The subheading of my last letter to you read: “Serious signs of disintegration are becoming apparent in the Erdoğan and AKP electorate.

The disintegration is also evident in the bureaucracy, even in the party of the Turkish president. ”I said that Erdoğan's and his party’s vote potential has been eroded considerably, mainly due to the economic crisis, and I pointed out that the palace government would probably be in election year 2023 is shaken.

Some of you apparently found the subtitle and my theses in the text to be exaggerated.

The word “wishful thinking” even appeared in the comments on the FAZ website.

On the Turkish version of the column


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Now, last week, the polling company ORC, which is known for its proximity to the AKP, published a study, the results of which look at least as pessimistic as my last letter. In the past, ORC announced exaggerated positive results to encourage the AKP base, and the pro-government press liked to make the headlines. However, the propaganda based on studies by this company often contradicted the election results. Before the elections on June 7, 2015, ORC had predicted a clear victory for Erdoğan. One had to apologize when the AKP then lost the absolute majority to sole power. (Who cares: Erdoğan didn't like the election results any more than did the survey company, he had the elections repeated and “won” in second gear on November 1, 2015.)

The polls are clear

The current ORC poll now shows that the votes for the AKP have fallen to 32 percent.

In the last parliamentary elections in 2018, it had come to 42.5 percent.

It is no less sensitive that the vast majority of the population does not want to wait until 2023 to decide the fate of Erdoğan and his AKP.

Sixty percent of respondents want new elections sooner.

The ORC analyzes are as interesting as their results:

- Even if a quota as high as 60 percent think early elections are necessary, the proportion of those who consider the government to have failed is even higher.

- Almost 40 percent of voters who voted for Erdoğan in the last presidential election are now calling for early elections.

- The ongoing economic hardship would have brought the AKP's core electorate to their knees.

The feeling that law and democracy are in decline does not make the AKP base shrink so much, but it weakens the conviction that it can increase its vote potential again.

- The discourse “let's get up now” is more dangerous for the AKP than anything else.

If the decline continues at the same rate as in July / August, it can be said that the position of the AKP as the strongest party is in jeopardy.

Despite the dramatic fall in his vote, Erdoğan continues to deny that there is any crisis at all.

Although the price increase is going through the roof, regardless of whether it is for rent or for food, he explains: “What are you puffing up, there is no problem that would be puffing up.” Instead of taking structural measures to stimulate the economy, he says: “We will stop the steep price increases on the signs in the shop windows, ”and sends inspectors to the supermarkets.

While Erdoğan denies poverty, pictures of First Lady Emine Erdoğan posing with her watch, which is worth 30,000 euros, have gone viral.