by Paolo Cappelli

27 September 2021


Head-to-head competition 

The CDU / CSU is behind, the SPD is the first party, the Greens are doing worse than expected and the Left Party, Linke, must tremble at the threshold of the Bundedestag.

Forming a government will be difficult.

After these elections, a close race is emerging between the CDU / CSU and the SPD to form a government. The CDU / CSU, which with Angela Merkel provided the federal chancellor for 16 years, has received the bill for the bumpy election campaign of candidate Chancellor Armin Laschet. For ARD, it received just 24% of the votes over 8 percentage points less than four years ago. It is his worst historical achievement. However, Laschet said, "everything possible will be done to form a federal government under the leadership of the CDU / CSU." The 25% SPD improved its 2017 result by 4 and a half points. The result is "a great success," said Scholz. Many voters have made it clear that the next chancellor must be called Scholz. The Greens, with the candidate chancellor Annalena Baerbock,they are the third party in Germany. But in the spring polls they were at 28%, they got 14.6% of the votes - 5.7 points more than in 2017. Voters present parties with a difficult task to start a new government


The Chancellor's Thriller!

Scholz in front of Laschet in the projections speaks of a mandate for the government of the electors.

But Laschet wants to work on a Union-led government with Liberals and Greens, which are far worse than expected. 


Scholz and Laschet claim chancellery

Three parties go down - Union, AfD and Left Party - three go up: SPD, Greens and FDP, his favorite coalition.

For the SPD candidate this says it all, or as Scholz puts it: "Some parties have grown, others have not."

But for Laschet it is now a question of forming a tripartite alliance "under the leadership of the Union".

"I will work for this starting today," he announces.

"The chancellor will be the one who manages to combine the opposites".

If there is no grand coalition between the SPD and the CDU, a rather unlikely alliance, it will probably not be possible to form a government without the liberals. At CDU headquarters it was said that if a red-red-green alliance is ultimately not possible, the SPD will have no blackmail potential. Then the key to the chancellery would be the liberals. FDP leader Christian Lindner will decide whether the majority will be black-yellow-green or red-yellow-green.

One thing has become clear: the Greens and the FDP are determined to make their mark on the search for a coalition, they want to be the new third force forging this alliance.

The Bundestag serves to govern at least 371 seats

First hypothesis: Scholz government with Greens and Liberals, 420 seats

Second hypothesis :: Laschet government with Greens and Liberals, 407 seats

Third hypothesis:


grand coalition - Union extended to the Greens, 523 seats

Fourth hypothesis: classic GroKo, 405 seats

Fifth hypothesis: SPD grand coalition Union extended to Liberals, less likely because more right-oriented, 498 seats

Sixth hypothesis: a red red green government which, however, would not reach the absolute majority of 371 seats in the Bundestag by 3-4 votes, which instead in theory would have the 

Seventh hypothesis: AfD Liberal Union government, 373 seats, but neither Union nor Liberals want to go to government with AfD


Draw and battle vote to vote in Germany for the succession to Merkel

The Figaro

Arm wrestling for the chancellery

Scholz and Laschet claim a mandate for the chancellery, a battle opens with an uncertain outcome for the formation of a government coalition

The Times

Germans face months of uncertainty following tightrope elections.


Scholz and Laschet claim the



: the SPD is back central, the Union is trashed

How the SPD built the victory. According to Infratest Dimap polls, the SPD has won 2.3 million voters compared to the past: of these, 1.39 million more came from the Union. Another 600,000 votes came from the left, 330,000 from voters who had not voted in 2017, 220,000 from the AfD and 140,000 from the FDP. The Social Democrats lost 230,000 voters for the Greens and 150,000 for the other parties. 

How he lost the Union

The CDU / CSU lost a total of 3.21 million voters compared to the last federal elections in September 2017. The majority in favor of the SPD (1.39 million) and 830,000 former EU voters this time voted for the Greens , 480,000 for the other parties, 470,000 for the FDP and 130,000 did not vote.

The anti-Laschet sentiment is gaining ground: The Union is rejected in substance. The chancellor candidate still sees a "clear mandate" from voters - and is aiming for a Jamaican coalition. In fact, a clear CDU / CSU governance profile is becoming a distant prospect. Armin Laschet (CDU) proves to be a master of autosuggestion. Under normal circumstances, this result would be a reason for the resignation of the party leadership, for an embarrassed transition to the opposition, for a rethinking of the party program, in other words for a complete renewal. But these are not normal circumstances.


Scholz ahead in the country, Giffey in Berlin

The Union is running out. Armin Laschet doesn't shoot, Olaf Scholz does. But the collapse of the Union has deeper reasons: it was not just the candidate, writes Albert Funk.

the CDU / CSU lost votes in all age groups. Among those over 70, 6% fewer voted for the Union than in 2017. The SPD recorded a 9% increase in the same age group. 

infratest chart dmap

The two parties suffered the greatest losses from young voters. In the group of 18-24 year olds, 14% have moved away from the Union and 5% from the Social Democrats. The Greens did not do particularly well. However, this is particularly due to Germany's older voters. The Greens are the most popular party among the under 25s, with 22%, ahead of the Liberals. Then comes the SPD with 14%; only about one in ten young voters wanted to see the Union rule.

One in four voters between the ages of 18 and 39 wanted a green-led government.

Among those over 65, half of all voters wanted an SPD-led government.

This is also reflected in the age of candidates for individual parties.

Only 13% of the candidates for the Union Bundestag are under the age of 30.

At least one in four candidates for the Greens is under the age of 30.


SPD and CDU claim the chancellery

In the end, will the minority shareholders determine the majority and therefore the chancellor? We already know at least two coalition partners. The next federal government will include the Greens and the FDP. FDP chairman Christian Lindner said last night that the two parties should first negotiate with each other. Green leader Habeck agrees. As if junior members could choose who sits in the Chancellery. The two available alliances refer to the CDU / CSU ("Jamaica") or the SPD ("Ampel, semaphore"). When it comes to the question of which coalition is more popular, a Jamaican alliance led by CDU CSU is slightly ahead with 33%, followed by a traffic light coalition (SPD Liberals and Greens 28%), according to the Wahlen research group.Almost half of the respondents declare themselves opposed to this alliance. After all, one fifth of the voters would have wanted a red-red-green government, but that's not mathematically possible. 

Most Germans want Olaf Scholz as Federal Chancellor. If there had been direct elections, according to Infratest Dimap, 48% would have voted for Scholz; only 24% for the candidate chancellor of the Union Armin Laschet. 

Berthold Kohler: Union must support Laschet

Risen from the ashes, the SPD now believes in a future where Olaf Scholz could become Federal Chancellor. He would be the fourth Social Democrat after Willy Brandt, Helmut Schmidt and Gerhard Schröder - and the one with the worst result in the SPD. In the days of its predecessors, the SPD also had 40% of the votes.

The Union now knows how high the Chancellor's bonus is that it lost with Merkel's departure. The Chancellor had won 32.9% four years ago, the lowest result in the history of the Union. Before the outbreak of the pandemic, national surveys for CDU and CSU were even below 30%. Since neither Scholz nor Laschet lead parties that want another GroKo, the name of the next chancellor will be decided by the Greens and the Liberals. Germany is facing months of unprecedented coalition negotiations. The Union parties would no longer be of any help if, in this situation, they did not (really) support their candidate chancellor. The CSU also understood this.


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El Mundo Depor

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