The unknown after sixteen years of stability: Germany turns, this Sunday September 26, 2021, the page Angela Merkel during legislative elections more indecisive than ever which augurs long ...

Legislative in Germany: the Merkel era ends with a particularly undecided ballot

Angel Merkel during a speech for the legislative campaign on September 24 in Munich.

AP - Matthias Schrader

Text by: RFI Follow

6 mins

The unknown after sixteen years of stability: Germany turns, this Sunday, September 26, 2021, the page Angela Merkel during legislative elections more indecisive than ever which augur long months of negotiations to form a new government.

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The departure of Angela Merkel, in power since 2005, opens a new political era.

It is the first time since 1949 that the outgoing chancellor has not represented himself.

What majority will succeed the centrist coalition between conservative Christian Democrats CDU / CSU and Social Democrats from the SPD?

Never has the uncertainty been so great in this country until recently accustomed to bi-partism.

The growing sensitivity to climate issues as well as the radicalization of a fringe of the population around migration policy have led to the emergence of two other parties, the Greens and the far right AfD.

Result: the two great movements, and in particular the CDU, saw their electorate melt away.

A last poll published on Tuesday places the SPD at the top of the voting intentions with 25% of the vote against 22% for the CDU, 15% for the Greens and 11% for the AfD.

►

See also: What we will remember from Angela Merkel

This election could deal a blow to the conservatives

of Angela Merkel

who until now had always collected more than 30% of the votes in the legislative elections. Their leader,

the unpopular Armin Laschet

, has the greatest difficulty following in the footsteps of a chancellor of unbroken popularity. Leader of the most populous of German regions, North Rhine-Westphalia (west), this affable, but blundering, 60-year-old man struggles to convince even in his own camp.

Opposite, the Social Democrats are on the rise.

After having chained several electoral setbacks in recent years, the SPD has been able to reverse the trend since the start of the year and the inauguration of its 63-year-old candidate, Olaf Scholz, current vice-chancellor and finance minister.

Environmentalists led by Annalena Baerbock, 40, are expected to play a key role in the future government, even if their third place in voting intentions is a disappointment for activists.

Three candidates have quite different personalities, but all seek to embody continuity with Merkel.

So that basically there are more differences of degree than differences of nature.

Alexandre Robinet-Borgomano, responsible for the Europe program at the Institut Montaigne

Economic programs at the antipodes

All parties have so far ruled out associating with the far right AfD but another formation, the liberals of the FDP, credited with 12% of the voting intentions, is emerging as a kingmaker. They could be the backbone of a three-way alliance with environmentalists and conservatives or social democrats.

However, a coalition government will find it difficult to define economic policy, as the platforms of the main parties are very different.

The question of indebtedness is the most sensitive subject in a country where a balanced budget is engraved in the Constitution.

Due to the health crisis, public debt has increased sharply.

Conservatives and Liberals want a quick return to fiscal orthodoxy.

This is not to the liking of the Social Democrats and the Greens who wish to finance the ecological and digital transition of the country by increasing public spending.

► To read also: Merkel, time to take stock: a European struggling

The other issue on which the main political parties diverge: social policy. The Greens and the Social Democrats want a revaluation of the minimum wage to 12 euros an hour and increase taxes for the richest. The two parties are also in favor of the return of a wealth tax, abolished 24 years ago, and of a reform of the inheritance tax. Measures that the Conservatives, especially the Liberals, refuse. Real differences therefore divide the parties, everything will depend on the balance of the composition of the future coalition which could thus be formed by three political formations.

The results of this election are in any case eagerly awaited and particularly scrutinized in Europe and yet, the theme of the European Union was almost absent from the German electoral campaign, reports

our special correspondent in Aachen,
Anastasia Becchio

. "

Every time I come to Aachen, I think of Europe,

" Angela Merkel said on Saturday during a final campaign rally in the hometown of the CDU candidate.

Armin Laschet, like the other contenders for Angela Merkel's succession, have all avoided putting the European Union at the center of their campaign.

The fate of the EU has been completely absent from the debates, which are entirely focused on national issues, observes Adrian Ziegler, who votes Green today.

“

Many believe that we have to solve our problems in Germany, before focusing on Europe.
Myself, I support the ideas of the pro-European Volt party, but I do not vote for him, because he has no chance of entering Parliament,

”he explains.

Higher participation than four years ago?

Nearly 40 maybe even 50% of Germans who plan to vote this Sunday have already done so, sometimes three or four weeks ago, reports

our correspondent in Berlin,
Pascal Thibaut

. Postal voting is set to break a new record, as we have already seen in regional elections in the spring. They were 29% who had already chosen this solution four years ago. Out of comfort for some to enjoy their Sunday quietly or because personal and professional reasons prevent them from voting physically.

The process is simple: as soon as a voter receives information about his polling station from his town hall, he can fill out a form on the back, until Friday 6 p.m.

Rather, it is the voters who are sure of their choice who opt for this solution, because they decide before the home stretch of the campaign.

Turnout had risen significantly in the last general election four years ago to 76% while Angela Merkel stood for re-election.

The unprecedented suspense this year with the departure of the Chancellor and the polls which have changed significantly in recent months suggest that participation could increase.

Legislative in Germany: the Merkel era ends with a particularly undecided ballot

Legislative in Germany: the Merkel era ends with a particularly undecided ballot

Economic programs at the antipodes

Higher participation than four years ago?

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