On the 15th of this month, under the leadership of the United States, the United States, Britain and Australia announced the establishment of a so-called "new trilateral security partnership." The United States and Britain will support the Australian Navy in establishing a nuclear submarine force.
Australia also tore up the tens of billions of dollars of submarine orders signed with the French Naval Group.
This move triggered dissatisfaction and accusations from French officials.
So, Australia, Britain and the United States jointly "stabbed" France, who will be the final winner in the end?
Today we are going to pay attention to several issues:
1. "Knife stabbed in the back" When was France calculated?
2. Why is Australia eager to ease the tension between Australia and France after the "stabbing"?
3. How will "America First" and European "Strategic Independence" play a game in the future?
Let's get to know the latest development of things first.
On the 20th local time, French Foreign Minister Le Drian, who participated in the 76th United Nations General Assembly in New York, held a press conference to continue to "shell" Australia and the United States for conspiring to tear up the submarine contract.
Le Drian emphasized that this is not just a matter of a military contract, but more serious is the breakdown of trust among allies.
"Knife stabbed in the back" When did France begin to be calculated?
According to current information, on the 15th of this month, after the United States, Britain and Australia announced the establishment of the so-called "new trilateral security partnership" and the United States and Britain will support the Australian Navy to establish a nuclear submarine force, the French side only got the news-Australia tore up tens of billions. Big single dollar submarine.
According to the British "Times" and many other foreign media outlets, this cooperation plan between the United States, Britain and Australia has actually been planned for a long time, but France, as their ally, has been kept in the dark until now. Remember sap.
In the face of interests, the Western camps are friendly face-to-face and secretly calculating.
British media: Australia asked the three parties in March this year to secretly finalize in June
The British "Times" reported that as early as in a meeting in March this year, the Australian Navy Commander Michael Noonan asked the British First Secretary of the Sea Tony Radakine whether the United Kingdom and the United States could help Australia build a nuclear submarine force.
Soon, the British government launched a top-secret plan code-named "Operation No Hook". Only ten people including Prime Minister Johnson, Secretary of Defense Wallace, First Secretary of the Navy Radhakin and then Foreign Secretary Rab participated. "The Times" described it as the most closely guarded confidential matter of the British government in years.
When the time came to June, while the G7 summit was held in the UK, US President Biden, British Prime Minister Johnson and Australian Prime Minister Morrison had a secret discussion on cooperation matters and finalized some details. French President Macron who also participated in the meeting was about this. Know nothing.
Morrison visited France after the summit and did not mention this when he met with Macron.
French Ambassador to Australia Jean-Pierre Tabor: The President and we have never been informed in any form that this project is undergoing such a huge change, and no one has given us such a hint.
ABC reporter: How did you know that the submarine contract was cancelled?
French Ambassador to Australia Jean-Pierre Tabor: Like everyone, I learned about it through media reports.
ABC reporter: Do you know when the French president discovered it?
French Ambassador to Australia Jean-Pierre Tabor: The President was also notified after the news reached the media.
US media: Australia seeks cooperation after Biden took office as president at the beginning of the year
The New York Times of the United States also broke the news that shortly after Biden assumed office at the beginning of this year, Australia contacted the new US government and stated that it would abandon its submarine contract with France and seek cooperation with the United Kingdom and the United States. The United States also chose to deal with France. hide.
Australian media said this matter may have been brewing for 18 months
Australia's "Sydney Morning Herald" quoted the French ambassador to Australia, Tebo, to advance the timeline significantly, saying that this matter may have been brewing for a full 18 months, and France has been deliberately deceived.
Australian Trade Minister: Seeking a meeting with France to ease tensions
In the context of France's anger of "stabbing a knife in the back" and recalling its ambassador, Australia can't stand still.
Also on the 20th, Australian Trade Minister Dan Tehan said that he would seek to hold a meeting with France to ease the tensions caused by the cancellation of the French submarine order, and expressed confidence that this matter will not confuse the EU-Australia trade negotiations. Shadows.
Dan Tehan told ABC Radio on the 20th that he was "very eager" to meet with the French Minister of Trade when he visited Paris in October.
He also stated that "in terms of our free trade agreement negotiations, everything is business as usual."
After "stabbing" France, why is Australia eager to ease the tension between Australia and France?
How do they explain it to the French side?
Australia's grievances: self-confidence will not affect EU-Australia trade negotiations
We have noticed that Australia recently complained that it had filed an objection to the submarine procurement agreement between the two countries with France several months ago.
At the same time, Australia also expressed its belief that the trade negotiations between the EU and Australia will not be affected.
How do we view this series of actions in Australia?
The EU has expressed its intention to postpone negotiations on the free trade agreement.
What is the prospect of agreement negotiation?
Will it end there?
Special commentator Su Xiaohui: It is clear that Australia is not for France, but for its own benefit.
Currently, Australia is mainly concerned about two trends. One is whether it will let itself become a dishonest person, and the other is that it involves some of its own personal economic interests.
The EU has announced further details of the EU version of the Indo-Pacific strategy, which involves the EU's belief that economic and trade interests in the Indo-Pacific region are important interests pursued by the EU. In Australia, such a series of developments are now facing difficulties. It may cause some obstacles or even delays to the progress of related negotiations without the signing of trade agreements.
But in the long run, Australia is convinced that the advancement of this economic and trade agreement in the future is an inevitable result, so it will show such confidence now.
France recalls its ambassador to the United States and Australia: very rare among allies
On the 20th local time, Etienne, the ambassador to the United States who had returned to France, said that the recall shows that France has serious concerns about the bilateral relations between France and the United States.
This wave of operations by the United States, Britain and Australia caught France off guard.
France is angrily recalling its ambassador. In the field of diplomacy, the recall of ambassadors is usually a last resort method adopted after a country's relationship is not harmonious and even falls into a crisis. This situation is very rare among allies.
The US and Australia hurt France deeply.
French parliamentarians: need to stop indulging in fantasies and withdraw from NATO
French National Assembly member Jean-Luc Méranchon, who has ran for president twice, believes that France needs to stop indulging in fantasies and withdraw from NATO to prevent the United States from planning to open a NATO space security center in Toulouse.
French expert: We feel betrayed
Jean-Pierre Morni, deputy director of the French Institute of International Relations and Strategy, said that this is a kind of betrayal.
He said that the United States has not fully negotiated and communicated with its allies, which will not only deepen the rift between its allies, but also further strengthen Europe's willingness to "strategic independence."
Jean-Pierre Morni, deputy director of the French Institute of International Relations and Strategy: As long as the strategic interests of the United States and Europe are not completely consistent, the United States will adopt unilateralism.
Unilateralism can be either Biden or Trump, and we can even go back to when Obama was elected.
On this issue, we lack a relevant strategy, which also teaches us that at the European level, we need more autonomy.
French media: Europe must seek strategic autonomy
The French "Le Figaro" article pointed out that Europe must seek strategic autonomy, and this diplomatic crisis may be as long as the French-US diplomatic crisis that occurred due to the Iraq war.
This cartoon shows how the United States, Britain and Australia have long known how it will affect France.
In the cartoon, US President Biden vaccinated Australian Prime Minister Morrison. Johnson said in the back: You need to observe here for 15 minutes, and France will have a strong reaction immediately.
How does "America First" and European "Strategic Independence" play a game?
It can be seen from the film just now that as the "tear-off submarine contract" incident continues to ferment, calls for further strengthening Europe's "strategic autonomy" under the game with "America First" have also begun to rise recently.
Next, we will pay attention to today’s third question: How will "America First" and European "Strategic Independence" compete in the future?
At present, not only in France, on the 20th, European Commission President Von der Lein and European Council President Michel expressed support for the French position and asked the United States and Australia to clarify the submarine incident.
On the same day, European Commission President Von der Lein stated that the actions taken by the United States, Britain and Australia against France are unacceptable.
The EU needs to know what happened and why this happened.
Michelle, President of the European Council, said that the US's move lacked faith and was incomprehensible, and the European Union asked the US for clarification.
Trade negotiations between the EU and Australia may be affected
In addition, France’s Secretary of State for European Affairs, Clement Bona, said in an interview with the media that trustworthiness is a condition of mutual trust between democratic countries and allies.
In the face of a country we no longer trust, it is unthinkable to advance trade negotiations as if nothing happened.
CNN reported that in June 2018, the EU and Australia launched free trade agreement negotiations. So far, 11 rounds of negotiations have been held, involving the removal of export barriers and intellectual property rights.
Although the European Commission has the power to conduct trade negotiations on behalf of 27 member states, it is unlikely to advance the agreement if France opposes it.
A spokesperson for the European Commission said that the next round of EU-Australia free trade agreement negotiations will be held in October, and the European Commission is assessing the impact of the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia’s announcement on the 15th on the establishment of a new trilateral security partnership. The impact.
According to data from the European Commission, the EU is Australia's third largest trading partner in 2020.
The reason why the incident has reached the point where it is today is that the United States is trying its best to build its own "small circle", which has caused a shock within the alliance system.
So, under the background that conflicts between Europe and the United States are increasingly frequent for their own interests, how will the future "America first" and Europe's "strategic autonomy" play a game?
The United States has robbed France's large order, why does Europe mention "strategic autonomy" again?
Is this the result of repeated disappointments?
What impact will "America First" have on the alliance system?
Special commentator Su Xiaohui: The European Union itself thinks that it is an important ally and partner of the United States that treats each other equally, but now the European Union is worried that it will become a pawn for the United States to promote competition among major powers.
In the context of the decline of hegemony, the United States firmly grasps the "America First" principle is an important principle that the United States cannot let go.
In the next stage, the US attitude towards its allies will certainly not be more investment, and it is impossible for the United States to truly participate in multilateralism.
In the future, in the process of global strategic deployment, we will hope that allies will charge forward and share responsibilities for the United States. This is a dangerous prospect that Europe sees now. At the same time, it is an important part of Europe’s wish to keep a distance from the United States as much as possible and make independent strategic choices. Considerations.