What kind of person is leading the Taliban, an armed group that has seized power in Afghanistan?
What is the relationship between the Taliban and the regional organization of the extremist organization IS = Islamic State?
In 2010, he was also responsible for the reconciliation between the Taliban and the former Afghan government (reconciliation reintegration team leader) in the United Nations Afghan support mission, and asked Professor Daisaku Higashi of Sophia University, who is familiar with the local situation.
(Interviewer: Genki Kitai, Reporter, International Affairs Department)
Q Who leads the Taliban?
The current Supreme Leader of the Taliban is Rev. Akhnzada.
The Taliban was formed in 1994, but in 2016 the second Supreme Leader, Master Mansour, died in a US airstrike.
Therefore, Master Akhnzada, who was number two at that time, took office.
With a long history of religious education, many of his students are combatants and are considered spiritual leaders.
On the other hand, they rarely appear in public, and it is unknown how detailed they are involved in decision-making.
Q So who is actually leading it?
The Taliban are said to actually have a group leadership system consisting of three deputy leaders under Akhnzada.
The three are ▼ Mr. Baradal, who is the head of the political sector ▼ Mr. Yakubu, the son of the first Supreme Leader Omar ▼ And the founding of the hard-line Haqqani Network (designated by the US government as a terrorist organization in 2012) This is Mr. Shirajudin Hackani, the son of Mr. Hackani.
Of these, Baradal is currently believed to play the most important role.
Q What kind of person is Mr. Baradal?
Baradal is virtually number two in the Taliban.
He was one of the founders of the Taliban with his first Supreme Leader, Mohammed Omar, and was also known by the United Nations as the most moderate in the leadership.
Around 2009, he tried to start a dialogue with then-President Karzai, but in 2010 he was detained by the neighboring Pakistani government.
After that, the US government, which began peace talks with the Taliban in 2018, worked on Pakistan and was released.
Baradal then continued full-scale negotiations with the United States on behalf of the Taliban's political office in Qatar, signing a peace agreement last February (2020).
This time, after the Taliban seized power, it was reported that he had a confidential meeting with the Secretary of the CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) in the United States, and he is believed to be a key person in the inauguration of the new administration.
Q What kind of person is other than Mr. Baradal?
Rev. Yakubu became one of the deputy leaders in 2016.
However, he has never appeared on the stage before, and there is a view that he is expected to continue to play a role as a spiritual leader as the son of Master Omar.
And although it has been pointed out that another Mr. Haqqani has a relationship with the international terrorist organization Al Qaeda, it is unknown to what extent it actually has a relationship.
There are various analyzes, but the Taliban seems to have been operating under the leadership of Rev. Baradal for at least the last year or two.
Q Are you in conflict with the IS regional organization that caused the suicide bombing?
The IS regional organization and the Taliban have a bad relationship, and they are very hostile to each other and have been fighting fiercely.
The organization that allegedly caused the terrorism is a branch of IS based in Iraq and Syria in the Middle East, and is said to have started operations in Afghanistan around 2014.
With the idea of expanding the organization to the whole world and challenging the hegemony of the United States, IS has been working to expand its power in Afghanistan while its power is shrinking in Iraq and Syria.
It is believed that the suicide bombing at the airport by the IS regional organization on the 26th had the aim of damaging confidence in the Taliban's ability to govern and start a new nation, and damaging the U.S. military. increase.
Q How will you deal with IS regional organizations in the future?
The Taliban have always argued that security would be better if they came to power.
Despite strict governance, people will be able to live with peace of mind.
However, if terrorism continues, people who desire stable security and the international community will have doubts about their ability to govern.
For the Taliban, how to curb attacks aimed at citizens is also an important issue, so it seems that we will be cracking down on it from now on.
Q The Taliban seems to be active in disseminating information, but what is the aim?
I think the aim is to appeal that we are an organization that can interact with Western countries.
The former Taliban administration, which collapsed in 2001 due to military operations such as the United States, was only approved by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and the UAE = United Arab Emirates.
I think the Taliban also have the will to prevent it.
The Taliban has issued a message to guarantee women's right to education and work, crack down on international terrorist organizations, and create a comprehensive government involving diverse ethnic groups in the country.
The question is how far these external promises will really be fulfilled.
Q How will the Taliban deal with each country?
The Taliban seems to have a desire to interact with major countries.
After the peace agreement with the United States, Rev. Baradal traveled to China, India, Russia and Iran, explaining the future direction of the Taliban and actively diplomacy for support.
However, at present, the IMF = International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have stopped supporting one after another, and the situation is being pushed into a difficult economic situation.
When this happens, the Taliban may rely on countries that set it apart from Western countries, such as China and Russia.
Afghanistan is located in the middle of Pakistan and Iran, where China is becoming more influential with financial support, and is a key point in advancing the Belt and Road Initiative.
China, which has a large number of Muslims in the country, wants to avoid instability in Afghanistan, and helps the country stabilize while increasing its influence on the Taliban-led regime. I think there is a high possibility that it will go on.
Q What are your future points?
I think the international community, including Japan, will see if what the Taliban has insisted on the outside world will really be put into practice.
The first is how much a comprehensive government with diverse ethnic groups will be realized.
Is it something that the Afghan people can convince without excluding certain powers and ethnic minorities?
The second is the issue of women.
The Taliban has repeatedly stated that it recognizes women's right to work and education.
I think it is very important not only how Western countries judge future policies, but also how countries with different systems such as China, Russia, and the Middle East evaluate them.
The third is how far we can fulfill our external commitment not to be the base of international terrorist organizations that would cause suicide bombings.
In this regard, the Taliban is also forced to steer difficult, as it is a matter of whether or not to build a cooperative relationship with the United States.
I think that if we can achieve security stability while seriously tackling these three issues, we may be able to build relationships with a certain number of countries that are accepted by the people and internationally. increase.