Forecast for the Bundestag election: Heavy losses for the Union - SPD significantly improved

The Union suffered heavy losses in the general election on Sunday. Under top candidate Armin Laschet (CDU), the CDU and CSU received less than 30 percent of the vote for the first time in the history of the Federal Republic and landed at around 25 percent. In the last federal election in 2017, the CDU and CSU had achieved 32.9 percent. The Social Democrats, who ran with Federal Finance Minister Olaf Scholz as the top candidate, were able to significantly improve their results compared to 2017 and also came to around 25 percent (after 20.5 percent in 2017). The Greens also gained significantly in comparison (8.9 percent in 2017), but with around 14 percent they were only the third strongest force by a wide margin. According to the first forecasts, the FDP was around 11 percent (after 10.7 percent in 2017), the AfD around 11 percent (12,6 percent 2017). The left had to tremble in the evening with around five percent to return to the Bundestag (9.2 percent 2017).

After the election result, several alliances are now possible for the successor to the grand coalition under Chancellor Angela Merkel. Both the SPD and the Union would have a majority with the Greens and FDP in order to form a federal government under their leadership. In the history of the Federal Republic of Germany, the largest parliamentary group in each case had provided the chancellor in most cases, but the other parliamentary groups are free to form a majority together. Both the Union and the SPD had announced before the election that they would try to form a government majority even when they came second.

The actual desired alliance of SPD chancellor candidate Scholz would be a red-green coalition, which however would not have its own majority in the Bundestag. Therefore, the SPD is also dependent on the FDP under top candidate Christian Lindner in order to be able to provide the chancellor in a so-called traffic light coalition with the Greens and the FDP. For a red-green-red alliance with the left, which Scholz had also never ruled out, there was no majority according to the first predictions on the evening of the election. On the other hand, according to the first forecasts, the continuation of the so-called grand coalition of the SPD and CDU / CSU, which has ruled the country for the past eight years, would also be possible. However, both sides had repeatedly made it clear in the past that they had no interest in continuing this alliance.

For Union's top candidate Laschet, after the election result, a so-called Jamaica coalition with the Greens and FDP is the closest option to get the Chancellor majority. Laschet could rely on his trusting relationship with FDP boss Lindner, with whom he formed a black-yellow coalition after the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia in 2017. In 2017, the Union, FDP and Greens held exploratory talks for a Jamaica alliance for weeks after the federal election, in which Laschet was also involved. At that time, the Union and the Greens had largely come to an agreement, but the FDP under Lindner had abandoned the talks. In the election campaign, however, the FDP recently made it clear that it was now ready for a coalition. The Free Democrats also did not rule out a traffic light alliance with the SPD and the Greens,although they always stress that they would prefer a coalition led by the Union. The Greens, too, had always declared themselves ready for both options, but also pointed out that they would have more content-related overlaps with the Social Democrats.

At the weekend, the Union and the SPD had attacked each other sharply in the election campaign.

CDU General Secretary Paul Ziemiak once again warned in newspaper interviews that after the election of the SPD, the left wing around the former Juso chairman Kevin Kühnert would set the tone.

"More than 50 young socialists are expected to belong to the future SPD parliamentary group," said Ziemiak.

That means a “massive shift to the left” of the SPD.

SPD General Secretary Lars Klingbeil said that the Union was "broken after 16 years of Merkel and devoid of ideas." She had to go to the opposition bench.

Green Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock had emphasized at the end of her election campaign in Düsseldorf that the federal election was about the question of whether there would be more "ducking away" with the grand coalition or a "new departure".