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18 September 2021 The recovery in consumption also continues in the months of July and August. Autumn, however, appears full of unknowns, concerning not only the health emergency, in which the expansion of the number of vaccinated people will face a more favorable season for the transmissibility of respiratory viruses, but also the evolution of some important variables. economic. 



This is what emerges from the September economic note from Confcommercio which underlines that although in their estimates, the third quarter would close with a 2.2% cyclical variation, making it more likely that the 6% bar for GDP growth in 2021 will be exceeded. . 



Concerns concern the possibility that in 2022 an inflation rate of around 3% will limit the growth of activity starting from a slowdown in consumption. 



In August, the ICC, while still showing a positive change in the annual comparison (+ 1.2%), signals a slowdown in the demand for goods. This phenomenon - specifies Confcommercio - was largely expected, in consideration of a return to lifestyles that favor spending on services, especially those related to free time, but it still suggests the idea that we are close to a kind of theshold.



Also in the same month, the "sentiment" of retail companies showed a further improvement (+ 2.3% on July) reaching the highest value since the beginning of the historical series. month in economic terms, it should have returned to growth in September (+ 0.9%). In the annual comparison, the variation would be + 6.5%. 



In July 2021, industrial production grew by 0.8% cyclically, returning to the levels of the end of 2019. The comparison on an annual basis shows an increase of 6.9%. Also in July, after months of recovery, employment showed a limited reduction (-0.1%). The return to the levels of the beginning of 2020 still appears far away with a deficit, compared to February 2020, of 265 thousand employees. The difficulties of some of the inactive in returning to the labor market are quite evident. 



At the same time, business and household confidence may have stopped improving. According to the association, the recovery in inflation contributes to the climate of uncertainty. According to their estimates, in September, the change in consumer prices should amount to 2.7%, a sharp increase compared to 2.0% in August, a phenomenon that is beginning to create some concern precisely because it does not seem destined to return in the immediate future. , contrary to the widespread suggestion that the causes of price increases are transitory. 



Unless substantial interventions by the Government, a decisive increase in the energy bill is expected for October. The effects of this upsurge in inflation cannot fail to reverberate on household behavior, also bearing in mind that most of the increases are concentrated on consumer segments that are almost impossible to give up. On the other hand, it cannot be ruled out that the possible continuation of these price tensions does not modify inflation expectations, consequently reducing the distance between observed inflation and core inflation, with effects on monetary policy. 



Overall, growth is estimated in the third quarter of 2.2% compared to the second and 3.3% in the comparison on an annual basis, consolidating the expectations of growth, overall in 2021, close to or greater than 6%. The figure for the year reflects an attenuation of the recovery in the fourth quarter, as a result of a recovery in less lively demand from households together with more contained dynamics in manufacturing activity. In the summer months, the advancement of the vaccination campaign and the relaxation of almost all restrictions, even in the presence of restrictions on mobility outside the EU and the performance of some activities, favored the return to levels and consumption behaviors closer to those before -pandemics. 



In particular, the situation for the automotive sector appears complex, affected by a profound phase of change (the transition to electricity), which creates many uncertainties in families, also in the light of a rather discontinuous system of incentives and concessions. Regarding services, despite the positive dynamics recorded in recent months, the distance from pre-crisis levels appears to be profound. The comparison with the first eight months of 2019 still indicates a gap of 29.1% (but constantly reducing). 



Worst figures are found for recreational services, air transport and for hotels and public businesses. On the basis of the dynamics recorded by the various variables that contribute to the formation of consumer prices, it is estimated for the month of September 2021 a zero change in economic terms and of 2.7% on an annual basis. In line with what is happening in the rest of the EMU, Italian inflation is rapidly moving towards 3%, when only in last December the situation was still deflationary. The upward trend is expected to persist for at least a few months. The duration of the phenomenon and the consequent monetary policy choices that will be adopted represent one of the biggest unknowns on growth in 2022.