The American researcher and journalist Robert Kagan said that the United States is moving forward towards its largest political and constitutional crisis since the Civil War, with the possibility of mass violence, the collapse of federal authority and the division of the country into warring enclaves whose loyalties vary between Republicans and Democrats over the next three to four years. .
Kagan stressed - in his column in The Washington Post - that the warning signs of this crisis may be obscured by preoccupations with politics, the epidemic, the economy and global crises, or wishful thinking and denial, but there should be no doubt that it exists at all.
On the one hand, Donald Trump will again be the Republican candidate for president in 2024, as it turned out that the hopes and expectations for his image and influence gradually to fade away were pure illusions, as the man enjoys great progress in the opinion polls and builds a huge fund for the electoral war, while the chances of the Democratic party seem weak.
On the other hand, Trump and his Republican allies are actively preparing to ensure that he wins the next presidential election by any means, and the accusations of fraud that he made against his rival Joe Biden during the last presidential elections in 2020 have become the basis for challenging any future outcome that may not be in his favor, as some Republican candidates have already begun preparing To repeat the cylinder manipulation of the results of the elections in 2022.
At the same time, the cliched "Stop The Theft" campaign of 2020 has given way to an organized nationwide campaign to ensure Trump and his supporters have control of local and state election officials that they lacked during the 2020 election.
These Republican officials, who reject Trump's approach, Kagan adds, have saved the country from disaster by refusing to falsely state fraud or trying to "find" more votes for Trump, and are now systematically harassed and removed from office one by one, in this way the legislatures grant The republic itself has greater control over the process of ratifying the election results.
The theater is then set for chaos, Kagan adds, and if we imagine weeks of competing mass protests across multiple states where legislators from both parties claim victory and accuse the other of unconstitutional efforts to seize power, then partisans on both sides will be better armed and more willing to inflict damage on the other. Other than they were in 2020.
And then will state governors call in the National Guard to calm the situation?
Will President Biden nationalize the guard and put it under his control?
Or will he invoke the Insurrection Act and send troops to, say, Pennsylvania, Texas, or Wisconsin to quell violent protests?
Kagan concludes that the deployment of federal forces in the states will be condemned as "tyranny", and President Biden will find himself in the same position experienced by previous American presidents - such as President Andrew Jackson during the "revocation crisis" in 1832 that was a prelude to the Civil War and Abraham Lincoln after the secession of the South - decide It has no clear rules or precedents, and it issues personal judgments about what constitutional powers it possesses or does not possess.