Demoscopy is not a natural science.
If surveys or trends are taken at face value and cleverly blown around the world, they can of course have a great effect.
Especially with the - many - undecided: Has my vote been given away?
Has the election already run?
The increased use of postal voting distorts the picture even more.
The polling institute Forsa is now arguing with the Federal Returning Officer about the word on Sunday, more precisely about the Sunday question: "Who would you vote?" Forsa also asks whether someone has already voted by letter and, if so, which party. The Federal Returning Officer, in turn, asked all opinion pollers not to publish any poll results from voters who had already cast their votes by letter until the polling stations were closed.
This is another problem with postal voting. Originally intended as an exception in the event that a citizen is prevented from voting on election day, it used to be subject to a justification. Today it is almost the norm; In Corona times, more desirable than a crowd at the polling station. One does not have to exaggerate the original idea of a common balloting of the entire electorate - with the same level of knowledge. But even a secret ballot is not guaranteed with postal votes. The model of the Basic Law is the polling of the ballot box. If every second vote by letter, that's a different choice - not just for pollsters.