How does the middle-income army "expand the group"
【Economy Interface】
Residents’ income Gini coefficient (a measure of income disparity) is around 0.46, hovering at a high level; the scale of the middle-income group accounts for less than 40% of the overall population-two data clearly portray the reality of my country’s income distribution: it is still biased There is still a big gap between the dumbbell-shaped structure and the olive-shaped society.
Towards common prosperity in high-quality development, it calls for the expansion of middle-income groups and the construction of a relatively stable "olive-shaped" distribution structure.
The tenth meeting of the Central Finance and Economics Committee held on August 17 was far-sighted and planned for the layout-"Expand the proportion of middle-income groups, increase the income of low-income groups, rationally regulate high incomes, ban illegal incomes, and form a large middle income group and a small two ends. Olive-type distribution structure".
It is self-evident that the construction of an "olive-shaped" distribution structure is reconsidered in the context of the era of common prosperity.
How to expand the proportion of middle-income groups?
How to improve the income structure by means of redistribution?
From "dumbbell" to "olive", how far is there to go?
1. Common prosperity: "Expanding China" is imminent
How large is the middle-income group in China?
Ning Jizhe, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, once introduced at a press conference of the State Council Information Office that China has the world's largest and most growing middle-income group. In 2017, China's middle-income group has exceeded 400 million people.
What is the standard for the middle-income group?
According to Ning Jizhe, if the annual income of a typical family of three in China is between 100,000 and 500,000 yuan, there are 400 million people in China, 140 million families, and the ability to buy cars, houses, and leisure travel. It has formed strong support for the sustained and steady growth of my country's economy.
However, to measure the social distribution structure, in addition to looking at the number and scale of the middle-income group, it also depends on the proportion of the middle-income group in the total population.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the size of the middle-income group is about 400 million people. If calculated on the basis of 1.4 billion people, the middle-income population accounts for about 30%.
Pointing to several models on the computer screen, Zheng Gongcheng, a professor at Renmin University of China and president of the Chinese Society of Social Security, told reporters about the evolution of social patterns and income levels during the transition from a pyramid to a flat society.
"In the past, our low-income population accounted for the majority, and common prosperity should be a flat society, that is, all people can enjoy a high-quality, high-quality life. From a pyramidal society to a flat society, it is bound to go through an olive society. One form." Zheng Gongcheng, who has years of research and accumulation, pointed out the key to building an olive-shaped society: the need to clarify the policy of "lowering, expanding, and increasing" and a systematic plan of action.
As the "expansion" on the median line, it has become the focus of academic attention and policy making.
To change the status quo, we must first recognize the status quo.
Social wealth is becoming more abundant, but the Gini coefficient has always been high and difficult to control. The high income distribution gap has become a major practical issue that needs urgent attention.
To this end, Li Shi, a senior professor of liberal arts at Zhejiang University, also pointed out in his article that to achieve the process of common prosperity, we need to face two major "blockers": one is the relatively low proportion of middle-income people, and the other is that the income distribution gap remains high.
The Gini coefficient of 0.4 is usually regarded as the "warning line" of the income distribution gap.
From a historical perspective, Li Shi analyzed the new trends and new characteristics of the income gap in recent years.
He pointed out that in the first 15 years of the new century, the income gap among Chinese residents has undergone a process of rising and falling. The Gini coefficient, which measures income gap, rose from 0.48 in 2003 to 0.49 in 2008, and then fell to 0.464 in 2015.
However, starting in 2016, the income gap rebounded slightly, and in 2018 it rebounded to 0.469.
This shows that the income gap among residents has basically fluctuated at a high level in the past 10 years.
This trend has been recognized by more researchers.
"Narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor is a fundamental requirement for common prosperity. In recent years, with the completion of the task of poverty alleviation and the completion of a well-off society in an all-round way, the trend of narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor has become increasingly obvious, but the gap is still large. To solve this problem, it is necessary to solve this problem. Reshape my country's income distribution system, and make efforts in the first distribution, redistribution and the third distribution at the same time." Zheng Gongcheng believes.
The key to building an "olive-shaped" society is to expand the middle-income class in the "olive-shaped".
Cai Fang, former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and chief expert of a national high-end think tank, believes that expanding middle-income groups is an important way to increase the income and consumption levels of residents, improve the level and equalization of basic public services, and promote stability and unity, and improve social cohesion. .
In Cai Fang’s view, the definition of a middle-income group is not limited to an indicator of income level, but should also include other content related to the people’s quality of life. Stable employment, living conditions that meet basic needs, adequate supply of basic public services, a certain amount of household savings and moderate property income, and related consumption that exceeds basic survival needs, etc.".
2. Social mobility: can’t "you squeeze up and I will fall down"
I emptied my wallet and borrowed money from my family to pay the down payment. The monthly payment is nearly 10,000 yuan, the transportation fee is 500 yuan, plus the monthly tax deductions, food expenses and other necessary expenses. Yang Gang, who has worked in Beijing for 9 years, paid off after buying a house. The "Moonlight Clan".
With a monthly salary of 16,000 yuan, he does not think he is a middle class in first-tier cities. “The cash flow is tight and he dare not fall ill. He has to figure out how to save money every month, or he can’t afford a house.”
In fact, there are still many "middle class" like Yang Gang whose income level is in line with the "middle class" level, but can hardly withstand emergencies and whose income is unstable.
"Because the middle-income group is inherently vulnerable to the economic development cycle, under the conditions of increasing downward pressure on the economy, industrial structure transformation and upgrading, and rapid changes in the occupational structure, coupled with the new crown pneumonia epidemic may continue for a long period of time, the middle class is not affected. The sense of security will rise, and the inner uncertainty will also increase. I am worried that I will be eliminated by the times and lose my job. The current living standards of middle-aged people will decrease, and there is even the fear of falling into the poor." Vice President of the Chinese Academy of Labor and Social Security Sciences Mo Rong admitted frankly.
Mortgage loans, car loans, medical care, pensions... The pressure has made many middle-income groups "tired".
"Some friends have reserved 1,000 yuan per month for themselves after buying a house." Yang Gang told reporters that through his own efforts, he has reached the edge of the middle class to "settle" from a small city to a first-tier city, but Everyone has a strong sense of anxiety, especially when it comes to the education of children, "I am afraid of falling again."
This sense of anxiety undoubtedly stems from the relatively large rigid expenditures and concerns about future uncertainties.
The core of expanding middle-income groups is to eliminate these worries and accelerate social mobility.
Cai Fang's analysis pointed out that historical social mobility was mainly horizontal movement, and horizontal movement also included vertical movement, such as the improvement of residents' income, status, status, and job promotion.
And now, my country has entered a period of medium-to-high-speed growth, and the flow of labor has slowed down significantly. At this time, more attention should be paid to the upward vertical flow.
"If there is no practical means, social mobility will easily become a zero-sum game, which is equivalent to squeezing a bus. If you squeeze in, I will fall. If this phenomenon occurs, social conflicts will also occur." Cai Fang said vividly. Make this analogy.
In order to expand the middle-income group, Cai Fang proposed the "doubling plan" and focused this plan on the three major groups of low-income rural population, migrant workers, and the elderly after being lifted out of poverty.
Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of my country, nearly 100 million rural people in absolute poverty have been lifted out of poverty in China, but they are still low-income groups.
"The relative poverty standard in OECD countries is 50% of the median income of residents. In 2019, the median income of rural residents in my country is 14,389 yuan, and 50% of it is 7,195 yuan. Assume that 30% of rural households meet this standard The total number of people is at least 153 million, and the number is very impressive. If this part of the population can be cultivated as a middle-income group, it will create another miracle of common prosperity." Cai Fang settled an account.
At the same time, if 291 million migrant workers and 270 million people over the age of 60 can be turned into middle-income groups, it will not only conform to the social process of common prosperity, but will also be of great significance for continuing to support China's sustained economic growth.
Zheng Gongcheng believes that it is necessary to break the barriers of interest consolidation and improve the sharing system arrangements: accelerate the improvement of the social security system, optimize and improve the institutional arrangements for endowment insurance, medical security, and social assistance as soon as possible, accelerate the development of various welfare undertakings in an all-round way, and effectively remove them. Worry for the whole people; speed up the promotion of equalization of basic public services, especially public services for the elderly, children, women and the disabled.
3. Close the gap: Let more people join the middle-income group
The “Opinions on Supporting Zhejiang’s High-Quality Development and Building a Demonstration Zone of Common Prosperity” issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council proposed to double the income of residents and middle-income groups in terms of “expanding the proportion of middle-income groups and increasing the incomes of low-income groups”. Plan to promote the first demonstration of the income distribution system; in terms of “reasonably regulating excessively high incomes, encouraging high-income groups and enterprises to return more to the society”, it is clearly necessary to build a “good deed Zhejiang” in an all-round way, establish a sound incentive mechanism for repaying the society, and encourage and guide high incomes. Income groups and entrepreneurs are going up for good, participating in public undertakings, etc.
Common prosperity is the essential requirement of socialism and has become the common expectation of the people.
The tenth meeting of the Central Finance and Economics Committee has a clear-cut stand-common prosperity is the prosperity of all people, the material and spiritual life of the people are rich, not the prosperity of a few people, nor is it uniform egalitarianism, we must promote common prosperity in stages.
Han Wenxiu, the deputy director of the Central Finance Office in charge of daily work, said recently that to achieve common prosperity, we must encourage hard work, innovation and innovation, encourage hard-working, legal business, and daring to start a business, and allow some people to get rich first, and get rich first. After the rich, help the rich, do not engage in "killing the rich and helping the poor."
When it comes to common prosperity, Zhejiang must be mentioned.
Zhejiang, which has made demonstration and exploration in the field of common prosperity, has introduced many policies. The "Opinions on Supporting Zhejiang's High-quality Development and Construction of Common Prosperity Demonstration Zones" also regard the establishment of a scientific and reasonable income distribution pattern as a major focus of building an olive-shaped society.
In fact, expanding the middle-income group is not only a question of development but also a question of distribution.
The primary distribution, redistribution, and three distributions jointly determine the distribution pattern of the entire society, and it is necessary to design a coordinated system arrangement for the three.
In the book "National Competitiveness", Michael Porter divides economic growth into four stages: the first stage is factor-driven, relying on resources and labor; the second stage is investment-driven, with resources and large-scale investment of capital ; The third stage is innovation-driven, relying on the improvement of technology and productivity; the fourth stage is wealth-driven.
Cai Fang believes that from now to 2035, China is in the third and fourth stages of development.
He believes that what needs to be done right now is to closely integrate the drive for innovation and the drive for wealth.
"At this stage of development, what cannot be avoided in realizing modernization is to promote the equalization of basic public services. If the per capita GDP is between US$10,000 and US$25,000, the government's social welfare expenditure can be increased from 26% to 36%. This 10 percentage points. The improvement of the social security system means that the social security system will be more complete." Cai Fang said.
Experts pointed out that it is necessary to effectively protect and improve people's livelihood, continue to implement active macro-control policies, and strengthen policy support in the fields of education, health, housing, social security and other public products.
Mao Fengfu, a professor at the School of Economics at Zhejiang Gongshang University, categorized the policy focus into two points: doing a good job of comprehensive projects and strengthening skills training for low-income groups.
It is necessary to provide more guaranteed vocational training, do a good job in upgrading the skills of low-income groups, and improve the labor production efficiency and job matching ability of low-income groups.
Mo Rong believes that to stabilize the middle-income group, it is necessary to create more middle- and high-income jobs.
On the one hand, it is necessary to expand the opening of the service industry market, implement a negative list management system in the areas of producer services and life services, liberalize the market in an orderly manner, and implement policies to support the development of the service industry.
On the other hand, it is necessary to develop modern agriculture in conjunction with the rural revitalization strategy, and develop agricultural mechanization and intelligent positions related to agricultural modernization, so that some new-minded farmers can increase their incomes through these occupations and become new forces for middle-income groups.
(Reporter Li Hui)