• Eurozone, Lagarde: recovery of pre-Covid levels by 2021

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21 September 2021 The global economy continues to recover, the shock from the pandemic crisis "is easing", but at the same time "the risks remain high" and, in particular,

concerns about inflation

are gathering

, which has not yet raised its head in all countries.



In an interim update of its Economic Outlook, the OECD substantially confirmed its

global growth

forecasts

, while it revised upwards those for the euro area and, limited to 2021, for Italy. Global GDP has now exceeded pre-pandemic levels, but delays in recovery and employment persist in many countries, says the Parisian body.



Now for 2021, he estimates

global growth of 5.7%

, 0.1 percentage points less than the forecasts of last May, while on 2022 it indicates a plus 4.5%, in this case revised upwards by 0.1 points.



On Italy, the OECD repeats the forecasts released last September 6 in the report on the country's economy:

plus 5.9% of GDP in 2021

, revised upwards by 1.4 points compared to May, and plus 4.1% on 2022, in this case cut by 0.3 points. Finally, on the euro area, the OECD expects a plus 5.3% this year, a figure revised upwards by 1 percentage point, and a plus 4.6% the next, in this case the revision was 0, 2 points to the upside.



The estimate for the current year is substantially in line with the

update note to the Def

that the Ministry of Economy is preparing to indicate and which expects GDP growth of approximately 6% for 2021 and above 4% in 2022, with the update note lower than the + 6% envisaged in the Nedef of government and better than the + 3.5% estimated by the Bank of Italy and the + 3% expected by the International Monetary Fund. 



Increases demand, price pressure

According to the chief economist of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Laurence Boone, "the shock is easing", but "the risks remain high," he said in the press conference of the report. And above all it has placed emphasis on the rapid increase in demand and the risk of putting even more pressure on global prices and supply chains. where there has already been a

spike in costs

transport of goods.



Boone cited the average cost of transporting a container from China to the east coast of the US: "It went from $ 3,000 - he said - to over $ 20,000." According to the OECD, increases in raw materials and international transport costs are adding around 1.5 percentage points to current levels of inflation in the G20 countries.



OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann reiterated the need to proceed with anti Covid vaccinations. Aid to the economy must continue as long as uncertainty persists and until employment levels have recovered. Central banks must maintain accommodative monetary policies, but according to the OECD now "clear indications are needed on the timing and scope within which inflationary excesses will be tolerated".



Global GDP - the report reads - has now exceeded the pre-pandemic level, but production in mid-2021 was still 3.5% lower than expected before the pandemic. This represents a real income deficit of over $ 4.5 trillion and is essentially equivalent to one year of global output growth under normal conditions.



To minimize the long-term scars of the pandemic in terms of lost jobs and lower income, it is essential - observes the OECD - to close this gap.