London - The

dawn of the new situation in Afghanistan, European differences, over the way to distribute the evacuated migrants between Western countries, and the way to deal with a possible wave of asylum, which the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees estimates may reach about half a million refugees, at a time when some pessimistic Western estimates speak About 5 million in the long run.

The European fear of a refugee wave similar to the one that occurred in 2015, when millions of Syrian refugees flocked to the European borders, and what was known at the time as the refugee crisis, is evident, as European leaders are currently holding meetings after another to develop a clear strategy to deal with this potential crisis, while the direction of the Another view says that the warnings of an Afghan refugee crisis are exaggerated.

In recent weeks, the Taliban managed to extend their control over all border crossings, and on August 15, the militants of the movement entered the capital, Kabul, and took control of the presidential palace, which prompted tens of thousands of Afghans to gather in front of Kabul Airport, before the withdrawal of US forces, to leave the country for fear of the rule of law. Taliban.

The United States said that it evacuated 40,000 Afghans from Kabul airport before withdrawing from the country on August 31, while European countries called on the Taliban to open the airport and allow Afghans wishing to travel to leave.


2015 scenario

"What happened in 2015 must not be repeated," was repeated by more than one European official, from French President Emmanuel Macron to senior leaders in German Chancellor Angela Merkel's party, led by Armen Laschet, the candidate to succeed her.

It appears from the discussions currently taking place in Europe that the political mood is not ready to accept a repetition of what happened more than 6 years ago.

Once again, Germany finds itself concerned with leading the European response to this new crisis, but this time from different approaches, by asking the European Union to speed up funding for Afghanistan's neighboring countries, and to establish a policy that prioritizes accepting asylum applications for children, women and people who have cooperated with Western countries in Afghanistan. and religious minorities.

Perhaps the most pessimistic scenario for this crisis is what was presented by the German Ministry of Interior, which said that the recent developments in Afghanistan may lead to the arrival of between 300,000 and 5 million refugees to Europe.

On the other hand, many research papers talk about an error in comparing what is happening now and what happened with Syrian refugees, for several reasons, including that Afghanistan is surrounded by countries that have secured its borders in a way that makes it almost impossible for the influx of hundreds of thousands of refugees. The evacuation from Kabul shows that the number of refugees will not rise significantly.

The German Green Party described the recall of the 2015 scenario as mere rhetoric of intimidation because the countries surrounding Afghanistan have fully reinforced their border security.


Western differences

Faced with this fear, the European Union found itself in front of a new dilemma, represented in the number of refugees that each country would receive, with German insistence that all countries assume their responsibility and accept refugees according to their economic size.

What added to the European embarrassment was Britain's rush to announce its goal to receive 20,000 refugees over the next five years, including 5,000 during this year, with the possibility of granting them permanent residence directly.

This British approach was rejected by Germany and supported by countries such as Luxembourg, which called for the European Union to set a ceiling on the number of refugees that must be received, and not to exceed 50,000 refugees, but Austria expressed a more stringent position, saying that it would not accept any new refugees, claiming that it had received during the past 40 years. A thousand Afghan refugees.

The issue is not without political outbursts, when British Prime Minister Boris Johnson responded to European criticism of his country, saying that the European Union, in which more than half a billion people live, needs new immigrants to compensate for the high number of elderly people in the European Union.

The features of the European refusal to receive refugees began with the incident of leaving a group of Afghan refugees in the border area between Poland and Belarus, where the two countries refused to receive them, and the group remained stuck between the borders.


far-right accounts

The file of Afghan refugees comes in special electoral circumstances that many Western countries are going through, beginning with Canada, whose Prime Minister Trudeau announced that his country will receive 20,000 Afghan refugees only to block the door for the extreme right to play this card.

As for Europe, the eyes are on Germany and France. The former is preparing to choose a new chancellor for the country, and it appears that there is a tendency not to repeat Merkel's policy of receiving the largest number of refugees, which was expressed by Parliament when it voted in favor of a law to determine the people who will benefit from asylum.

In France, the leader of the far-right Marine Le Pen found the opportunity to play the refugee and immigrant card again, when she declared that the developments in Afghanistan "will put our country at high risk of terrorist attacks" and predict a new wave of refugees.

Almost the same position was expressed by the Italian League leader Matteo Salvini, who expressed his support for providing safe passages for women and children who are in danger, but at the same time refused to open the door to thousands of men who might include potential terrorists.

No European leader will venture to adopt a bold asylum policy like that adopted by Merkel, given the electoral and political calculations of a number of European countries, and given the great blame the Europeans have on Washington, which they see as having abandoned them again, and they do not want to bear the responsibility for the American withdrawal from Afghanistan.