Baerbock, at least that sounded like it during the election campaign, the Greens are on Scholz's side anyway.
If it weren't for Robert Habeck, who has already negotiated a Jamaica coalition in Kiel and has done well with it.
Or Winfried Kretschmann, who only recently preferred green and black to traffic lights in Stuttgart.
How does Scholz sort the parliamentary group chairman?
For Scholz there is an unexpected advantage: A coalition with the Left Party is ruled out, so the left party can only make life difficult for him to a limited extent.
How the party is sorted and whether it will subordinate itself to Scholz will be shown by the election of the parliamentary group executive this week.
The party leadership negotiates the coalition - but the oath is made in the parliamentary group, whose members have to swear the result in front of the grassroots and at the end elect the chancellor.
Scholz creates calm in the negotiations when one of his loyal followers takes over the chairmanship of a group of representatives that has been shifted to the left - or even temporarily himself.
Not only in the SPD, in all parties it will "jerk" because of such considerations.
Only in the FDP will things continue as smoothly for Christian Lindner as they did in the election campaign.
He doesn't have to assert himself for long as group leader; it should go without saying that he will stay that way.
With a view to the election of Chancellor, his colleagues are much less confident in the saddle.
Ralph Brinkhaus (CDU) also has to fear competition, as he is not necessarily considered a Laschet supporter.
Jens Spahn would certainly prefer Laschet.
And also in the new Green parliamentary group, traffic lights or Jamaica wings could fight each other.
In each case, this is a sign of where the journey should go and how difficult negotiations on a coalition and then everyday governance could be - and how long they will take.
Not so much self-confidence among the Greens
The party and parliamentary group chairman of the FDP has nothing to fear.
So he approaches the other parties even more confidently than he is anyway.
One of the first addresses for the FDP will be the Greens.
Because whoever the FDP wants to govern with, it will have to do with the Greens.
And that she wants to rule - who would doubt that after the abstinence of 2017?
The same applies to the Greens, whose will to power was trimmed by the candidacy for chancellor to become vice-chancellor.
That is why their ranks are no longer as self-confident as they were at the beginning of the election campaign.
Wind and weather, especially the Berlin wind, spoke in favor of Annalena Baerbock's historic election victory.
There can be no question of a result that lives up to its claim to be the party bringing salvation, the only one to have recognized the signs of the times.
This will lead to friction in the party, which will also influence the election of the chancellor.
After 16 years in the opposition, the Greens are provisionally claiming a government contract that is good for any combination.
The FDP and the Greens are the chancellor makers who depend on each other.
What will be important is what the voters wrote in their studbook.
FDP and Union voters are close together, the Greens have deterred former Merkel voters who fear a red-red adventure.
The danger for the FDP of alienating voters who Lindner has lured with a clear vision of Jamaica is great.
Nevertheless, the Greens will not do the FDP a favor of waiting for Scholz or Laschet without a wealth tax, minimum wage and climate hammer.
So Lindner will have to show great skill, perhaps even neglecting his own political ambitions.
After all, he doesn't actually want to be a parliamentary group leader, but rather to become what Robert Habeck also wants to be: finance minister.
Habeck has better chances in a Jamaica coalition;
Lindner, on the other hand, has better cards in a traffic light coalition.