Turkey is the biggest obstacle.. this is how Russia plans to take over the throne of the Black Sea

Introduction to translation

Angela Stent, a non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, has prepared an analysis for the American magazine Foreign Affairs on the heated battle for influence in the Black Sea.

The writer, a former member of the National Intelligence Council who specializes in Asia and Eurasia, reviews how Russia is managing this battle with its allies and opponents.

translation text

Russian President Vladimir Putin gave an enthusiastic speech on July 25 in Saint Petersburg to commemorate the 325th anniversary of the founding of the Russian Navy, and announced in front of a statue of Peter the Great, founder of the Russian fleet and the tsar closest to Putin's heart, that the Russian Navy "today has everything it needs to ensure defense" We are able to detect any aggression from a submarine, from the surface of the sea or from the air, and deal with it and direct an immediate close strike if necessary."

Putin's speech was accompanied by a spectacular display of naval equipment, to demonstrate his statements and Russian military modernization during the past two decades.

Russia's rise as a naval power has stirred up the waves of the Black Sea. Moscow has long sought to create its own maritime sphere of influence. Moscow's moves in the Black Sea, including modernizing its fleet and claiming sovereignty over territorial waters around Crimea, threaten to upset the balance of power in the Black Sea and the eastern Mediterranean. Endangering freedom of navigation, not only in these regions, but around the world.

Russian back

Russia has always viewed the Black Sea as the centerpiece of its security. Catherine II (known as Catherine the Great) annexed Crimea from the Ottoman Turks in 1783, while her husband, Prince Grigory Potemkin, inaugurated the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol (the contested capital of Crimea) in the same year. between Russia and Ukraine now). In the 19th century, Russia competed with major European powers and the Ottoman Empire for influence in and around the Black Sea. However, Moscow became the dominant power in the region only by the Cold War, not before it, and it was only balanced by NATO member Turkey, and the Soviets used the Black Sea to display their power in the eastern Mediterranean.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia witnessed a sudden reversal of its cards in the Black Sea: Georgia and Ukraine gained their independence and sought to integrate with the West, while Bulgaria and Romania joined NATO in 2004;

As a result, Russia lost access to parts of the Black Sea coast that it had previously controlled, directly or indirectly.

At that time, Russia and Ukraine agreed to divide the Black Sea Fleet between them, and its headquarters remained in the city of Sevastopol.

In 2010, Kiev renewed Russia's right to lease fleet bases until 2042, but after the pro-Russian President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, fled the country in February 2014 and took over a new pro-Western government, Putin feared that Kiev would reverse the agreement.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych

Then Russia soon began its violent return to the Black Sea region again. In March 2014, Moscow seized Crimea and seized most of the Ukrainian ships in Sevastopol, forcing the Ukrainian Navy to move its headquarters to the city of "Odessa", west of Odessa. Black Sea. Putin argued Russia's right to these moves by claiming that "NATO ships would have ended up in the Russian naval glory city, Sevastopol" had Russia not captured Crimea in a preemptive strike. Since then, Russia has tripled its areas of effective control on the Black Sea coast, strengthened its missile power in the region, and strengthened its power there through a package of tactics in the military, diplomatic and economic fields, as well as in the fields of energy and information.

Putin has been reviving Russia's naval power since entering the Kremlin two decades ago, erasing an era of severe naval collapse and establishing another multi-purpose, more flexible and modern navy. But Russia has gone further, and since the 2014 annexation of Crimea, it has deployed new bases, forces, and weapons in the Black Sea that have helped it increase its influence in the eastern Mediterranean, the core arena of Moscow's operations in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Moreover, Russia has developed its naval base in the Syrian city of Tartus, in the midst of its broader attempt to find a foothold that would return it to the Middle East.

At the same time, Russia claimed sovereignty over the territorial waters around Crimea and sought to control them. On June 23, for example, the British destroyer HMS Defender briefly entered the 12-mile territorial area around Crimea and was entitled to enter under the "innocent passage" clause of the United Nations Convention on the Law of seas. Britain planned military training, and carried journalists on board its ship to counter Russia's claim of sovereignty over the Crimean periphery and to ensure freedom of navigation. However, Russia responded angrily, firing warning shots at the British destroyer, and later denounced what Putin described as a British-American provocation. It was a "rehearsal" for the sea confrontations that are likely to increase in frequency as Russia seeks to force the world to accept its annexation of Crimea, and while Russia and China seek to undermine long-standing maritime norms.

British destroyer HMS Defender

Nervous neighbors

The Russian behavior has angered the countries bordering the Black Sea, including Georgia and Ukraine, especially since Russia has already invaded the two countries (Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine since 2014) in an effort to obstruct their accession to NATO, and it is already occupying parts of their territories until now.

As a result, the two countries currently have hostile relations with Moscow, and are working with NATO to strengthen their maritime defenses.

Putin has insisted that the Russians and Ukrainians are "one people" and that the Ukrainians' cooperation with NATO is a threat to Russia's national security, which has heightened tensions and raised fears of a broader Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Romania, a NATO member, is equally concerned about Russia's military capabilities and suspicious of its motives, while Bulgaria, another NATO member, has closer and more complex relations with Moscow, but remains committed to integration with the West. Ultimately, both Romania and Bulgaria would prefer a larger US and NATO presence in the region.

However, the country bordering the Black Sea, whose position will influence the most on Putin's attempt to extend his maritime hegemony over the region, is Turkey.

Russia and Turkey share a long history of conflict that has often taken place in the Black Sea.

But since the failed coup attempt against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2016, the two countries have moved closer politically, in large part because of Putin's support for Erdogan's narrative about the attempted coup, and his reluctance to criticize the Turkish president over his campaign against his opponents.

Apparently in return for the favour, Turkey bought advanced S-400 air defense systems from Moscow, angering NATO and prompting the United States to remove Turkey from its F-35 fighter jet program.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan

However, Turkish-Russian relations are not characterized by cooperation along the line, as each of them supports a military side opposing the other in both Libya and Syria, and in the recent war in the Caucasus over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Turkey supported Azerbaijan, while Russia mediated between the warring Armenia and Azerbaijan. After the ceasefire, Russia was forced to accept a Turkish peacekeeping role in its "near neighbourhood." Tensions between them were also inflamed against the backdrop of Erdogan's strong support for Ukraine and his public stance on Crimea, which is Ukrainian rather than Russian territory. Turkey handed over its first armed drone to the Ukrainian navy last July, which is a sign of deepening military relations between Turkey and Ukraine, relations that will undoubtedly upset Russia.

Ankara has significant influence and influence over Moscow, as it can allow or prevent the passage of NATO ships into the Black Sea. Over the past 85 years, Turkey has regulated the movement of commercial and military ships to and from the sea under the Montreux Treaty, which guarantees the freedom of transit of cargo ships through the Turkish straits in times of peace, and includes a set of clauses to regulate the passage of warships, for example, the agreement provides for Turkey notification in advance. before the passage of the warship. Ankara, in turn, has maintained a policy that did not deviate from it in implementing the Montreux Treaty, which means that it prevented NATO ships from crossing from time to time.

In recent years, the United States has been pushing Turkey to adopt a more liberal version of the Montreux Treaty, so that NATO can expand its presence in the Black Sea.

So far, Turkey has rejected these demands, but it may be on the verge of turning the treaty upside down for its own reasons, as Erdogan announced his controversial project to build a parallel canal to the Bosphorus in Istanbul, which will divert the shipping course away from the overcrowded Bosphorus Strait towards an industrial waterway. West Istanbul.

This new canal would not be subject to the Montreux Treaty, which means that NATO warships could theoretically enjoy unrestricted passage through it to the Black Sea.

It is not surprising, then, that Putin has criticized this project and even pressured Erdogan to keep the Montreux Treaty.

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This article has been translated from Foreign Affairs and does not necessarily reflect the website of Meydan.

Translation: Hadeer Abdel Azim.