At the beginning of this week, the Polish MEP Patryk Jaki presented a report that is supposed to show that Poland has lost almost 120 billion euros since 2004 as a result of its membership in the EU. That would be more than the entire annual budget of the Polish state and a multiple of what the popular social programs cost annually, to which the national-conservative PiS Jarosław Kaczyńskis owes its victories in two consecutive parliamentary elections. Much room has been given to these claims on public television, which has become an aggressive organ of the ruling party.
They do not stand up to serious criticism. According to a calculation made by the Polish Ministry of Finance in July, Poland's quantifiable financial gain from EU membership since 2004 has significantly exceeded this amount. Economists estimate the actual economic benefits Poland will derive from its EU membership many times higher. Added to this is their political importance, on which there was previously consensus across all party lines. Not only since the Russian aggression against Ukraine, membership of the EU, like NATO membership, was considered part of the Polish raison d'etre for reasons of security policy.
Actually, nothing has changed about that - the PiS only recently solemnly confirmed this. But between such assurances and the everyday rhetoric of the PiS there is an ever-deepening abyss. In the words of leading politicians in the government camp, the EU is being stylized, with growing excess, as an enemy of Poland who is carrying out “hybrid attacks” on the country and, as an “occupant”, is placed in line with the National Socialists and Soviets.
This verbal rage has not yet left any deep marks in public opinion. In surveys, approval of EU membership is stable at 80 percent. A major reason for this are the funds from the EU budget, the benefits of which are visible and tangible for many citizens in everyday life. That is why the same politicians, for whom no word is too harsh on the EU, refer to it as malicious slander when the opposition accuses them of the fact that their policies could lead to polexit, Poland's exit from the EU.
Therefore, the government never tires of praising it as a success of its tough negotiations in Brussels that Poland is - or more precisely: could become - one of the biggest beneficiaries of the EU's Corona Reconstruction Fund. Because of their course of confrontation with the EU Commission in the dispute over the rule of law, there is now a real risk that Poland will not receive these many billions of euros. Disregarding European rules gets a price tag that can be very damaging to the PiS.
That is the background against which she now begins to question the financial benefits of EU membership.
It is characteristic of all the actions of this government that in such a situation it does not seek compensation in order to alleviate the damage to its country, but rather intensifies the confrontation, even if this endangers the elementary interests of the Polish state.
The EU is the biggest obstacle for the PiS
This is not only the case in the dispute with the EU. So far it has been an axiom of Polish politics that Poland is only safe if it has good relations with the United States, regardless of who rules there. But in order to get the most important government-critical medium in the country under control, the American-owned TV station TVN24, the PiS is accepting a slowdown in relations with Washington that was unimaginable until a few months ago.
Presumably the PiS does not want to lead Poland out of the EU. But it takes the growing risk of a pole exit because it puts its idea of an authoritarian state and the preservation of its power above everything else and makes it the real reason of state. This is at the heart of the dispute with the EU over the rule of law: the restructuring of the Polish judiciary in recent years serves to downgrade it to an organ of government. The EU is the biggest obstacle on this path.
The repeated postponement of the constitutional court ruling, with which the primacy of national law over EU law is to be established, shows that Warsaw is still shying away from the last step. There are enough people in the government who can count and see what a loss of EU funds would mean for Poland. It is therefore important that the EU Commission now stands firm in its dispute with the Polish government. It owes that to the vast majority of pro-European Poles.
One thing should not be lost sight of in this dispute: it is not a dispute between Poland and the EU.
Brussels is in conflict with a government that has come to power democratically, but wants to abolish the rules of the game of democracy - to the detriment of Polish citizens and all Europeans.