After its hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan,

Middle Eastern leaders can no longer count on America too much

• The impromptu US withdrawal from Afghanistan constituted a crisis of confidence between the United States and its allies.

  AFP

• The Taliban's takeover of the reins of affairs in Afghanistan has caused concern to many in Asia.

  Reuters

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The last American flight left Kabul airport amid celebratory noise of Taliban fire, as the disaster of the United States and the West's withdrawal from Afghanistan raises alarm bells from eastern Ukraine to the Taiwan Strait, where the Taliban took over the country after a 20-year war. To the spread of something like goosebumps in Central and South Asia.

However, this had a different impact in the Middle East, where the series of Anglo-American invasions arena.

Leaders reacted differently to the US capitulation, as allies and adversaries alike seemed to realize that they could no longer count on the US too much.

No one denies the unique military strength of the United States, but long before Washington admitted defeat in Afghanistan, Middle Eastern leaders were aware that the 2003 US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq demonstrated the limits of America's power and inability to shape geopolitics. for the region.

pointless spending

Although America spent trillions of dollars in Iraq and Afghanistan on training and equipping their armed forces, the Iraqi army, which was weakened by corruption and sectarianism, had completely dissolved before the ISIS attack from Syria in 2014, just as the Afghan army left its American-made devices and fled the confrontation "Taliban".

American unreliability has prompted leaders across the Middle East to begin a dialogue aimed at appeasement and rapprochement. Rather than relying on outsiders, critics around the world have attacked President Joe Biden for his failure to withdraw from Afghanistan.

Middle East officials note a pattern that extends back to the past and includes many US presidencies. Former President George W. Bush chose to stay in Afghanistan, while shifting US attention and resources to Iraq, where it failed miserably, rekindling the flames of the old conflict. Between Sunnis and Shiites in regional proxy wars headed by Iran or its proxies. Barack Obama failed in 2013 to enforce his "red line" against the Syrian regime when he used nerve gas against the opposition supported by Washington from the sidelines.

Donald Trump realized that his exit from Syria and Iraq would become a mess when, in February of last year, he concluded the withdrawal agreement with the “Taliban,” which subsequently undermined the Afghan government, with which he did not bother to consult.

Most worrying for US allies is Trump's refusal to provide assistance to Saudi Arabia, after Iran's allies attacked Saudi Aramco in 2019 with a drone and missiles.

Now, the Arab leaders are trying to pre-empt the wave of events before the catastrophic consequences happen. Iran and Saudi Arabia, despite their dispute that extends from Yemen to Syria and from Iraq to Lebanon, began meetings in April.

And Iraq, which is struggling to survive as a united state, hosted, a few days ago, a summit that brought together the leaders of the region.

Trying to prevent catastrophe

But now Biden must find a way to prevent the Afghan disaster from emboldening Iran. US policy in the region has helped Tehran build a Shiite axis across Arab lands since the invasion of Iraq, which brought the majority of religious Shiite leaders to power there.

One of Biden's main goals in the region is to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran, which was signed by Iran, the United States and five world powers under Obama, from which Trump unilaterally withdrew in 2018. The United States and its allies, through negotiations on the nuclear file, also want to curb Iran’s aggression, and Tehran-backed Shiite paramilitaries in the Levant and the Gulf.

The indirect meetings in Vienna brought Washington and Tehran very close to reaching a nuclear agreement before the election of the new hard-line Iranian president, Ebrahim Raisi.

Raisi says Iran will support any nuclear deal that lifts sanctions that Trump has re-imposed on Iran.

The US says this is on the table in Vienna, but Biden may need to go further.

The United States withdrew from the 2015 agreement unilaterally, but Iran did not begin to violate its nuclear commitments until a year later.

And if Biden starts lifting sanctions unilaterally, that could cause a stalemate.

Iran may also be willing to cooperate with the United States on Afghanistan (as it did after the 9/11 attacks), so that Afghanistan does not embrace ISIS again.

Iran had allied itself with the United States against this organization, after it invaded Iraq from Syria in 2014.

Iran needs economic relief, and Arab leaders want to focus on development and diversification away from oil, imperatives across a region riddled with the unfavorable expectations of a young population.

The United States withdrew from Afghanistan, and was forced to share intelligence with the Taliban, in line with its perceived interests.

And in a region that is just learning another lesson in distrust of the United States, Washington will surely recognize the power of others' self-interest.

David Gardner is an opinion writer for the Financial Times.

Long before Washington admitted defeat in Afghanistan, Middle Eastern leaders were aware that the 2003 US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq demonstrated the limits of America's power and inability to shape the region's geopolitics.

Despite America spending trillions of dollars in Iraq and Afghanistan on training and equipping their armed forces, the Iraqi army, which was weakened by corruption and sectarianism, had completely dissolved before the ISIS attack from Syria in 2014, just as the Afghan army left its American-made devices and fled the confrontation "Taliban".

• Iran may also be willing to cooperate with the United States on Afghanistan (as it did after the September 11 attacks), so that Afghanistan does not embrace ISIS again.

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