Mosul

- A few days separate the Iraqis from the election date, which came months early, as a result of the popular protests that began in October 2019 and led to the resignation of the government of former Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi.

With the number of changes that the Iraqi situation has witnessed politically and economically, and the entry of many parties that were founded after the demonstrations, it seems that the extrapolation of the electoral situation and the upcoming political map are tainted by a lot of complexity, with the adoption of a new electoral law and the efforts of all parties to reserve their seats in Parliament (329 seats) and ensure strong influence in it. to form the next government.

Part of the electoral campaigns and posters of candidates in Kirkuk (Anatolia)

political map

The 2018 legislative elections in Iraq were the first after the war witnessed against the Islamic State, which in the summer of 2014 swept large areas of the northern and western Iraqi provinces.

The past elections resulted in the Sunni political blocs winning 71 seats (representatives from the Sunnis), distributed among the alliances of victory, patriotism and decision, the Baghdad alliance, Nineveh is our identity, the coalition of the masses, Salah al-Din is our identity, Diyala al-Tahadi, Bayariq al-Khair and Tamdun, in addition to "Passers".

On the other hand, the 2018 elections resulted in the victory of the Shiite political blocs together with 177 (Shiite representatives) from various lists whose basis was the alliances of "Sairoon", victory, conquest, the rule of law, wisdom, will and competencies, the Civil Party, the men of Iraq and the Communist Party.

As for the Kurdish Forces Alliance, it won 58 seats, divided between the Kurdistan Democratic Party, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, the Islamic Union, the Islamic Group, Change and the New Movement, as well as the Alliance for Democracy.

The remaining seats were distributed among the Turkmens with 4 seats and the rest of the components and ethnic and national minorities in the country.

government formation

The Iraqi constitution stipulates that the largest bloc that is formed after the elections will form the Iraqi government, which requires it to obtain 165 seats, which no political bloc or party has succeeded in achieving since 2005, so it was forced to announce alliances to form the government.

It is noteworthy that the Iraqi governments formed after 2003 did not face any strong parliamentary blocs in the opposition, which is what the Iraqis termed "governments of national consensus."

Ezzo believes that the membership of the Iraqi parliament is still taking place in accordance with regional and sectarian polarization (Al-Jazeera Net)

prospective map

The Iraqi constitution approved in 2005 guarantees the quota of women in parliament at 25%, which means that the number of parliamentary seats for men does not exceed 246 compared to 83 seats for women, with a total of 329 seats in the Iraqi parliament, including 9 seats for minorities.

Although the previous four parliamentary sessions depended on the electoral districts for each governorate, the new election law established last year was multi-constituency in each governorate, dividing Iraq into 83 electoral districts divided according to the population census of the governorates.

In turn, Mahmoud Ezzo, a professor of political science at the University of Mosul, says that Iraq is still adopting the same formula for obtaining parliamentary seats through polarizations that have been adopted regionally and sectarianly, which means alliances based on doctrine, despite the presence of some cross blocs.

And Ezzo continued, in his speech to Al Jazeera Net, that the spheres of influence still depend on identity and in all Iraqi provinces, but there are clear indications that the political blocs agree not to interfere with each other before the elections, which means that the competing blocs may ally themselves in the future without entering into the issue of identity. Adopted in alliances prior to the elections, according to him.

Ezzo expects that the major bloc will naturally witness alliances of Shiite political forces, which will guarantee them the position of prime minister, which will happen in the positions of the President of the Republic, who will go to the Kurds, and the presidency of Parliament, which will go to the Sunnis.

As for the areas of influence of the same blocs, Ezzo comments that the Sadrist movement relies in the elections on the rural areas of Baghdad, such as the cities of Al-Sadr and Al-Shula, in addition to the provinces of Maysan (southeast), part of Basra and Najaf, and separate seats in the rest of the provinces.

As for the Al-Fateh Alliance, he believes that it has influence in various regions of the center and south of Iraq, given that the parties affiliated with the coalition have multiple discourses, and each of them has its own audience.

While the National Progress Alliance, led by current Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi, has influence inside the northern cities in the governorates of Nineveh, Salah al-Din, Anbar, and part of Diyala, Kirkuk and Baghdad, pointing out that this alliance has another competitor represented by the Azm alliance led by the Sunni politician Khamis al-Khanjar, according to him.

Regarding Kurdish influence, Ezzo explains that the Kurdish blocs are competing in the cities of the Kurdistan region, in addition to some disputed areas with the federal government in the governorates of Nineveh, Salah al-Din, Kirkuk and Diyala.

Al-Janabi believes that the upcoming elections will be different from all previous sessions (Al-Jazeera Net)

complex map

For his part, Muhannad Al-Janabi, Professor of Political Science at Cihan University in Erbil, confirms that these elections are different from all previous sessions, explaining that the Kurdistan Region has 12 electoral districts in the governorates of Erbil, Dohuk and Sulaymaniyah, while the federal government has 71 districts in the other 15 governorates.

In an exclusive interview with Al-Jazeera Net, Al-Janabi comments that, based on the data of the previous elections, and the distribution of influence of the traditional Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish political blocs, 40 of the 71 federal electoral districts will be settled for the traditional forces.

He adds that each political bloc has constituencies that have settled results according to support and loyalty, pointing out that the Sadrist movement owns an electoral machine that he described as "professional," in addition to the fact that the Al-Fateh alliance has great influence in other constituencies, stressing that these divisions may not naturally lead to These blocs are on the same seats as the previous elections.

As for the rest of the alliances, al-Janabi believes that the State Forces coalition - which includes victory led by former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and the Wisdom Alliance led by Ammar al-Hakim - may be third in order, while the State of Law coalition led by Nuri al-Maliki will be harmed, given that the latter's audience is distributed in many circles. , according to him.

As for the "Progress Alliance", he sees that its influence is in Baghdad and Anbar and less than that in Nineveh and Salah al-Din, while the Azm coalition has greater influence in Nineveh, Kirkuk and Salah al-Din, stressing that there is a tendency among many blocs to equalize the exchange of votes between districts according to popular support, meaning The election of a party candidate in a particular constituency in exchange for the election of the other party's candidate in another constituency, according to al-Janabi.

Al-Qassab suggested that the majority of those nominated from the forces of the October protests would not be able to reach the parliament (Al-Jazeera Net)

elective reluctance

There are many efforts made by the Iraqi government and the Electoral Commission to urge people to participate in the elections, after the previous elections revealed an official participation rate that did not exceed 44%.

In this regard, the head of the Al-Mawred Group for Studies and Media, Najm Al-Qassab, believes that all indicators and polls indicate that the majority of those nominated from the forces of the October protests will not be able to reach the parliament.

Al-Qassab attributed this induction to the decrease in the popular desire to participate in the upcoming elections, pointing out that this will adversely affect the traditional political blocs that will benefit from the boycott and the vote of its masses for it.

In his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, Al-Qassab believes that as a result, the next government will be formed from the same traditional political blocs, without there being influential political blocs in the opposition, which is what was customary in previous parliamentary sessions, according to him.

Agwan considered that the areas of influence of the Kurdish political blocs are clear in the regions of the Kurdistan region (Al-Jazeera Net)

On the other hand, Ali Aghwan, professor of political relations at Bayan University, believes that the areas of influence of the Kurdish political blocs are clear in the regions of the Kurdistan region, as the Kurdistan Democratic Party has influence in the governorates of Dohuk and Erbil, while the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan has the areas of Sulaymaniyah, Halabja and part of Kirkuk, pointing to The Change Movement competes strongly with Al-Ittihad in Kirkuk.

As for the Sunni parties, he confirms that the coalition that came forward headed by al-Halbousi and al-Azm headed by al-Khanjar are the strongest competitors in the northern and western provinces, commenting, "Although these two alliances are witnessing fierce competition, the data indicates a great possibility of their alliance in the future."

Going to the traditional Shiite parties, Agwan sees in his interview with Al Jazeera Net that these parties have influence in all Iraqi provinces except for the Kurdistan region, and that these blocs were able to find limited influence for them in the provinces of Nineveh and Salah al-Din by nominating Sunni personalities within these Shiite alliances, according to him.

Regarding the Sadrist movement, Aghwan asserts that it has influence in Baghdad, Nasiriyah and Basra, as is the case with other parties such as the Wisdom Movement and the Islamic Dawa Party, which means that competition in the upcoming elections will be great at the level of traditional parties in their regions.

As for the percentage of change that may occur in the next parliament, Aguan believes that 90% of the traditional parties will return to Parliament, but this may be with other personalities, in return for the October protests forces obtaining 10-15% of Parliament seats in the best case.

There are great difficulties in reading the upcoming political map in Iraq. With the new election law and the Iraqi government's insistence on the integrity of the elections, Iraqis are waiting for the results that will clarify the country's future politically and economically.