[Depth of the Time] Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election, faction politics can no longer be finalized
[Global Times Special Correspondent Jiang Feng in Japan Global Times Correspondent Xing Xiaojing] On September 29, the voting for the presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan will officially begin. Japan’s former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Liberal Democratic Party’s former political chairperson Fumio Kishida, Japan’s Minister of Administrative Reform, Kono Taro, Sanae Takaichi, the former Minister of General Affairs of Japan, and Seiko Noda, acting secretary of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party, will compete fiercely.
The election of the president of the Liberal Democratic Party has always been a political contest between factions within the party, and the selection of the prime minister of Japan is also the result of the operation of the factions.
However, in this election, no candidate who is well-respected by the public can bridge the rift within the factions. The faction-dominated situation in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election is facing challenges.
At the same time, as the young and strong factions in the party began to awaken, the calls for the elimination of faction politics have become increasingly louder.
However, it is foreseeable that the struggle between the various factions will still play a role in the next presidential election and the election of the 100th prime minister.
The Yoshihide Suga government makes all factions sad
Many people clearly remember that exactly a year ago, in September 2020, when Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe suddenly announced his resignation due to illness, the seven major factions in the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party that had been quiet for a long time quickly became active. Among them, the five major factions unanimously agreed to elect the Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, who has been the "big steward" in Shinzo Abe's cabinet, to re-appoint the Liberal Democratic Party's president and then become the Prime Minister of Japan. Throw it out mercifully.
No one thought that a year later, when Yoshihide Suga announced that he would no longer participate in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election as scheduled, that is, he would no longer seek re-election as the prime minister of Japan, the five factions that once united to support him, there was no faction leader. He came forward to retain him, and then four candidates appeared one after another, Fumio Kishida, Taro Kono, Sanae Takaichi, and Seiko Noda.
Except for Kishida Fumio’s support from the Kishida faction, behind the other three candidates there was neither the joint support of the major factions nor the unanimous support of a faction.
Some analysts believe that the most unexpected fruit of the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election in Japan in 2021 is not who is elected as the president, but that the factional forces within the Liberal Democratic Party are falling apart.
So, why did the Liberal Democratic Party factionist forces that have made a comeback in such a situation a year later?
In an interview with the Global Times, a member of the second-tier Liberal Democratic Party who did not want to be named said that Yoshihide Suga’s performance in power in any given year has made all factions sad.
They did not expect that the approval rating of Suga Yoshihide, which was as high as 70% when he took office, could drop to less than 30% in just one year.
This has caused Japanese society to begin to have a sense of distrust of the Liberal Democratic Party’s vision and ability to choose candidates.
In addition, Yoshihide Suga, who relied on the support of the five factions to come to power, relied on his long-term experience as a minister and chief cabinet secretary. After taking office as prime minister, he did not listen to the opinions of any faction leaders. The influence of the valve is greatly reduced.
A reporter from the Political Department of Japan's "Asahi Shimbun" told the "Global Times" that up to now, people's evaluation of Yoshihide Suga is still mixed.
However, before the election, Yoshihide Suga's request for the resignation of Toshihiro Nikai, a Liberal Democratic Party leader in his 80s, caused an earthquake in Japanese politics.
At first, it was Toshihiro Nikai’s first voice to support Suga Yoshihide as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party. Since then, Yoshihide Suga has gained support from all major factions.
Toshihiro Nikai was therefore called "the father of the Yoshihide Suga regime."
However, unexpectedly, Yoshihide Suga was ungrateful and slashed at his political benefactor with a knife.
This move has had a huge impact on the Liberal Democratic Party faction politics.
To this day, Nikai Toshihiro is still saying, "I haven't raised the flag in this presidential election." This shows that Nikai Toshihiro also realizes that the faction can't make a final decision.
Lu Yaodong, a researcher at the Institute of Japanese Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, explained to a reporter from the Global Times that last year’s Liberal Democratic Party presidential election was held before the term of office of then president Shinzo Abe had expired. Play a decisive role.
And this year's four candidates need to compete for 382 votes for members of Congress and 382 votes for party members and party members in the first round of voting, thus forming a situation of equal importance between the central and local governments.
Moreover, due to the different opinions of the factions within the party, it is difficult to predict the direction of the votes of the members. The votes of party members and party members will play a greater role, and the weight of local votes will increase.
"What is different from previous Liberal Democratic Party presidential elections is that among the seven major factions in the party, except for the Kishida faction who supported Fumio Kishida, the other six factions failed to reach a unified opinion on the recommended candidates. It is rare to adopt independent voting. "Lv Yaodong said that from the current situation, it is an indisputable fact that no matter who can be elected as the new president in the end, the influence of factions in the Liberal Democratic Party will be weakened.
An "election face" that can lead the Liberal Democratic Party to win the general election
In the first round of voting on September 29, four candidates will compete for 764 votes. The candidate with the first vote and more than half of the valid votes will be directly elected president.
Otherwise, the top two candidates with votes will continue to compete in the second round of voting, the "runoff vote."
The second round of "run-off voting" had a total of 429 votes, including 382 votes from members of the Diet and 47 votes from prefectures and prefectures.
The interim parliament is expected to convene on October 4, when the 100th Japanese prime minister will be elected.
Taking a closer look at the four candidates who participated in the election of the president of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party, except for Taro Kono who belongs to the Aso faction and Fumio Kishida belongs to the Kishida faction, the other two female candidates are all "unaffiliated", that is, people without faction.
This 2:2 ratio also allows people to see the weakening of the faction.
At the same time, even Taro Kono, a candidate from the Aso faction, did not get the unanimous support of all the members of the faction.
Although Takaichi Sanae's participation in the election was supported by Shinzo Abe, the Hosoda faction to which the latter belongs was split into two. Some people supported it and others opposed it.
At present, there are seven factions in the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party. According to the number of members, they are Hosoda faction (96 persons), Aso faction (53 persons), Takeshita faction (52 persons), second order faction (47 persons), Kishida faction ( 46 persons), Ishiba faction (16 persons), Ishihara faction (10 persons).
In addition, there are also the "Tanigaki group (17 people)" led by the former secretary of the Liberal Democratic Party, Hasegaki (17 people) and no faction (46 people).
According to the analysis of Nihon Keizai Shimbun, a major principle of the Liberal Democratic Party in the past was to take unified action in the presidential election. In return, the faction can provide three major resources for members of the Diet: campaign funds, positions, and promotion in elections. Recognition.
But now, factions no longer manage the funds and positions of their members. Instead, they are managed by the Executive Department of the Liberal Democratic Party. This reduces the benefits of loyalty to the factions.
The current situation of the faction revealed in the presidential election also shows that the policy that should be used as a cohesive force is also missing.
According to the report, the policy features of various factions were very distinctive before, such as the "income doubling plan" of the former prime minister Ikeda, the "reconstruction theory of the Japanese archipelago" by the former prime minister Kakuei Tanaka, and the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan.
The faction leaders mainly put forward policies on the economic and diplomatic aspects. The faction as a whole unites with the goal of realizing these policies and transforms them into the driving force to promote the faction leaders to the position of president.
However, the current factionist policy is very weak. If the relationship between the policy and the individual leader weakens, the factionist may be reduced to a simple community of interests.
"Nihon Keizai Shimbun" commented that, coupled with factionists’ inability to allocate funds and positions and other “benefits” as they did in the past, they will naturally lose their unity.
Especially since there is no unanimous "winner" this time, it is even more difficult for the factions to unify their opinions.
A Japanese analyst told the "Global Times" reporter that the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election and the upcoming general election-the House of Representatives election is very short. It is not so much that members of various factions care about who can become the president of the Liberal Democratic Party. They are more concerned about who can be. Leading the Liberal Democratic Party to win the House of Representatives election because it is closely related to its own seats.
In other words, the standard for presidential election is not necessarily the unified opinion of the factions, but an "election face" that can lead the Liberal Democratic Party to win the general election.
The analyst said that based on the above considerations, the Liberal Democratic Party pays more attention to the public opinion support of candidates.
According to the latest public opinion survey conducted by major Japanese media, more than 40% of the respondents who answered "Taro Kono" to the question of "who is most suitable to be the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party" are far ahead of the other three candidates.
Observing the list of 20 Liberal Democratic Party congressmen who recommended Kono Taro for the election, we can also find that the referees spanned six other factions except the Kishida faction, including those who are close to Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga.
Young parliamentarians hope to "vote by themselves" according to their wishes
"Taro Kono's participation can be seen as an election campaign to leave the faction. It shows that the young and strong factions in the Liberal Democratic Party are no longer optimistic about the politics of the elderly, and the faction politics within the party is shaken." Lu Yaodong said, "The opposition between the young and strong factions and the veterans. It is also one of the reasons why it is difficult for the factions in the party to unify opinions." Taro Kono deliberately participated in the election of the president of the Liberal Democratic Party last year.
Although this year did not receive the positive support of Aso Taro, but with the strong support of the party's young and strong faction, Kono Taro's participation in the election has become unstoppable.
This is also reflected in another candidate, Sanae Takashi.
Although the former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe expressed support for him and he has a greater influence in the Hosoda faction, the largest faction in the party, there are still people in the faction who expressed support for Kono Taro and Kishida Fumio.
It is worth noting that just a week before the announcement of the Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election announcement, former Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda and member of the House of Representatives Tatsuo Fukuda led the party’s 90 young and strong members to form the "Party Style Renewal Conference" in an effort to break the party affiliation. The status quo that the valve power is too concentrated.
According to Japanese media reports such as Yahoo News, Fukuda has repeatedly stated that the concentration of power will cause the political parties to stagnate.
In the presidential election, it is important for the citizens to see the voting process according to their own will, rather than let the factions decide the winner before the vote.
In this regard, Japan’s "Asahi Shimbun" commented that the strong determination to win in the House of Representatives election has made the young people in the Liberal Democratic Party brave to change, strive to get rid of the shackles of factions, vote on their own, and choose those who can lead them to victory in the House of Representatives election. Strong leader.
Ryo Uchiyama, a professor at the Graduate School of Comprehensive Cultural Studies at the University of Tokyo, told the Global Times reporter that with the change of generations, young party members and young congressmen within the Liberal Democratic Party began to grow up.
They saw that the rulers of faction leaders could not be supported by the people, and they were often criticized by voters in their own constituencies, asking them why they had to determine such a candidate, which made many elected to Congress for the first and second time. Members of parliament feel very embarrassed, and it will also affect their re-election.
Now, some young congressmen have established a cross-factional "party style reform meeting", hoping to "vote on their own initiative" to elect the president of the Liberal Democratic Party according to their own wishes. This has also led to the decline of factional politics.
Professor Uchiyama Ryo emphasized that although the factionalism of the Liberal Democratic Party is declining, it does not mean that this kind of faction politics will end immediately.
Candidates with factions have to strive for the support of other factions in addition to their own factions.
Candidates without faction need to be exquisite and win the support of more faction members.
In addition, this kind of faction politics has become a tradition, and it is not a day's work to crack it.
Judging from the current campaign propaganda of the four candidates, most of them were playing a "tough card" against China in the early stage, and their words were more ruthless than one.
However, recently the voice on China has generally been lowered. Kono Taro publicly stated that if he can be elected, he must take the line of dialogue with China and establish a regular dialogue mechanism between the Japanese and Chinese high-levels. No matter what happens, this dialogue mechanism must be maintained and the high-level will be maintained. Communication.
Kishida Fumio said that if he is elected, he will make his own efforts in the so-called human rights and must resolutely deal with China's human rights issues.
Analysts pointed out that this is an olive branch extended by Fumio Kishida to the United States, hoping to match the human rights content of the US Biden regime's China policy and win US support for his candidacy.
Sanae Takaichi is known as the "most right-wing politician" in Japanese politics. She can be said to be "all-round anti-China". From politics to economics, from military to science and technology, she is ubiquitous, and even goes to Anti" to the point.
However, Japanese society has not tolerated extreme right-wing politicians for a long time, and Takaichi Sanae is therefore called a "bubble candidate" and is in a state of marginalization.
However, Seiko Noda, who has been concerned about Japan's internal affairs for a long time, has no strengths in diplomacy.
In 2015, she also mentioned in a TV interview that the United States was antagonistic to China over the South China Sea issue, and had nothing to do with Japan. Japan should adopt an independent diplomatic route without standing in line, and was attacked by some Japanese right-wing forces.
Now, she avoids making too many speeches on the China issue.
Judging from the current state of affairs, Kono Taro has always been in a high position in various public opinion surveys and is known as the "net celebrity politician" in Japanese society.
Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party factionists have found it difficult to use their power to select a president who violates public opinion.
This is perhaps the biggest highlight of this Liberal Democratic Party presidential election.
Furthermore, the faction politics of the Liberal Democratic Party showed a kind of "rest" this time, not a "rest".