North Korea, Afghanistan, and Burma

Triple crises on China's borders will shape its global identity

  • It is possible that sooner or later China will face diplomatic dilemmas during the coming period in Afghanistan.

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  • Lindsey Graham: The United States will return its forces to Afghanistan in the future.

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First it was North Korea, then Myanmar, and now Afghanistan, and these are the three ongoing crises on the Chinese border, and they seem to have little in common. But for Beijing, it means the same question, which is: How to deal with strategically important, but failed, countries on their borders? And how should China respond to identifying itself as a global power?

For years, China watchers in the Western world have been searching for clues about how a rising power is exerting its influence on the world stage through its entrenchment in Africa and its relations with the United States. But the way China deals with its three neighboring countries may provide a clearer picture. "Myanmar, Afghanistan, and North Korea are tests for China as a rising superpower, and whether it can skillfully fill the void left by the United States," said the famous Burmese historian and former presidential adviser, Thant Myint U. Failed states, which depends mainly on ideas related to democratic elections and human rights, but we have not yet seen what China will do, which in the past decades refused to export its model to the world.

So far, the Chinese style is still cautious and traditional. As for Afghanistan, Beijing called on the international community to "actively mentor" the Taliban. And in Myanmar, it is offering to provide economic development, after blocking an outspoken condemnation of the coup last March by the UN Security Council. As for North Korea, the two countries pledged last July to enhance cooperation on the 60th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Agreement between them.

The Chinese influence in these countries differs in nature. Unlike Afghanistan, with which China shares a small border, the border region with North Korea and Myanmar has a long history of interaction. Thant Myint U, author of The Hidden History of Burma, said: “In Myanmar, China's supreme interests aim to ensure a degree of stability, and the non-interference of any superpower, and China's geopolitical ambitions to make Myanmar a bridge to the Indian Ocean are secondary to its practices. It is more than 1,000 years old, and represented in managing barbaric conflicts along its southwestern borders.”

Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Research Center, agrees.

She says China's primary goal has been security on its borders and fear of a possible refugee crisis.

In 2009, the bloody conflict in Kokang, Myanmar, prompted some 30,000 refugees to flee to China.

"China will closely monitor in the coming months the possibility of deterioration of the situation in the three countries," Yun Sun said.

In the case of Afghanistan, Beijing is still studying how far it can go in its relationship with the Taliban regime.

Critics say that given that the Taliban is an important force in Afghanistan, China will face diplomatic dilemmas with Afghanistan in the coming period.

"China is a superpower now, and the world expects it to act accordingly," said researcher Raffaello Panchoy of Singapore's Ragarentham School of International Studies.

So far, there are no indications that Beijing's approach to Afghanistan will be similar to what Washington has done.

This week, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said he believed US soldiers would "return to Afghanistan" in the future.

"We will go back to Afghanistan because the threat will be great," he told the BBC.

If this did happen, said Enzy Han of the University of Hong Kong, it would be a perfect fit for China, which would like to see the United States militarily involved again in Afghanistan.

"In the worst case scenario, we will not see China militarily involved in Afghanistan like the United States," he added.

Beijing's foreign policy is pragmatic, and will not change in the foreseeable future, and its response to events in these three failed states will lead Western commentators to draw conclusions about China's behavior as it cements its new identity as an irreplaceable global player.

• Vincent Ni is the Guardian's China correspondent

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