Chinanews.com, Beijing, September 9 (Reporter Sun Zifa) The internationally renowned academic journal "Nature" recently published a paper on climate change modeling research, pointing out that nearly 60% of petroleum and fossil methane gas and 90% of coal reserves must be By staying underground until 2050, humans have at least a 50% chance of controlling global warming to 1.5°C.
Many of the ongoing and planned fossil fuel extraction activities are not helping to achieve the globally agreed climate goals.
According to the paper, it is estimated that between now and 2050, only a 3% annual reduction in oil and gas production can achieve these goals.
Therefore, it is necessary to formulate policies to limit production and reduce demand in the future to encourage miners to re-evaluate production.
Fossil fuels account for 81% of global energy consumption, but only by drastically reducing their production and consumption can the global climate goal reached in the 2015 Paris Agreement, which is to control global warming within 1.5°C higher than the pre-industrial period .
A paper published in Nature in 2015 estimated that it is only possible to keep 1/3 of the global oil reserves, 1/2 of the natural gas reserves, and more than 80% of the coal reserves in unused state by 2050. Keep the upper limit of global warming within 2°C.
Based on previous research, the corresponding author of the paper, Dan Welsby, University College London, and colleagues estimated the proportion of fossil fuels needed to be kept underground to limit global warming at 1.5°C.
According to their estimates, this requires a substantial increase in the reserves of non-exploitable fossil fuels, especially oil reserves that need to be increased by another 25% over the estimated value in 2015.
They also found that the decline in oil and gas production to be achieved by 2050 means that many regions will reach their peak production now or within the next 10 years.
In addition, the authors of the paper specifically pointed out that since their model does not take into account future Earth system feedback, and the deployment speed and scale of neutralizing emission technologies are still uncertain, these estimates may be underestimated.