The European Union is heading towards a prolonged period of uncertainty

Macron aspires to succeed Merkel as Europe's new leader

  • France's quarrel with the United States could play into Macron's favour.

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  • Macron with an Atlantic official.

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  • Merkel was a statesman, while Macron's style alarmed his European partners.

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After the Germans vote and a new government is formed, Chancellor Angela Merkel will leave her post as the dominant figure in European politics. This is the moment French President Emmanuel Macron has been waiting for. The German chancellor, despite surviving multiple crises, has long been criticized for her lack of strategic vision. Macron, whose reckless style at times alarmed his European partners - and Washington - has put forward ideas for a more independent and integrated Europe, better able to act on its own defense and interests. But, as the Anglo-American "betrayal" of the Australian submarine affair emphasized, Macron sometimes has far-reaching ambitions. Despite the vacuum that Merkel will leave, it is unlikely that this vacuum will lead to the birth of the Macron era.

Instead, analysts say, the EU is headed toward a prolonged period of uncertainty and potential weakness, if not necessarily aberration.

And not a single figure - not even Macron, or the new German chancellor - will be as influential as Merkel was at her strongest, a reliable and well-informed leader who managed things calmly, building consensus among a long list of opposing voices, and more and more disparate ideological colleagues.

This raises the prospect of Europe being paralyzed or floundered in its own challenges — about what to do about an increasingly apathetic America, about China and Russia, and about trade and technology — or even the more dangerous split of the bloc's always-provisional unity.

It will mean that Macron, who is himself a candidate for re-election, in April, will need to wait for a German government that may not exist until January or later, and then work closely with the new German chancellor. “We will have a weak German chancellor at the head of a larger and less united coalition,” said Mojtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy. The political cycles of these two major countries will not be simultaneous.”

The uncertainty is likely to persist until after the French parliamentary elections, in June, assuming Macron wins.

The latter argued forcefully that Europe must do more to protect its interests in a world in which China is rising and the United States is focused on Asia.

French officials are already trying to prepare the ground on some key issues and are looking forward to January, when France takes over the EU's rotating presidency.

But given the prospect of protracted coalition talks in Germany, the window for achievement is narrow.

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Macron will need the Germans' help, and while France and Germany can no longer run the EU on their own, when they get along, they tend to bring the rest of the bloc together. So building a relationship with the new German chancellor, even if it is weaker, will be the main objective of the French president. And the executive director of the Open Societies Foundations in Europe, Daniela Schwarzer, indicated that he must be careful, so as not to frighten the Germans, explaining, “Macron’s leadership is broken, and the German method is to change institutions gradually, and both sides will need to think about how to enable the other side to respond constructively.”

French officials know that fundamental change will be slow, and will want to take advantage of initiatives already underway, such as the analysis of Europe's interests called "Strategic Compass", and a modest, but steady, increase in military spending on new capabilities, through a fund and program called "PESCO", which It aims to promote joint ventures and European interoperability.

After insulting the failed submarine deal, and Australia abruptly canceling a contract with France and opting for a deal with Britain and the United States instead, many European leaders are now likely to agree with Macron that Europe should be less dependent on Washington and spend a bit more on defense. about itself.

Few in Europe, however, want to permanently damage relations with the Americans and NATO.

“Italy wants a stronger Europe,” said Marta Dassault, former Italian deputy foreign minister and director of European affairs at the Aspen Institute.

Well, but in NATO we are not on the French opinion about that.”

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, whose voice is respected in Brussels, has declared that he believes strongly in the transatlantic relationship.

"We are closer to Germany than France, but without all the ambiguities about Russia and China," Dassault added.

Officials say France, too, wants to be more assertive by using the economic and financial tools that Europe already has, especially trade and technology.

They say the point is not to push too hard and too fast, but to raise the level of the European game against China and the United States.

But France's German partners will go through a period of uncertainty.

The new German chancellor is expected to win only a quarter of the vote, and may need to negotiate a coalition agreement between three different political parties.

This is expected to take at least until Christmas, if not longer.

building credibility

The new chancellor, too, will need to precipitate European issues that barely appeared in the campaign, as well as build credibility as the newcomer among 26 other leaders.

"So it is now important to start thinking about concrete German-French victories during the French presidency that Macron can use in a positive way in his campaign," Schwarzer said, continuing "because Berlin does not want to think of a scenario in which Macron loses" to far-right Marine Le Pen, or The one in which Euroskeptics like Matteo Salvini take charge in Italy.

Regardless of the winner, German policy toward Europe will remain more or less the same as that of a country deeply committed to the European Union, with ideals, caution and a desire to maintain stability and unity.

The real question is whether any European leader can have the coherent strength of Merkel's.

And if not, what will that mean for the future of the continent?

Merkel herself has been important in preserving the European Union.

"She took into account the interests of many in Europe, especially Central Europe but also, in Italy, so that everyone could be kept on the boat," said Ulrich Speck of the German Marshall Fund.

A senior European official said that Merkel considers the European Union the core of her policy, and that she is the true guardian of this union.

And it is willing to bend to keep the bloc together, as demonstrated by its support for the collective debt, which was previously a German red line, to finance the Corona virus recovery fund.

"Merkel acted as a mediator when there were a lot of centrifugal forces that weakened Europe," said Thomas Klein-Brockhoff, an official at the German Marshall Fund. "It is not clear what the position of the next chancellor and that of Germany will be."

However, Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, noted that "whoever is the chancellor, Germany is still responsible for more than half of China's trade with Europe, as well as major issues, from how to deal with China to technology wars and climate change."

chance of change

The French and Italian positions will also be decisive on outstanding and important financial issues, such as financial and banking integration, the attempt to complement the single market and the monitoring of the Epidemic Recovery Fund.

Chancellor Angela Merkel's departure may provide an opportunity for the change Macron desires, even if it is largely miniature.

Some analysts argue that Merkel's preference for the status quo is outdated, at a time when Europe faces many challenges.

Perhaps most important is the looming debate over whether to change Europe's spending rules, which in practice means getting countries to agree to spending more on everything from defense to climate.

The director of Bruegel, a think-tank in Brussels, Guntram Wolff, says the real problem is that a fundamental change will require a treaty change.

"There can be no stealth financial and defense integration, and it will not have legitimacy and citizens will not accept it," he explained.

But he said the German election discussions ignored these important issues.

"The sad news is that none of the three candidates for chancellor addressed any of this in their campaign, so my main expectation is that the confusion continues," Wolff said.

The European Union is heading for potential weakness, and no single figure - not even Macron, or the new German chancellor - will be as influential as Merkel was.

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