Indo-Pacific: the revival of the Quad, a tool against China?
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison during a virtual Quad meeting with US President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on March 13, 2021. AP - Dean Lewins
Text by: Christophe Paget Follow
5 mins
This Friday, September 24, the four Quad countries will meet in Washington.
This security dialogue between the United States, Japan, Australia and India must defend their interests in the Indo-Pacific.
Its members seem to want to give it more importance, mainly in the face of China's influence in the region.
This Friday will be the first Quad meeting where the four heads of state and government will be present.
Advertising
Read more
The Quadrilateral Dialogue for Security was launched in 2007, but put on hold because of Australia, which wanted to be "
less divisive vis-à-vis China
", explains Delphine Allès, professor of political science and international relations at Inalco, the Institute of Oriental Languages and Civilizations in Paris. Since then, its positions have evolved, but also those of New Delhi "
because of the increasingly pronounced way in which Beijing has used its forces at its expense
," underlines Michael Shoebridge, specialist in defense issues at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. .
There were the clashes on the border between India and China; China's projection of increasing political and economic influence in India's immediate neighborhood, particularly in Pakistan; and the clear will of the Chinese to project their military might, including in the Indian Ocean.
"
Australia, in the midst of a trade war with China, has followed the same path as New Delhi. After the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, she had requested an investigation to find out its origin, which had greatly displeased Beijing. Result: “
For a year and a half, Beijing has been exerting economic constraints on Canberra, for a total of 20 billion dollars in trade. This has caused a fundamental change in Australia compared to China,
”says Michael Shoebridge. A change materialized by the announcement of the Aukus partnership between the United Kingdom, the United States and Australia, "
which of course had very direct and damaging consequences on the partnership between France and Australia
".
►
To read also: Virtual Quad Summit: a partnership to contain the influence of China
Meeting in the midst of a diplomatic crisis
The Quad meeting this Friday is therefore being held in the midst of a diplomatic crisis: France did not appreciate that Australia did not buy its submarines as planned but those of the United States.
And if it is not part of the Quad, it remains a power of the Indo-Pacific.
This crisis will certainly be at the center of the discussions, especially since, according to Delphine Allès, “
it seems that the United States and Australia did not anticipate the intensity of the French reaction, and therefore will perhaps reflect on how to evolve or try to ease tensions or prolong cooperation
". Because, explains the researcher, France was one of the States outside the Quad which tended to cooperate more and more, in particular within the framework of meetings or military exercises, known as the “Quad Plus” in which France participated regularly. "
Failure to act together to face the systemic challenge that China presents because of the problems posed today by the relationship between France and Australia would be a strategic failure that none of us want to see
" , says Michael Shoebridge.
In the meantime, the situation with France remains complicated. Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron spoke this Wednesday, September 22 on the phone. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison is still waiting. But this Friday, the Quad intends anyway to think about new potential partners in the region. Especially since it sees itself, recalls Delphine Allès, "
as a force for stability in the Indo-Pacific, and potentially a provider of aid and assistance capable of competing with the Chinese offer as part of its program. of its "New Silk Roads"
”. The Quad reflects in particular on the participation of South-East Asian states, "
those who choose to remain non-aligned with China,especially those who control the straits
".
And the researcher to quote Indonesia but also Vietnam and the Philippines, two allies of the United States - Manila has also welcomed "
with open arms
" the announcement of the trilateral agreement United States - Australia - India.
►
To listen: Virtual Quad Summit: "India is gradually settling into a strategic game against China"
Quads and the fight against Covid-19: more than a discussion forum
Even before expanding this forum to the Indo-Pacific, the Quad intends to make its contribution to the fight against Covid-19 in the region. There was a first meeting on this subject in March, but the objectives were not met. "
The four countries had announced that they would increase vaccine production and distribution in the Indo-Pacific
," notes Michael Shoebridge.
But India's fight against the Delta variant has kept it from exporting vaccines. I think that will change in the next six months, so that will be a topic of discussion on Friday.
"
“
We can see that the Quad is no longer just a place to exchange opinions, but a place where we act,
” points out the researcher.
China's position has also evolved: after looking down on the Quad, it is now denouncing the formation in Asia of the equivalent of a NATO directed against it.
But Delphine Allès stresses that the Quad is not a military alliance, it remains a simple strategic partnership.
“
Its mode of operation has nothing to do with NATO: the Quad is not institutionalized, it is not a binding commitment, and it is not intended to deploy troops.
"
►
To read also: Virtual Quad Summit: Japan reflects on its relationship with the Chinese neighbor
Afghanistan
Note that the Quad should also talk this Friday about Afghanistan, a little over a month after the conquest of the country by the Taliban.
India is obviously very interested in the consequences for its security of the withdrawal of the Americans, and also in what it implies for its Pakistani neighbor.
The four countries, explains Michael Shoebridge, will also talk about it because they need to continue their fight against terrorism: "
in this regard, nobody thinks that the situation will be improved with the withdrawal from Afghanistan
..."
Newsletter
Receive all international news directly in your mailbox
I subscribe
Follow all the international news by downloading the RFI application
google-play-badge_FR
United States
India
Japan
Australia
China
Defense
Nato