In Saint Petersburg, voters can choose between three Boris Vishnevsky for the Russian legislative elections which begin Friday, September 17 and are to last three days.
They all look alike, but only one of them has had this name since birth and presents himself as a critical candidate for Vladimir Putin.
The other two are in the pay of the government.
"It is done to disorient the voters, to sow doubt so that a part of them are mistaken and vote for a false me", regrets the real Boris Vishnevsky, questioned by the Guardian at the beginning of September.
Everything to muzzle the opposition
This is not the first time that the Russian authorities have revealed duplicates of candidates who are hostile to them to sow confusion, recalls the Financial Times.
A tactic revealing the vast arsenal of methods at the Kremlin's disposal to put as many sticks as possible in the wheels of candidates who do not belong to United Russia (UK), the party in the boot of Vladimir Putin and majority in the Duma, the lower house of parliament.
This campaign was marked by an avalanche of schemes, shenanigans and all-out repression against opposition figures likely to influence the debates.
Most of Alexeï Navalny's allies, the main political dissident currently in prison, have been arrested or ostracized from the electoral campaign on the pretext that they belonged to “extremist” organizations.
The Moscow Times, an English-speaking Russian daily, even drew up a list of all the candidates banned from participating in this election.
“The intensity of the repression campaign is striking this year,” notes Mark Galeotti, director of Mayak Intelligence, a consultancy firm on security issues in Russia, contacted by France 24.
A riot of energy to muzzle the opposition that can surprise.
After all, there is little doubt about the outcome of the legislative elections, as international observers expect a rigged vote.
“The approximately 110 million registered on the lists will not elect, but will designate the deputies of the State Duma, as well as the deputies of the legislative assemblies of the republics and regions, according to a loaded game, since the capacity [.. .] to defraud the results is considerable ”, writes Marie Mendras, specialist in Russia at the International Research Center (CERI) of Sciences-Po Paris, in her analysis of the stakes of the Russian elections published on the Desk Russia site.
Vladimir Putin “much more nervous” than in 2016
"The result will be what the Kremlin wants, that is, United Russia will retain an absolute majority in the Duma," confirms Mark Galeotti. But for him, that does not take away all flavor from these legislative elections. “The stake of this election does not depend on the results, but on the importance of the efforts made upstream of the vote to mobilize the pro-Putin voters and demotivate the others”, summarizes this specialist.
This is for him the true indicator both of the popularity of the master of the Kremlin and of the social climate in the country.
And the authorities did not content themselves with pulling out the stick to hunt down the opponents.
He also multiplied the carrots in the form of “exceptional bonuses for retirees and the military, two electorates traditionally more favorable to United Russia”, underlines Myriam Desert, professor emeritus at the Sorbonne and specialist in Russia, contacted by France 24.
In some regions, local authorities have also put pressure on officials to vote, going so far as to charter buses to transport voters deemed most likely to vote for United Russia, recalls the Financial Times.
The majority party also tried to play the fear card, presenting itself as the only bulwark against foreign powers that would besiege Russia. “The RU leaders were chosen not only for their popularity, but also for their emblematic functions: they are the ministers of defense and foreign affairs”, notes Myriam Désert.
For her, all these efforts clearly demonstrate how Vladimir Putin “is infinitely more nervous this time than during the previous legislative elections in 2016”.
It must be said that the context is much less favorable to the Russian president.
The standard of living has deteriorated for a large part of the population and “the pension reform adopted in 2018 aroused strong resentment from the Russians towards power,” recalls Myriam Desert.
Consequence: United Russia started its campaign with popularity at its lowest, at almost 30%.
In addition, demonstrations of support for Alexeï Navalny in January 2021, throughout the country, demonstrated that the social powder keg could explode anywhere and “no longer only in large cities”, continues this expert of Russian society in a article written for The Conversation.
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Finally, the massive demonstrations in Belarus after the highly contested re-election of Alexander Lukashenko "gave Russian officials a cold sweat", recalls Mark Galeotti.
Last test before Putin's term ends
Not like that with us, the Kremlin strategists told themselves.
This is why they “hope that they do not need to resort to too much manipulation of the votes to obtain the desired result,” confirms Myriam Desert.
“Better a little repression before the elections than a lot after - as in Belarus”, summarizes Mark Galeotti.
The Kremlin also does not want the last electoral test before the end of Vladimir Putin's term in 2024 to be too messy and too contested.
But all the efforts of the government to promote the United Russia party have failed to completely muzzle the opposition.
Starting with the camp of Alexeï Navalny who promoted his strategy of “smart voting” during this campaign.
The idea, which had proved its worth during the election to the Moscow State Duma in 2020, is to call on all discontented people, whatever their political sensitivity, to vote for the candidate who is most likely to beat the one. of United Russia.
It is the Communist Party (the KPRF) which has so far benefited the most from this strategy.
And it is in this formation - still dominated by late Stalinists like its president, Guennadi Ziouganov - that “more assertive tendencies of opposition” emerges, notes Mark Galleoti.
Traditionally, the KPRF belongs to the so-called “systemic” parties, that is to say the existence of which is tolerated by the authorities because they are committed not to contest the system set up by Vladimir Poutine.
But there is a “new generation of communists, younger and more social democrats, which has been put forward during this campaign and who criticize more openly the policies of Vladimir Poutine”, details Mark Galleoti.
The fact that a real opposition begins to organize within a party yet dubbed by Vladimir Poutine shows that “the so-called 'systemic' opposition parties are not really completely in the hands of the government”, adds Myriam Desert .
And for Mark Galleoti, this is another reason why this election is important: “It allows us to see the Russian political figures of the future emerge”.
For him, those who succeed in asserting themselves in this electoral context ultra-controlled by the Kremlin without appearing to be in the pay of the power in place should have the stature to play a role in post-Putin Russia.
Because, notes Mark Galleoti, the reign of the Russian president “is not eternal”.
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