China News Service, September 19 According to Singapore’s Lianhe Zaobao, Germany will hold federal parliamentary elections on September 26, and Chancellor Merkel, who has been in power for nearly 16 years, will "say goodbye."
At present, among the three main prime ministers, the loudest voice is not Raschelt, who was elected by Merkel's coalition party, but Shaw, the Social Democratic Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, who is trying to portray himself as the "next Merkel". Eltz.
As Germany faces a series of internal and external challenges such as the new crown epidemic, climate change, and terrorism, this election will have a profound impact on the future political pattern and policy direction of Germany and even Europe.
On August 26, pedestrians in the center of Berlin passed the election panels of various political parties.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Peng Dawei
[The three main candidates, who is more dominant? 】
Although Merkel no longer seeks re-election, her shadow can still be seen everywhere in this election.
However, the coalition party with the "Merkel halo" and its candidate for prime minister, Raschelt, are currently at a disadvantage.
According to the comprehensive statistics of the American political news website Politico, as of the 16th, the support rate of the conservative coalition party composed of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) was only 21%, which was lower than 25% of the Social Democratic Party (SPD, Social Democratic Party).
In July, when Rashet accompanied President Steinmeier to inspect the flood-stricken area, he was photographed laughing with local officials.
This incident severely damaged Rashet's image and also contributed to the decline in the support rate of the Coalition Party.
The urgency of the election has resurfaced contradictions within the Coalition Party. Many people even advocated a change of generals and let the more popular CDU leader Markus Soder replace Rashet from the CDU.
Except for Raschelt, the performance of the Green Party prime minister, Belle Burke, has not been as expected.
With the increasing attention to environmental issues, she was originally optimistic, but later broke out that the resume was suspected of being "watered", the sideline income was not reported in time, and the new book was suspected of plagiarism and other scandals, which led to a decline in approval ratings.
Although the Green Party has a great chance of entering the ruling coalition, Bell Burke's dream of being a prime minister seems difficult to realize.
The center-left Social Democratic Party’s support rate has been sluggish in recent years, but its support rate has rebounded rapidly since August 2021.
As Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Scholz has played an important role in responding to many crises in Germany in recent years.
In the face of the new crown epidemic, he formulated a large-scale economic stimulus plan to provide assistance to enterprises and German families to control the unemployment rate at a low level.
After the floods in Germany in mid-July, he also quickly introduced a disaster relief plan, adding a lot of points to himself and the Social Democratic Party.
According to foreign media, in the selection of the three main prime ministers, Schultz, who is calm and even dull as a "robot" by the German media because of his drearyness, is perhaps the most like Merkel.
Recently, Scholz has also intentionally or unintentionally imitated Merkel's words and deeds, including the diamond-shaped gesture of Merkel's signature when taking pictures, as if he wanted to win the favor of centrist voters seeking stability.
A joint poll published by RTL and n-tv previously showed that if the German Chancellor is directly elected, 30% of voters would vote for Scholz, 15% would choose Belle Burke, and only 11% would favor Raschelt.
However, a survey by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung shows that among voters who intend to vote, only 60% have decided which party they want to support, and 40% of voters are still hesitant.
About two-thirds of them said that none of the candidates can convince them.
Data map: German Chancellor Merkel.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Peng Dawei
[How will the "Merkel generation" choose? 】
According to data from the German Federal Statistics Office, there are about 2.8 million "first voters" in the current general election. Most of these young people belong to the so-called "Merkel generation." In the world.
The 2.8 million people accounted for only 4.6% of the 60.4 million voters in Germany. However, due to the highly divided voters, coupled with the different political stances of young people, and their enthusiasm for social media with large spreading effects, the Merkel generation may still have a significant impact on the election results .
German voters have always emphasized political stability and continuity. The polls before the last election showed that more than half of the first voters and young voters chose to support Merkel.
Gurner, head of the Forsa Institute, a polling agency, described Merkel as a "safety net" for the past 16 years, and her departure has disturbed many voters.
But at the same time, some people have begun to wonder whether post-Merkel Germany needs a leader with a completely different style.
A series of recent problems, including the new crown epidemic, summer floods, and the Taliban’s recapture of Afghanistan, have also called into question the Coalition’s ability to respond to the crisis.
Different from the previous generation's emphasis on wealth and career achievements, young Germans are increasingly concerned about social justice and the ecological environment.
According to a survey conducted by the German Ministry of Environment, only 19% of the 14 to 17-year-olds believe that economic growth is more important than protecting the environment.
Franzen, a 17-year-old student from Berlin, said that Merkel seldom acts impulsively and always knows when to act and never makes mistakes, but now the Germans desire a more courageous leader.
Yanin, a senior assistant researcher at the German Foreign Policy Association, also believes: "Resolute and patient negotiations-Merkel's set-will not bring about the changes needed for climate policy. For this, you must make courageous and controversial Decision. Merkel firmly believes that you can only get things done when all important roles are in place. This is no longer in line with our current situation."
Data map: German Chancellor Merkel.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Peng Dawei
[Merkel or will remain in office for a few months? 】
The German Bundestag is the national political power center. It usually holds elections every four years and has 598 statutory seats.
Voters must cast two votes, one for "person" and one for "party".
The first vote is for the members of each constituency. This vote adopts a simple majority system, and whoever gets the most votes is elected.
Germany has 299 electoral districts, each occupies one seat, and half of the 598 seats are determined by this.
The second vote allows voters to choose the party that best meets their expectations. This vote adopts a proportional representation system. The other half of the seats will be allocated to the parties according to the rate of votes. However, only parties with a rate of at least 5% can enter the Bundestag.
The party with the highest number of votes has the priority to form a cabinet, and the candidate for the prime minister will be determined during the negotiation of cabinet formation.
In terms of procedures, the Prime Minister must be formally nominated by the President, and then the members of the Council shall vote.
The high degree of polarization among German voters has made the formation of a new ruling coalition more possible.
The Green Party, which continues to sit third in the polls, has a good chance of entering the government, and the pro-business Liberal Democratic Party (FDP) may once again become the king-maker.
When talking about the ruling combination, the German media often refer to the parties as the representatives of the political parties. Among them, the Coalition Party is black, the Liberal Democratic Party is yellow, the Green Party is green, and the Social Democratic Party and the Left Party are red.
It seems that the "Traffic Light Alliance" formed by the Social Democratic Party, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Green Party, and the "Jamaica Alliance" formed by the Coalition Party, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Green Party are more likely.
After the last general election, the Coalition Party and the Social Democratic Party had negotiated for five months to form a cabinet, and it was not until March 2018 that an agreement was reached.
Lars Feld, director of the Walter Oken Institute, also believes: "This time may also take three, four or five months, because we will have a three-party coalition and it will not be easy to put them together. ."
Until the new government is in place, the current government will continue to operate.
Dietmar Bartsch, chairman of the left-wing party caucus, predicted: "By Christmas, Merkel will still be prime minister."
If so, Merkel will surpass former Chancellor Kohl and become Germany's longest-serving chancellor after World War II.
Cole, who stepped down in 1998, was in power for 5,869 days, and Merkel will reach this milestone on December 17 this year.