Gavin Newsom should go - in California, voters can theoretically swap governors even in the middle of their term of office. And because the Republicans were able to prevail against the Democrats with a signature campaign, the state has called a "recall" vote. The result will be announced this Tuesday. According to experts, the Republicans do not have a great chance with the project. The election campaign and the vote are also seen as a test of the influence of Donald Trump and his supporters. Can the former president, who still does not deny ambitions for the 2024 election, still mobilize the masses? From the point of view of the Democrats, on the other hand, the question is whether the fight against Trump can still get enough people to the ballot box and also retain more conservative white suburbanites.

On the ballot paper sent home to all registered voters in California, they did not need to tick a name, just a yes or no - for or against the recall.

But together with the "yes" you could also tick one of the candidates who offered themselves as an alternative to the incumbent.

Newsom has a simple majority to remain governor.

The citizens' last vote of no confidence was successful: in 2003 they recalled Democrat Gray Davis and replaced him with Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, who remained in office until 2011.

Almost 60 percent of citizens are against the "recall"

Newsom actually got off to a promising start. Three years ago he won the governor's election with 62 percent of the vote and a record turnout. Since then he has had to struggle with a few scandals, but above all his term of office was marked by major crises such as the devastating forest fires and one wave of Covid infection after another. The 53-year-old politician is not conspicuously unpopular compared to many of his counterparts - his popularity ratings are around fifty percent, depending on the poll, and almost 60 percent of citizens are against the “recall”.

This came about because the campaign for the vote of no confidence against the incumbent had received 1.5 million signatures.

No fewer than 46 men and women have registered as possible Newsom alternatives.

The top poll candidate is Larry Elder, a Black Republican radio talk show host.

He scores with conservatives because he is against vaccination regulations and for the abolition of all minimum wages.

Elder's prominent supporters include actor Chuck Norris and Rose McGowan, co-initiator of the #MeToo movement.

Famous donors supported the campaign

According to a report in Politico magazine, many of Trump's donors are behind the "Recall" campaign and funded it with millions of dollars. Investors from Silicon Valley such as former Newsom supporter David Sacks are among them, as are donors from other states. The campaign initially focused on Newsoms supposedly too liberal treatment of immigrants, but now his opponents mostly denounce the strict rules in the fight against Covid-19. One of their demands is to abolish all vaccination obligations.

California is now a liberal state, but there are many Republicans in the country and in certain suburban areas, such as Orange County.

In the south of Los Angeles, where the political career of the former California governor and President Ronald Reagan began, the congressional elections in 2018 came as a surprise: the Democrats were able to take four seats in the House of Representatives from the Republicans.

Since then, the republican strongholds around the west coast metropolis are no longer considered safe.

Stronghold of the New Right

Within the party, the New Right California has many supporters. The Claremont Institute, an influential right-wing think tank, hailed Trump's policies in many publications. One of the best-known texts of "Trumpism" was published by the conservative "Claremont Review of Books" shortly before the 2016 election under the title "The Flight 93 Election". Author Michael Anton compared the situation of the passengers of the hijacked plane on September 11, 2001 with the situation of the Americans before the vote: "Storm the cockpit or die," said the text, referring to Trump's supposed fight against the establishment. The right magazine “Breitbart” and the platform “Daily Wire” were also created in Los Angeles.Trump's former chief strategist Steve Bannon met Andrew Breitbart and the right-wing populist Ben Shapiro, who ran "Daily Wire".

The dominance of the Democrats in California, however, had little effect. So far, twice as many Democrats as Republicans are said to have cast their vote in Newsom's “Recall”. Yet pollsters believe the anti-Trump coalition's mobilizing power could crumble. And that could cause more trouble for the Democrats in the other two states, who are voting this year, than in California: In Virginia and New Jersey, the governors will be re-elected at the beginning of November.

In the final spurt of the election campaign, Gavin Newsom was joined by Vice President Kamala Harris as former California attorney general, and President Joe Biden, who traveled to California on Monday. The vote cost the taxpayer $ 400 million. If Newsom survives, then he will have to run again in just over a year - in the regular gubernatorial election in November 2022.