Three years ago, then President Trump of the United States implemented a policy to isolate children of illegal immigrants from their parents.

The inhumane measures were condemned around the world, but President Trump did not listen.

Then he posted a post on Twitter.

If such a strong anti-immigrant policy is not implemented, the crime rate will go up significantly like Germany.

He added that immigrants were violently changing German culture.



German Chancellor Angela Merkel responded immediately.

I didn't reply for a long time, I just replied to look at the stats.

The stats are as follows.

"Crime in Germany fell by 9.6% compared to the previous year, and crime committed by non-Germans also fell by 22.8%."

This is different from Trump's claim.

Many of our readers have commented on the refugees we covered in Mabu News last week.

Many people were curious about the data cited in various claims about refugees.

So, the question Mabu News raises today is this.



“Do refugees really commit more crimes?”


Crime in Germany is declining


First, let's look at the refugee situation in Germany. According to UN standards, the number of refugees in Germany in 2020 is 1.21 million. When a large number of refugees from the Middle East came to Europe in 2015, the number was close to 400,000 every year. Germany is actively accepting not only refugees but also migrants, and one in four people is surveyed as a population with a migration background. By 2040, this population is projected to increase from 35% to 40% of Germany's total.



Why are there so many refugees and immigrants? Because Germany is getting old. Germany has already entered a super-aged society. A super-aged society refers to a case in which the population aged 65 and over is 20% or more of the total population. The fertility rate is not increasing but stagnating, and the aging population is increasing as technology advances... but the vitality of the German economy has decreased. As the proportion of the economically productive population decreased, young workers were needed for the economy, and immigrants were trying to fill it. Should it be said that it is an original sin that cannot be washed away by World War II? The consciousness of reflecting on the history of Nazi Germany is also the reason why so many refugees are accepted.



So, did crime in Germany really increase with so many refugees? We analyzed data from the German Federal Criminal Office. The graph above shows the number of criminals and crimes in Germany from 2010 to 2020. In 2015, when the large-scale refugee movement began, the number of criminals increased sharply and the total number of crimes increased. In particular, the increase in foreign criminals is notable. As the number of foreigners inflow increases, the number of foreign criminals may also increase. The proportion of foreign criminals among foreigners residing in Germany increases from 7.6% in 2014 to 10.0% in 2015. Narrowing down only the proportion of immigrants to which refugees belong, it increased from 12.3% in 2014 to 21.7% in 2015 and to 27.2% in 2016.



However, as the number of refugees accepted by Germany increases every year, the number and rate of crime continues to decrease. If refugees commit more crime, the number of crimes should increase, but the data shows that it doesn't. Germany's crime rate in 2020 is the lowest since 1992. The ratio of the number of foreign criminals to the foreign population also peaked at 10.0% in 2015 and is declining every year. In 2020, that percentage has dropped to 5.8%. The percentage of refugee offenders has also been declining every year since 2016. However, the percentage of the number of criminals by major crime type, such as violent crime, could not be found in the data of the Federal Criminal Administration.



Q. Can refugees really help the economy?



Looking at the results of European studies that dealt with refugees and migrants earlier, European countries that received refugees show that their GDP increases after 3 to 5 years.

The French National Center for Scientific Research, the Center for International Development Research at the University of Clermont Auvergne, and the Institute for Economic Analysis at the University of Nanterre, economists and mathematicians, analyzed the EU and OECD data for 30 years from 1985 to 2015. is a positive factor for the national economy.

Not only did it increase GDP per capita, but it also increased tax revenue by about 1%.

Since most of the refugees are economically active populations, it is said that the unemployment rate is slightly reduced as it fills the industrial manpower shortage due to aging and is put into industries that local people do not want to do. 

Refugee fear feeds far-right parties


In 2016, a case of gang rape by a refugee occurred in Cologne, Germany. German public opinion, which welcomed refugees, turned around after this incident. A Pakistani disguised as a refugee attacked with an ax on a train, and there was a shooting at a shopping center in Munich. As the anxiety and fear of refugees grows, far-right parties against refugees begin to grow. Alternatives for Germany (AfD) is an extremely right-wing party that has adopted a program that states "Islam is not part of Germany". The AfD, which increased taxes as fear and hatred of refugees spread, took the third party in the parliament with 13.0% of the vote in the 2017 German Bundestag election. It is the first far-right party to enter parliament since World War II.



The power of far-right parties has risen sharply across Europe. The Swedish Democratic Party (SD), which advocated for Nazism in the past, took the third place in the 2018 general election with anti-Islam and anti-refugees. The progress of far-right parties in the European Parliament, formed in 2019, has a direct impact on the EU budget. What they all have in common is that refugees are at risk, commit more crimes and threaten the safety of our lives. It's like Trump's logic.



As seen with data from Germany, which received the most refugees, the number of crimes increased during the initial chaotic situation of the refugee influx, but has been steadily decreasing since then.

European governments are correcting misinformation and distorted numbers, but far-right groups are still trying to expand their power by instigating fear and hatred of refugees.

They say that the more refugees they receive, the more they help them expand their power.

As the refugee issue subsided after Corona 19, it is showing sluggish results, but with the great escape of Afghan refugees this time, there is also a prospect that it will make another leap forward.

Hate crimes that hinder resettlement


A study of Swiss immigrants by the European Institute for Economic Policy found that refugees who experienced war or genocide as children were 35% more likely to be involved in crime than those who did not. However, if resettlement is successful, the likelihood of criminal involvement is greatly reduced. In particular, it is most effective if financial independence is achieved. In order for refugees to make a soft landing, programs that help refugees successfully resettle are needed. The effect of refugee resettlement can also be explained by the fact that, in the German crime graph, the number of foreign crimes increased at the beginning of the inflow and then decreased continuously.



The problem is that crimes against refugees do not stop using trial and error that may occur during the resettlement process. In refugee camps in Europe, fires presumed to be arson broke out one after another, and in 2017, crimes such as physical assault and hate speech against refugees occurred 10 times a day in Germany at the time. In 2018, in Italy, a member of the Neo-Nazi Party opened fire on refugees passing by. 



In many cases, isolation is first chosen to avoid social conflict.

Right now, even in the current Afghanistan crisis, many refugees are avoiding the temporary camps built on the border with Pakistan, and there is a possibility that the EU will also provide financial support to countries around Afghanistan and block refugees from entering Europe.

However, these temporary camps are prone to overcrowding with many refugees, so there is a high possibility that they will be exposed to quite unsanitary conditions.

Due to the lack of water and soap, it is difficult to even prevent COVID-19 right now.

Of the 1.4 million refugees in urgent need of resettlement through the UN Refugee Agency in 2019, only about 60,000 have completed resettlement.


South Korea and refugees again


391 Afghan special contributors have entered the Republic of Korea.

The government says it plans to grant these people a long-term status of residence equivalent to that of a refugee.

A welcome banner was hung at the National Civil Service Human Resources Development Center in Jincheon, North Chungcheong Province, where special contributors will be admitted.

In order to support Jincheon people who welcomed refugees with a warm heart, a procession of purchases by citizens continued at Jincheon Mall, which sells Jincheon’s agricultural specialties.

There seems to be more compassion towards refugees than concerns and fears towards them.

However, many still express concerns about accepting refugees.

Rep. Cho Kyung-tae of People's Power said that he could be sure that none of the special contributors had anything to do with the Taliban, and he said that he should stop accepting them.



This is the letter Mabu News has prepared for you today.

I'm curious to know what you guys think about the refugee policies in Germany and Europe mentioned earlier.

Do refugees have the potential to cause social unrest?

Or are they the ones who need to reach out a hand of warmth?

Let us know in the comments what you think when there are still different opinions about refugee acceptance!

(*This article is an edited article from the Witchcraft Newsletter)



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