The situation between Morocco and Algeria continues to deteriorate.
After announcing, on August 24, the rupture of diplomatic relations between the two countries, Algiers outbid Wednesday, September 22.
This time, the Algerian government announced the immediate closure of its airspace to all Moroccan civil and military planes and to all those registered in the Shereefian kingdom.
Among the reasons given, "the continuation of provocations and hostile practices on the part of Morocco", indicates an official statement, without however specifying the nature of these "provocations".
Pierre Vermeren, professor of contemporary history of the Maghreb at the University of Paris I, returns for France 24 on the causes of this renewed tension between the two countries.
France 24: Relations between the two countries have always been tumultuous. Why this renewed tension now?
Pierre Vermeren:
At the end of August, when Algiers announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Rabat, the Minister of Foreign Affairs invoked deep reasons, which, according to him, date back to 1963. We must not forget that the conflict between the two countries is very complex and is part of the long term, always against the backdrop of the question of sovereignty over Western Sahara and the desire to position itself as the greatest regional power.
In this context, if we have to look for immediate causes, the signing of the Abrahamic accords in the winter of 2020 has certainly contributed to igniting the powder. This multilateral agreement signed by Morocco, the United States, Israel and the Gulf monarchies resulted in Washington's recognition of the Moroccan character of the Sahara. For Algeria, it is clearly a casus belli. Especially since, in recent years, Morocco has scored a lot of points on the diplomatic level and has strengthened itself on the international scene while Algeria, for her part, remained on the sidelines. And it was very badly lived.
Finally, more recently has been added the Pegasus case.
A very large number of Algerian telephone numbers would have been spied on by Rabat, using, therefore, Israeli software.
What further reinforce the anger at the normalization of Israeli-Moroccan relations.
Could the internal situation in Algeria have played a role in this escalation of tensions?
Sure.
Algeria is currently living in a period of transition.
The government is full of uncertainties in the face of Hirak, this protest movement born in February 2019, whose future it is difficult to assess after the long sleep of the Covid-19.
By severing its relations with Morocco, Algiers is pulling on old nationalist strings.
He finds a scapegoat that allows him to look away and point out to the entire population a common, external enemy.
Moreover, during the fires in Kabylia in August 2021, Algeria accused Morocco of being close to the arsonists.
And that too had helped to sour relations between the two countries.
Is there a risk of going as far as a military confrontation?
The two countries have not taken up arms against each other directly since 1963. If the situation continues to escalate, something could happen, but it would be tragic.
And above all, no one wants to come to this.
This would serve neither the interests of Algiers, nor those of Rabat, nor those of their economic partners.
That said, rumors are circulating about border incidents, always possible, whether near Figuig or in the Sahara.
Relations between the two countries were already reduced to a minimum. Concretely, what can the Algerian decision change in the exchanges between the two countries
?
Ties between countries were already very limited, even more so with the Covid-19 pandemic.
The land borders are closed and the economic exchanges almost reduced to nothing, smuggling aside.
Finally, the only notable consequence of this renewed tension concerns energy exchanges and more specifically the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline.
Since 1996, it has linked Algerian deposits in the Sahara to Europe via Morocco.
But the contract between the two neighbors soon expires.
And even if Algeria has not officially announced it, it has repeatedly mentioned bypassing Morocco to deliver its gas.
This would end one of the only significant economic partnerships between the two states.
What consequences can this renewed tension have in the region
?
The Maghreb is the big loser in this story: it is gradually becoming an empty shell.
For good reason, Algeria is increasingly pushing Morocco to give up the Maghreb and find solutions further afield: in Africa, Russia, China and the Middle East.
Today, Rabat seems to have completely abandoned the idea of a regional policy to turn to the international one and it is really a pity for the balance of the region.
How is the international community positioned, and in particular France?
For the moment, the international community remains mostly silent.
Israel reacted to support Morocco, but the two countries' direct partners did not speak out.
For France, it's very complicated.
The Maghreb is the area where she is most influential outside of Europe, and there she sees the region fracturing before her eyes.
But it is deadlocked: it is forced to constantly come to terms with the two powers because it cannot afford to fall out with one or the other.
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