With the Iraqi elections approaching,

Al-Sadr seeks to double his seats in parliament to win the selection of the prime minister

  • Muqtada al-Sadr hopes that the Prime Minister among his supporters.

    From the source

  • Supporters of Muqtada al-Sadr carrying his pictures in Najaf.

    From the source

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The leader of the Sadrist movement and the former opponent of the United States, Muqtada al-Sadr, announced earlier that his party would withdraw from the parliamentary elections this summer, but due to its irregular nature and the political theaters in which it indulges a lot, the leader of the largest bloc in Parliament retracted the decision two months after announcing that .

He now hopes to double his share of seats in parliament and appoint the next prime minister.

A prominent member of the Sadrist movement, Dhia al-Asadi, says that al-Sadr "declared that we want the position of prime minister," referring to a position that is usually agreed upon through parliamentary negotiations in the absence of a majority.

Al-Sadr's group has emerged in recent years as one of the largest political forces in Iraq, and he is now determined to use the October elections to bolster his party's advance.

For some Western policymakers wary of Iranian influence in Iraq, the man the US media has described as Iraq's most dangerous might prove an attractive alternative to pro-Iranian groups.

“The relationship between Sadr and the West has improved significantly over the past few years,” says Laheeb Hegel, senior Iraq analyst at Crisis Group.

To illustrate the extent of the group's change, the Sadrists working for the Iraqi government met with Western diplomats.

Al-Asadi said, "The Sadrist movement tends to open up to the world."

He added that this should be based on the common interest, and that no country should have the right to interfere in Iraqi affairs.

From militia to parliamentary forces

In the early days of the US-led occupation in 2003, al-Sadr — the fourth son of the famous Iraqi Shiite cleric, Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr, who was killed by former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein — rallied his supporters to lead an unwieldy paramilitary group in armed resistance called the Army. Mahdi.

Members of the Mahdi Army were accused of committing atrocities against Sunnis in the sectarian civil war that swept Iraq after the US invasion.

But over the past decade, al-Sadr has rediscovered himself as an advocate for the oppressed and has a wide following among the working class of Iraqi Shiites.

In 2018, a Sadr-led coalition won more seats than any other bloc in the 329-seat parliament.

Backed by a low turnout, the group has nearly doubled its share since 2014, taking 54 seats, making it the largest parliamentary bloc.

Low voter turnout may be in al-Sadr's favour again this time.

Al-Asadi says: "Even if the Sadrists do not register the largest number of the expected 100 seats, I think their number will increase."

Under the political system established after Saddam's overthrow, no group was able to obtain a majority and rival factions were forced to share power.

While al-Sadr did not hold a government position in 2018, his influence increased under Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, who has relied on al-Sadr to balance pro-Iranian lawmakers, some of whom are linked to militias.

Iraq has long been the site of a proxy struggle between Iran and the United States, whose 2,500-strong force is helping Iraqi soldiers drive out the Islamic State, which once controlled parts of the country.

These foreign forces are often the target of Shiite militias linked to Iran, which has been a source of great frustration for the United States.

Is Sadr really anti-Iran?

In the early days of the Mahdi Army, Sadr was seen by many as an Iranian proxy, but that close relationship soured. Al-Sadr now makes clear that his opposition to foreign intervention in Iraq includes Iran, which is welcome news in the West. "Is he really anti-Iranian?" asks Harvard Kennedy School colleague Marcin Al-Shammari, who lives in Baghdad. What is his position on the United States? And what is the scope of its cooperation with him?” And Al-Shammari adds: “No one really believes that he has no relations with Iran, or that he will not turn into an Iranian alliance.” "But at this moment he can point to the pro-Iranian militias and say, 'Look, they're the ones who are throwing rockets at the American embassy, ​​we must be the rational and credible actors who keep Iraq's interest in mind,'" she said.

In the past year, one Western diplomat says, the Sadrists made a "deliberate decision to engage with the UK and US", realizing that if they played a more prominent role in government, tentative relations with Western powers would be beneficial to them.

However, a US embassy spokesman denied any contact from the Sadrists, and the UK declined to comment.

Strong grip on power

Not everyone is convinced that Al-Sadr will win again.

His wrong behavior and bullying of his supporters may lose his voters.

Hegel says his withdrawal from support for the popular protests that erupted in southern and central Iraq in October 2019 may be counterproductive.

After he appeared to have a reform agenda before 2018, Hegel says, "a lot of that picture is now shattered, and it will be difficult for him to secure the same amount of seats or increase them."

In any case, his grip on power is already evident in his allies' control of large parts of the corruption-ridden Iraqi state, including the ministries of health and electricity.

Research published by Chatham House in June indicated that the Sadrists held the largest share of "special" positions, powerful positions in the civil service that are shared between political parties.

Al-Sadr also heads the Cabinet Secretariat.

Despite operating under the radar, the Sadrists "are also just as disruptive as any other player to the fabric of the Iraqi state through corruption and asset divestiture," according to Toby Dodge, a professor at the London School of Economics and co-author of the Chatham House research.

The rise of the Sadrist movement reveals the evolution of Iraqi politics since the 2003 invasion, in which the factions that previously exercised power have been merged through violence.

"The Sadrists today are no longer the same Sadrists in 2004, and their methodology is no longer the same," said Farhad Alaeddin, head of the Iraqi Shura Council.

Despite describing themselves as being far from the decision-making circles, says Farhad, this movement believes that its survival is to remain in the government and be part of the system.

In the early days of the US-led occupation in 2003, Sadr - the fourth son of the famous Iraqi Shiite cleric, Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr who was killed by former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein - rallied his supporters to lead an unwieldy paramilitary group in the armed resistance called the Mahdi Army. .

In recent years, al-Sadr's group has emerged as one of the largest political forces, and he is now determined to use the October elections to bolster his party's advance.

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