The death toll from the August 26 attack at the entrance to Kabul airport showed their ability to strike anytime, anywhere.

While the Taliban are taking power, with the departure of American troops, the Islamic State (IS) organization does not intend to end its bloody campaign in Afghanistan.

At war against the Taliban since 2015, the year of its establishment in the country, the jihadist group embodies the main threat to the new masters of Kabul. 

The IS can even hope to swell its ranks by taking advantage of possible Taliban missteps, or even recover its territorial base near the Pakistani border, if the American drones stop tracking them, according to Wassim Nasr, specialist in jihadist movements in France. 24.

France 24: Now that they are masters in Afghanistan, should the Taliban fear the jihadists of the Islamic State group?

Wassim Nasr:

Yes, because the IS group has been at war against the Taliban since 2015, the year of the establishment of the jihadist group in the country, especially in the provinces of Nangarhar and Kunar, near the Pakistani border. Even if it does not represent, for the moment, as it stands, a direct threat to the power of the Taliban, the latter take the threat seriously. When they opened the country's prisons, including that of Bagram, the Taliban liquidated the former emir of the IS group in his cell, while the other important detainees of the jihadist group remained captive. At the same time, hundreds of jihadists unrelated to the IS group were released. For its part, the group considers that the Taliban negotiated an amicable exit with the Americans,and perceive regime change in Kabul as a handover of power and not a victory for the Taliban. While no one can estimate the number of ISIS fighters in Afghanistan, we can measure its capabilities on the ground and its strike force through its actions, as in Kabul. Between assassinations, bomb attacks, car bombs, suicide bombings and rocket attacks, we can say that they have a significant capacity for nuisance, knowing that an attack is not expensive to finance.kamikaze attacks and rocket fire, we can say that they have a significant capacity for nuisance, knowing that an attack is not expensive to finance.kamikaze attacks and rocket fire, we can say that they have a significant capacity for nuisance, knowing that an attack is not expensive to finance.

How much does the Islamic State group really weigh in Afghanistan?

Initially, in 2015, the group under the command of Hafez Saïd Kha, killed in 2016 by an American drone, benefited from a territorial base in the provinces of Namgarhar and that of Kunar, near the Pakistani border. He quickly saw his ranks fill with individuals disillusioned by the Taliban, while managing to recruit from the population and attract foreigners from countries in the region, namely Pakistanis, Indians, and native fighters. of the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. The jihadists did not manage to maintain their territorial base for long because they were very quickly targeted by the Taliban, who feared being swallowed up by the IS group. They were then hunted down by the Afghan army and US forces. In 2017,Donald Trump was pleased to have ordered the dropping of the "mother of bombs" (Editor's note: the most powerful non-nuclear bomb in the American arsenal), against the IS group in Tora Bora, a very symbolic area, since it is the former stronghold of Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan.

If they were territorially defeated by the combination of parallel and not joint actions of the Taliban, the Afghans and the Americans, the jihadists had meanwhile woven their web in the urban environment. Particularly in cities like Kabul and Kandahar, where they have proven they can strike without needing to control territory. The group benefited from the reinforcement of sympathizers but also, and this is decisive, the disappointed of the Haqqani terrorist network, a family allied to the Taliban, who had the logistics and networks to enable them to carry out the bloodiest attacks. claimed by the EI group in Kabul, well before that of the airport a few days ago. In particular, in May, against a mosque led by an imam whom they judged to be deviant,or the bombing of the presidential palace in July.

What are the main challenges posed to the Taliban by the presence of the IS group?

Now in power, the Taliban find themselves in a rather funny situation, twenty years after September 11, since they are forced to engage in anti-terrorism to protect the large Afghan cities and the capital threatened by the jihadists.

Are they capable of it?

This is the big question.

Will the Americans continue to strike the IS group with their drones, and therefore directly help the Taliban contain the terrorist threat?

If the answer is no, who will be able to prevent the jihadists from reconstituting and re-establishing themselves in the territories?

The Taliban do not have an air strike force or a drone.

If the answer is yes, and there is cooperation between the United States and the Taliban regime, it could create, if it continues, dissension within the ranks of the new masters of Kabul. Such cooperation could especially benefit the IS group in propaganda and recruitment, because the Taliban cannot parade in Kabul and say that they have driven out the American enemy, and then collaborate with Washington, beyond that. that we have seen in recent days during the exfiltrations from the airport. The Pentagon itself said it gave information to the Taliban to counter the IS group. For their part, the new masters of Kabul did not blame the US military for the recent drone strikes that targeted the jihadists. This challenge is crucial,as well as the mode of governance of the Taliban, which will also be closely observed by jihadist movements, including Al-Qaeda networks. If the Taliban are seen as too soft on the strict application of Sharia law or too inclusive with Shiites and minorities, it could empty their ranks. And this, once again for the benefit of the EI group, whose ideology still attracts, and which can capitalize on the current upheavals to gain strength in this country.whose ideology still attracts, and who can capitalize on the current upheavals to gain strength in this country.whose ideology still attracts, and who can capitalize on the current upheavals to gain strength in this country. 

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