Priority to safety, Xavier Bertrand's lead over his competitors and mixed opinions on the primary… The large opinion poll commissioned by LR was revealed on Wednesday, while the right struggles to find its candidate for the presidential election.

Commissioned in early June, this qualitative survey was intended to be broader than the classic polls, which for several months have placed Xavier Bertrand in the lead without crushing the match against his competitors - Valérie Pécresse, Michel Barnier, Eric Ciotti and Philippe Juvin.

Carried out from August 30 to September 16 with 15,242 right-wing French people, including 2,980 LR sympathizers, this extraordinary study first identified the priority themes of this electorate: we find, in order, security, health, delinquency, Islamism and illegal immigration. The pollsters then tested the various candidates.

In terms of popularity, Xavier Bertrand is slightly ahead of Valérie Pécresse in the right-wing electorate (53% against 51%).

On the other hand among the only LR sympathizers the report is reversed, the president of Ile-de-France collecting 81% of good opinions, against 79% to her rival.

On the items deemed priority, Xavier Bertrand is more clearly ahead of his rivals: 40% of French right-wingers trust him to act on security and terrorism (against 21% in Valérie Pécresse and Eric Ciotti), 39% on delinquency ( against 24% in Valérie Pécresse), 36% to fight against illegal immigration (against 24% in Eric Ciotti and 22% in Valérie Pécresse), and finally 35% in health (against 30% in Valérie Pécresse).

Pécresse not far from Bertrand among the LR militants

The president of Hauts-de-France also appears to be the best placed in the presidential race, 71% of right-wing voters deeming him capable of beating Emmanuel Macron, against 56% for Valérie Pécresse and 38% for Michel Barnier.

Finally in terms of image, Xavier Bertrand comes out on top for most of the traits tested - from the ability to reform to knowledge of the territories, including proximity to the French.

But he is followed or even outstripped, in the right-wing electorate, by Michel Barnier on several points (stature of head of state, ability to manage a crisis…).

With LR activists, on the other hand, Valérie Pécresse follows Xavier Bertrand on almost all points (proximity, capacity for reform…), playing an equal role with him on the capacity to bring people together.

Our dossier on the presidential election

This investigation also aimed to determine the best way to nominate the candidate, while the management of LR is hostile to the idea of ​​primary which it sees a source of artificial divisions.

The voters seem divided: 60% of them are certainly in favor of a congress of members, in "consultation" with the other formations of the right and the center, to support a candidate "without prior organization of primary".

58% welcome the appointment of the one "who, in three or four successive opinion polls, would collect the best score in the first round".

But the primary, open or semi-open, still has the favors of 47 to 50% of right-wing supporters, while the activists will meet in congress on Saturday, to decide on the mode of designation.

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  • Michel barnier

  • Eric Ciotti

  • Presidential election

  • Xavier Bertrand

  • Valerie Pécresse

  • The Republicans (LR)