Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats and Chancellor's Conservatives are neck and neck in Germany's parliamentary elections, according to early polls on Sunday evening, which pave the way for the end of the Merkel era.

“We have the mandate to form a government.

(The head of the list) Olaf Scholz will become chancellor ”, estimated the general secretary of the SPD, Lars Klingbeil. 

The conservative CDU-CSU union, led by Amin Laschet, would obtain 25%, like the Social Democrats, according to an exit survey for the public channel ARD.

The SPD is slightly ahead, with 26%, the CDU-CSU, at 24%, according to another poll for the ZDF channel.

Historical setback

Whatever happens, the Christian Democrats suffer an unprecedented setback since 1949 with at least eight points less than in 2017, already a historically low level for the conservatives.

For the first time in 72 years, in an increasingly fragmented Germany, the conservative union has fallen below 30%.  

This setback casts a shadow over the end of the reign of Angela Merkel, whose popularity remains at its zenith after four terms but who has proved unable to prepare for her succession.

The Greens and their candidate Annalena Baerbock, a favorite time of the poll, miss the boat with, according to these polls, between 14 and 15%.

Little reason for satisfaction: they beat their record in 2009, when they obtained 10.7% of the vote, and are up six points compared to 2017.

Towards a three-party coalition

The Liberals of the FDP, fourth with around 12%, appear to be the “kingmakers” essential for building a future coalition. The far right of the AfD, whose entry into the Bundestag was the main highlight of the previous election in 2017, confirms its roots in the German political landscape. But with between 10 and 11%, this Islamophobic party undermined by internal conflicts, is down slightly compared to four years ago (12.6%).

If the trend is confirmed, Olaf Scholz, austere vice-chancellor and finance minister of the outgoing government, thus has chances of succeeding Angela Merkel, chancellor for 16 years, and of initiating the "change" promised at the end of the campaign.

This centrist Social Democrat, however, will have to build a three-party coalition, a first in contemporary German history.

The negotiations are thus likely to last several months, to the chagrin of the partners of the first European economy, who fear a paralysis of the EU until the beginning of 2022. The Greens, who did not hide during the campaign their availability to enter in a social democratic government, should be part of the team. 

Long negotiations in perspective

The identity of the third auxiliary force remains totally uncertain.

The liberals of the FDP, clearly marked on the right, are a possible partner in the framework of a so-called “traffic light” coalition.

Another possible partner, the radical left of Die Linke, which according to these polls brings together around 5%, is not guaranteed to pass the 5% mark and thus save its group in the Bundestag.

Olaf Scholz was open to discussions with these two disagreements on virtually all subjects.

The negotiations are likely to last several months and thus delay the effective departure of Angela Merkel, 67, more than 30 of whom have been in politics.

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