Red, red, green.

It is a mixture of colors that comes up more and more often in German political discussions three days before the general elections on Sunday 26 September.

It designates the possible government coalition between the Social Democrats of the SPD, the radical left party Die Linke, and the Greens.

This is the first time in the history of post-war Germany that such a prospect seems credible.

And it is all the more astonishing that Die Linke is not even guaranteed to obtain the precious 5% of the votes, the minimum necessary to be represented in the Bundestag (the equivalent of the National Assembly).

Die Linke ready to compromise

“There are two factors which explain why a coalition between these three formations is, this time, taken seriously: first, it is the first time that the two other parties - the SPD and the Greens - have not have not completely ruled out this possibility, and according to polls, such a team could mathematically have an absolute majority in the Bundestag ”, summarizes Thorsten Holzhauser, political scientist at the Theodor-Heuss-Haus foundation and specialist in the Die Linke party, contacted by France 24.

Given the good scores expected from Olaf Scholz's SPD and Annalena Baerbock's Greens, it would be enough for Die Linke to get 5 or more for a red-red-green coalition to be possible.

Moreover, the leaders of Die Linke are very much in favor of participation in the government.

The party published a “sofortprogramm” (measures to be applied immediately in the event of accession to power) thus indicating that the candidates of Die Linke were in a constructive dynamic worthy of a governing party and not only in criticism.

Janine Wissler, co-president of Die Linke, repeats, moreover, at length of interviews that the campaign promises of the SPD or the Greens would be much easier to apply with them than with the liberals of the FDP.

This enthusiasm for the idea of ​​governing may come as a surprise coming from a party made up, in part, of former communists from the former East Germany who still have a grudge against the Western democratic model.

Especially since a radical current, opposed to any compromise with the establishment parties, dominates the Die Linke group in the Bundestag. 

But, for Thorsten Holzhauser, it is precisely the story of Die Linke that allows us to better understand their appetite for power.

“They come from the SED - that is to say the Unified Socialist Party of East Germany - a group used to exercising power in the former GDR and which has this ambition tied to the body”, recalls the political scientist German.

In addition, Die Linke has already “demonstrated its ability to make compromises to enter government at regional level”, underlines Thorsten Holzhauser.

In 1998, the ancestor of Die Linke, the PSD (Party of Democratic Socialism) participated in several coalitions in eastern Länder such as Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania or in Berlin from 2002. Die Linke even did a foray west by participating in a government in Bremen in 2019.

The SPD and the Greens a little less

The blockages came more from the SPD and, to a lesser extent, from the Greens. “Part of the SPD is traditionally anti-communist, and there is a liberal wing that wants nothing to do with the so-called extreme left”, analyzes Thorsten Holzhauser. In addition, the Social Democrats have not digested the birth of Die Linke since the party is the result of the merger, in 2007, between the ex-communists of the PSD and members of the SPD who left the ship to protest against the leadership of the then party.

With the Greens, there is not this passive which complicates relations.

But “they have a radically different approach to German foreign policy,” recalls the political scientist from the Theodor-Heuss-Haus foundation.

Die Linke is much more protectionist in his vision of the world and does not want Germany to participate in military engagements abroad.

In fact, one of the historical cornerstones of the Die Linke program is the will to get Germany out of NATO and to work for its dismantling in the more or less long term.

This opposition to the North Atlantic military alliance has often been presented as the major obstacle for a government coalition between the SPD and Die Linke in Berlin.

But proof of the progress made on the eve of the general elections of September 26, the leaders of Die Linke have suggested that they would be less dogmatic on the NATO issue.

And the SPD said that if these heirs to the Eastern Communists recognize the Alliance, anything is now possible.

“Currently, a majority of the SPD and the Greens find that their programs are broadly compatible with that of Die Linke.

Olaf Scholz, the SPD candidate for chancellery, is perhaps one of the least enthusiastic ”, summarizes Thorsten Holzhauser.

But he will bow to the party's opinion if the formation of a government majority depends on it, believes the Süddeutsche Zeitung, the big center-left German daily.

Objective: obtain more than 5%

The last obstacle to this red-red-green coalition therefore comes from the risk for Die Linke of not crossing the vital threshold of 5% during the election.

The party is attacking German voters with several disabilities, according to Thorsten Holzhauser.

“First of all, it is a movement that appears to be divided - between its radical current and its more pragmatic members - and German voters have difficulty with formations that do not project an image of unity”, underlines- he. 

Then, Die Linke - which got a new leadership in February 2021 - lacks a natural leader like Olaf Scholz for the SPD, or Annalena Baerbock for the Greens.

And their most charismatic personality, MP Sahra Wagenknecht, is ostracized within the party itself because she is seen as too radical. 

In a poll published last August, however, she came third among the most popular political figures in Germany, tied with Olaf Scholz, recalls the Süddeutsche Zeitung.

In other words, Die Linke approaches the election without a credible candidate for the post of chancellor “while a large number of voters also decide on the basis of who they would like to see Angela Merkel succeed”, concludes Thorsten Holzhauser.

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