The polling stations are closed for three quarters of an hour when Armin Laschet takes the stage in the Konrad-Adenauer-Haus.

He is the first to thank Chancellor Angela Merkel, who stands behind him.

The Union Chancellor candidate has to declare the worst result of his party in history.

At least now it becomes clear how many have voted for the CDU, apparently mainly because of Merkel.

Laschet later says: "None of the parties had an official bonus."  

Timo Steppat

Editor in politics.

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For whom did the Merkel voters from 2017 vote this time?

The Union loses most of the votes to the SPD, almost 1.4 million according to preliminary figures from Infratest Dimap.

470,000 voters have migrated to the FDP, 830,000 to the Greens.

130,000 stayed at home.  

In the final phase of the election campaign, the popularity ratings of the candidates apparently played a decisive role.

Olaf Scholz, who has enjoyed a high level of approval since the spring, spurred the SPD on from the beginning of August.

Most recently, the polls rose to 27 percent - with a clear gap to the Union.

Even if the CDU / CSU were able to catch up slightly on election evening, they are experiencing a minus of a good eight percentage points compared to 2017.  

Only 14 percent of Germans would have voted for Armin Laschet in a direct election. The post-election surveys show that the candidate for chancellor was not a draft horse for the party, but rather a drag. 86 percent of the former Merkel voters would have liked another candidate for chancellor. 71 percent are convinced that too much has recently been about offices and functions. Apparently the Union was able to influence a large part of its voters with its massive campaign against an alliance of the SPD, the Greens and the Left Party. According to Infratest Dimap, 71 percent of Union voters say they voted for the party in order to prevent a left alliance.  

SPD Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz has given his party a massive upswing in the past few weeks. 45 percent of Germans would have voted for Scholz if there had been a direct election. The majority of the SPD votes won come from the Union. Apparently, the SPD, which recently moved significantly to the left, was also able to convince former voters of the Left Party: 600,000 of them voted for the SPD. This could especially be voters in the East who did not buy the left the course between weak government intent and radical opposition. 140,000 voters switched from the FDP to the SPD. The SPD only loses significantly to the Greens, 230,000 voters. According to preliminary figures, however, the SPD can mobilize 330,000 former non-voters for itself. Whether it is with them, as it sometimes seemed during the election campaign,are disappointed supporters of the Social Democrats who are now giving the party another chance?

Both the Union and the SPD have apparently succeeded in this election campaign in convincing former AfD voters.

220,000 voters who voted for the AfD in 2017, this time made their mark on the SPD;

in the Union there were at least 60,000.  

For the Greens, the election result is a defeat, measured against the polls they saw in spring within striking distance of the Chancellery.

Compared to 2017, it is a massive gain, as also emphasized Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock.

Compared to 2017, the Greens won votes from almost all parties.

830,000 votes from the Union, 230,000 from the SPD, 220,000 from the FDP.

The Greens manage to win 220,000 former non-voters for themselves.  

According to the by-election surveys by Infratest Dimap and the Wahlen research group, the Greens as a party have the clearest competencies in the field of climate protection in this election.

For the majority of voters, it is the most important issue.

56 percent of their voters say they know exactly what the Greens stand for.

98 percent of the Greens voters want a coalition participation, for which everything speaks according to the coalition options, which will be discussed in the evening.

It is unusual that 61 percent of those surveyed said they would have preferred another candidate for chancellor from the Greens.  

The survey results of the Greens in spring corresponded to their potential, which they could not exploit in the K-question due to the missteps and mishaps of their top candidate.