When Michael Sack had another big appearance in the election campaign in the evening rain of Stralsund, the red socks could not be missing.

The CDU's top candidate for the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania stood on the stage with Chancellor Angela Merkel and Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet on Tuesday evening and was allowed to speak for a few minutes.

Matthias Wyssuwa

Political correspondent for Northern Germany and Scandinavia based in Hamburg.

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Like the two of them, he warned against a government in which the Left Party is involved, whether in Schwerin or Berlin.

The difference, however, is that in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania it is more likely that the left will actually soon co-rule.

It would not be the first time.

The CDU has been a junior partner for 15 years

If a new Bundestag is elected on Sunday, the 1.3 million eligible voters in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will be able to vote on a new Landtag.

The SPD has governed Schwerin since 1998, with the Left Party until 2006 and with the CDU as a junior partner for the past 15 years.

The CDU is not doing well, in the polls it is predicted a severe defeat, between twelve and 15 percent it was last.

The SPD can expect a clear victory from Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig, up to 40 percent were most recently predicted for the Social Democrats.

Despite this clarity in the race for first place, there are still questions and uncertainties: How far will the CDU fall?

Will the FDP and the Greens make it into the state parliament again?

And above all: with whom will Schwesig continue to govern?

What is certain is that the AfD will remain in the opposition - and obviously in the state parliament.

In 2016, she moved in for the first time with 20.8 percent and pushed the CDU into third place.

This was followed by some unrest in their ranks, of the original 18 MPs, only 14 are left in the parliamentary group.

The parliamentary group chairman Nikolaus Kramer had to assert himself in the fight for the top candidacy against the parliamentary manager of his group, Ralph Weber, who has since caused a sensation with violent criticism of other AfD candidates.

Matthias Manthei, who won a direct mandate for the AfD in 2016, is running for the CDU this time.

He had criticized the right course of the AfD and has been part of the CDU parliamentary group since 2019.

Despite such a change, the demarcation of the CDU is clear,

Sack repeats it again and again: no coalition with the AfD.

He wants to keep his CDU in government with the SPD.

Schwesig has not yet commented on whether she wants to continue with the CDU.

It is said that the mood between the partners was last cloudy.

And that you first have to see who will actually be in charge of the CDU after the election.

More choice than 2016

In contrast to 2016, the SPD should at least have more choice - at that time, after the strong result of the AfD, only an alliance with the CDU was possible.

In the next state parliament, however, there could be more parliamentary groups than ever before.

Even the FDP and the Greens can hope to take the five percent hurdle.

The Liberals were even allowed to co-rule as junior partners of the CDU, from 1990 to 1994.

After that, however, apart from a brief return to parliament from 2006 to 2011, they mostly had to eke out an extra-parliamentary existence.

In surveys, the party of top candidate René Domke is now five to six percent.

The Greens also move in this order of magnitude.

First of all, they were in the state parliament, and in the 2011 election they managed to move in - a few months after the reactor disaster in Fukushima.

Now it was also hoped that the joint election date with the federal government could help jump over the five percent hurdle.

But it will be tight.

A traffic light coalition of the SPD with the two is conceivable, but enthusiasm does not seem to arise.

After all, the Greens have just cleared an obstacle: their rejection of Nord Stream 2.

"Our fundamental criticism of the project has not changed, it was a mistake," says Harald Terpe, who leads the Greens together with Anne Shepley in the election.

But that is not an obstacle to alliances, he says.

For the Greens, however, it must first be about establishing a parliamentary group and developing a voice in state politics.

You can already hear a little more enthusiasm for a coalition in the Left Party.

"We need a change, but we can change the country from both the opposition and the government," says the top candidate and group leader Simone Oldenburg.

“Neither of these scares us.” Preparations have already been made for soundings.

Oldenburg is threatened with a historically weak result with its party, in surveys it is around ten percent.

When it comes to social issues, there is a lot of overlap with the SPD.

In addition to coping with the consequences of the pandemic and the economy in the country, digitization and education will also be discussed during the election campaign.

The latter is the topic on which the former teacher Oldenburg has long been tough on the state government, her party is demanding more teachers and more money to renovate the schools.

Oldenburg's relationship with Schwesig is also not considered to be straightforward.

“Ms. Schwesig and I had our dances together.

It was sometimes tough, but also good, "she says herself." Now we can meet at eye level. "