The governor of the "Dark Blue State" is in a crisis of recall, or will he set off a political "earthquake" across the United States?
On September 14, local time, California will hold a special election to remove Newsom, the governor of the state, to decide whether Newsom will stay or leave.
California Governor Gavin Newson
The particularity of this election is that the Democratic governor is in a crisis of recall in California, the "dark blue state" (the home base of Democratic candidates in American political elections), and it is a supporter who is most likely to replace him as governor. Republican of former U.S. President Trump.
Although in the history of the United States, only two governors have been removed in such elections, and California’s Democratic registered voters have an advantage in numbers.
But Democratic politicians in Washington still can't hide their worries about the results of this election.
Earlier, President Biden and Vice President Harris both spoke out in support of Newsom, and Biden personally went to California to canvass for Newsom the day before the election.
For Democrats on Capitol Hill, the outcome of the recall election will not only affect the political trend of California, the base camp, but will also have a decisive impact on the political power of the Senate.
In the eyes of Republicans who lost the 2020 election, the election on the 14th of this month will greatly boost their morale, and the clarion call for the 2022 mid-term election has been sounded.
Why did the recall election come from?
In California, the motion for the removal of Governor Newsom originated in February 2020.
Initially, opponents wanted to remove Newsom based on political issues such as taxation and immigration.
With the spread of the new crown epidemic in the United States, calls for the removal of Newsom have shown an increasing trend.
At the beginning of the outbreak, Newsom took the lead in issuing the first "home order" to control the infection rate in California at a low level, which was praised by the outside world.
However, as the epidemic continued to intensify, the people began to "fatigue" in the anti-epidemic measures, and the situation in the state also changed.
“USA Today” reported that, despite Newsom’s strictest anti-epidemic order, California still became the center of the new crown outbreak in the United States.
During this period, the number of Californians who supported the removal of Newsom increased.
However, the recall vote was finally established, mainly due to Newson's own "misconduct."
According to CNN, during the epidemic, on the one hand Newsom discouraged Californians from visiting their families during the holidays, he himself was exposed to attending one of the most upscale restaurants in the world in November last year-"French Laundry". "French Laundry" (French Laundry) dinner, and did not wear a mask.
Although Newson apologized for attending the dinner and admitted that he "made a serious mistake."
But many people think that Newsom's move is a hypocritical and divorced behavior.
After that, the number of people demanding the removal of Newsom continued to increase.
According to the US Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC), this spring, Newsom’s opponents collected nearly 1.5 million signatures (equivalent to 12% of the votes in the 2018 governor election), which met the conditions for triggering the recall vote.
California State Secretary of State Weber previously stated that holding this vote does not mean that the governor has been removed. The final result will be decided by voters on September 14.
In this ballot, California voters will make a choice on two issues, one is "whether they agree to remove Newsom" and the other is "who do you want to succeed Newsom as the governor of California".
If the voter turnout for the first question exceeds half, that is, more than 50% of voters choose "yes", then the governor candidate with the highest vote rate will become the new governor of California; if more than half of the people choose "no", New York Sen will remain in office.
Trump supporters become contenders
Currently, among the 46 candidates for governor, the Republican and African-American conservative radio host Larry Elder has a much higher support rate than other candidates.
According to a recent survey by the California Institute of Public Policy, 26% of respondents are more inclined to support Elder, while the support rate of the other major candidates is in the single digits: former San Diego Mayor Kevin Fu Kerner is 5%, businessman John Cox is 3%, state legislator Kevin Kelly is 3%, reality TV star and former Olympian Caitlin Jenner is 1%.
As for Elder’s political stance, Al Jazeera said that Elder opposes abortion and hopes to end Newsom’s request for vaccinations and wearing masks.
In addition, he is also an "iron fan" of Trump. He once said that "Trump is almost sent by God."
It is worth noting that Elder has also made a series of controversial remarks suspected of sex discrimination during his career.
Al Jazeera reported that he had promoted a book "How to Become a Good Wife" from the 1950s. This book tells women to prepare dinner for their husbands and not to complain, and claims that women are aware of politics, economics and current affairs. Not as good as men.
According to the Los Angeles Times, Elder also hinted that women who had participated in the anti-Trump Women's March (Women's March) were protected from sexual assault because of their lack of attractiveness.
While Elder’s support rate is soaring, according to a report by USA Today, all Republican candidates oppose the mandatory new crown vaccine and the order to wear masks. Many people said that they would overturn Newsom’s previous epidemic prevention measures.
In fact, it is not uncommon in California to remove elected officials.
According to CNBC, since 1913, California citizens have initiated a total of 179 recall motions.
Among these, only a small number of motions received enough signatures.
As far as governor-level officials are concerned, the then-Democratic Governor Gray Davis was dismissed in 2003 and was replaced by the Republican Hollywood star Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Although historically the probability of the governor being removed is low, and the ratio of registered voters between the Democrats and Republicans in California is close to 2 to 1, Democrats are still worried about the removal vote.
The reason is that in recent months, California Republican voters have been more enthusiastic about the election to remove Newsom.
According to a survey conducted by CBS and polling firm YouGov in early August, 72% of registered Republican voters said they were "very willing to vote", while the corresponding proportion of Democratic voters was 61%.
However, the United States FiveThirtyEight website integrated multiple poll data shows that as of September 10, 56.2% of registered voters in California support Newsom's retention, and 41.6% are inclined to dismiss Newsom.
Election or trigger "political shock"?
From a practical point of view, when it is observed that President Biden, Vice President Harris, former President Obama and other major democratic lawmakers have supported Newsom, it means that the political impact of the recall election may be beyond imagination. .
Biden previously issued a statement in support of Newsom's retention.
The statement reads that Newsom is "leading California through an unprecedented crisis. He is a key partner in fighting the epidemic and making the economy recover better."
According to "USA Today" reports, Biden also went to California on September 13 local time to solicit votes for Newsom.
In addition, Harris participated in Newsom’s campaign in the San Francisco Bay Area last week.
She warned that the results of this election will cause repercussions across the country and may pose a threat to women's reproductive rights, immigrants and workers' rights.
"California is like a trend leader," said Zev Yaroslavsky, director of the Ruskin School of Public Affairs at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).
He added that California's removal of the Democratic governor will be a "political earthquake" that will shake the rest of the country.
More importantly, Democrats worry that this "political earthquake" may upset the delicate political balance of the Senate.
The key is that California Democratic Senator Diane Feinstein is 88 years old, and the outside world is increasingly worried about whether he can complete the remaining term.
According to CNBC analysis, if a Republican succeeds in replacing Newsom’s position, it is likely that he will appoint a Republican congressman to fill Feinstein’s position. This will overturn the Democratic Party’s weak majority in the Senate and hinder worship. The Den government advances its political agenda in Congress.
At the same time, the statement of the governor candidate Elder also confirmed the concerns of the Democrats.
He said on a conservative radio talk show: "They (Democrats) are worried that I will replace her (Feinstein) with a Republican. I will definitely do it. This will be an earthquake in Washington."
In the opinion of Republicans running for governor, this election may open a new page for California.
Right now, California is dealing with extreme weather such as wildfires and droughts, and lacks affordable housing.
"California is now in crisis. Not only natural disasters, but also man-made disasters caused by politicians like Newsom." said Randy Ikoni, one of the initial conveners of the recall vote.
Regardless of the final result of the vote, for all Republicans, there is nothing more than a huge incentive to hold this recall vote.
Al Jazeera quoted Mindy Romero, director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the University of Southern California, stating that the midterm elections in the United States usually favor the party that lost the last general election, and this time the revocation is given to the Republican Party. People send a strong signal-"We are taking back our country."
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The Paper Journalist Wang Lu