The Taliban Awakens Old Fears in Central Asia

The reassurances of the "Taliban" movement are still not convincing for many of its neighbors.

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AFP

The return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan is evoking bad memories for its former Soviet neighbors in Central Asia, which fear a combination of a refugee crisis and a jihadist threat.

The "Taliban" forces did not cross the borders of these countries, other than their first rule between 1996 and 2001, but they were a source of inspiration for jihadists in the region.

At that time, groups, particularly the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, found refuge in Afghanistan to launch cross-border attacks.

After two decades, the Central Asian regimes, for the most part, do not want to take any risks, and seek to prevent any influx of refugees, fearing the infiltration of armed Islamists from Afghanistan.

Believing that "disguised fighters" could hide among this population, Vladimir Putin encouraged his counterparts in Central Asia to close their doors to refugees, rejecting demands "crafted" by Washington, in the Russian president's words.

He added that "hundreds, even hundreds of thousands, maybe millions" of people, might want to flee Afghan territory.

Secret reception

In a sign of concern, and a desire not to get involved in the matter, Uzbekistan, the country with the largest population in the region, refuses to reveal how many Afghans have managed to cross the Amu Darya River, near the border town of Tarmiz.

He was not allowed to go to Agence France-Presse to go to a refugee camp on the Uzbek side, or to a center for "Covid patients" in Tarmiz, which includes a number of Afghans that may reach 1,500, according to a diplomat at the Afghan embassy.

The authorities of Uzbekistan themselves published contradictory information about the arrival of dozens of fleeing Afghan army helicopters and planes.

The media says that hundreds of Afghans have crossed the Amu Darya in flimsy boats.

But it seems that the matter is top secret, because a number of Tarmiz residents interviewed by Agence France-Presse, expressed their surprise, saying that they did not know anything about the Afghans who came to Uzbekistan.

However, businessman Abdulaziz Muhammad Janov (26 years old), however, asserts that “if the refugees arrive, they will be hosted.”

The authorities only spoke of about 2,000 people crossing the capital, Tashkent, after they were evacuated from Kabul by European countries, especially Germany.

In the face of anxious public opinion, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan had to officially deny taking in Afghan refugees, after rumors spread on social networks.

As for Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, they announced that they can absorb the displaced, but they said that the "Covid" epidemic may complicate the situation.

Ethnic factor

In the minds of all these countries, the past of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan is backed by the "Taliban" and accused of carrying out attacks in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, and even armed incursion into Kyrgyzstan.

This movement is currently very weak, but the presence of members of other ethnicities in Asia in the ranks of the "Taliban" and other extremist groups in Afghanistan, feeds fears of a new revival, according to Jennifer Brik-Murtazachvili, of the American University of Pittsburgh.

She believes that the "Taliban" may use "these fighters as a tool for influence in the countries of Central Asia." In the face of this threat, Russia has intensified its military exercises with its Central Asian allies and reported requests for new weapons from these countries.

Tajikistan, which shares a border of more than 1,300 km with Afghanistan, is the most concerned, and has so far refused direct dialogue with the Taliban, unlike Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

In early August, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon condemned the formation of "terrorist groups" on the Afghan side.

But Dushanbe denied sending weapons to the Tajik fighters in the Panjshir valley, which is resisting the "Taliban".

And between 1992 and 1997 this country, the poorest in the former Soviet Union, was devastated by a war against an Islamic insurgency that was finally defeated, but cadres from it formed the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.

For Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, “economic considerations can prevail and require a stronger relationship with (the Taliban),” said Parviz Moloyanov, visiting professor at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes Sociales in Paris, adding that for Tajikistan, “security passes first.”

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Tajikistan, which shares a border of more than 1,300 km with Afghanistan, is most concerned about the changing situation in Afghanistan and has so far refused direct dialogue with the Taliban, unlike Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

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