Trapped in Kabul, the Afghans now have to face a shortage of cash, the banks having closed on August 15, the day of the capture of the capital by the Taliban.
"Not only is my family stranded in Kabul, but they cannot even withdraw money," testifies to France 24 Abdul, a refugee in France for ten years.
No more transfers through Western Union either, whereas Abdul used to regularly send funds from Paris to help his parents.
More than a week after the flash storm of the Afghan capital, a growing number of the country's residents face a daily struggle to cope, as they have lost their jobs and most banks are still closed.
نرخ فی لیتر گاز در بازار های کابل ۸۵ افغانی و فی لیتر تیل ۷۰ افغانی و قیمت مواد خوراکی که با گذشوز مزابدزد
تا حال تمام بانک ها بسته و مردم پول فیزیکی ندارند و داد و ستد جریان ندارد تا پول در گردش آید.
یک هفته می شود مردم در یک تنگنای اقتصادی موهوم به سر می برند.
pic.twitter.com/6dSISHwT2L
- Taseen_rayed (@TaseenAkber) August 24, 2021
"I have been in hiding for over a week. I am running out of food and money. Even though I take the risk of getting out of hiding, the banks are closed and I have no way of getting money I need for urgent shopping, "Ariana tells Observers of France 24. This human rights activist was unable to leave her town in eastern Afghanistan before arriving Islamists and his handicap makes his situation even more difficult.
"I can't see a doctor either. I'm just waiting to die here," she says.
Inflation of basic foodstuffs
Even before the Taliban invaded Kabul, conditions in the country had already worsened - the rapid advance of insurgents in provincial towns caused the value of the local Afghan currency to fall against the dollar and led to the inflation of local populations. food prices. The prices of flour, oil and rice thus climbed by 10 to 20% in a few days. "A few grocery stores are open, but the bazaars are empty," a former official who was in hiding for fear of Taliban reprisals told Reuters on Sunday.
Like him, many civil servants have lost their jobs. "I am totally lost, I don't know what to think first, about my safety and survival or how to feed my children and my family," a former police officer, who went into hiding, told Reuters. The man who lives with his wife and four children has lost a monthly salary of $ 260, which he hasn't even received in the past two months.
“I live in a rental apartment, I haven't paid the landlord for the past three months,” he said.
During the week he says he tried to sell two rings and a pair of earrings belonging to his wife, but like many businesses the gold market was closed and he couldn't find buyer.
"I am very confused and I don't know what to do."
"It will no longer be possible to earn money"
In Kunduz, a northern town devastated by weeks of fighting, buildings are destroyed, and stocks of street vendors have been stolen or ransacked. "Some have started to rebuild their stores, but not their houses, because people have fled and have not yet returned, or they do not have the money for it," noted an entrepreneur interviewed by AFP on Wednesday.
He himself had to close his box of cosmetics, because people, worried about the future, especially in the face of rising prices, only buy basic foodstuffs: rice, potatoes, bread.
"People don't even eat fruit any more. They think that it is necessary to save, because it will not be possible to earn any more money in the future," he says.
"They don't even use soap or shampoo anymore."
Central bank liquidity frozen abroad
In order to "solve the economic problems facing the population," the Taliban announced Tuesday that it had appointed an interim head of the Afghan Central Bank, which had been deserted since the fall of Kabul. In charge of this colossal task, Haji Mohammad Idris is a veteran Taliban with no formal financial training or higher education qualification, but he was the head of the movement's financial section.
The challenge is great because the economic system of Afghanistan, one of the seven poorest countries in the world, lives on a drip from the liquidity provided by international aid. But this is drying up day by day. The World Bank, which until then had carried out about twenty development projects in Afghanistan, announced on Tuesday that it had suspended its aid. Another international institution, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which was to pay Kabul a final tranche of some 105.6 million dollars as part of a program totaling 370 million dollars, warned from the August 18 of the suspension of its aid.
As for the currency reserves of the Afghan National Bank (DAB), they are mostly blocked abroad.
Until now, the United States has sent a weekly shipment of dollars belonging to the DAB reserves.
The last shipment was on Friday August 13, two days before the fall of Kabul.
No greenback has entered the country since.
The former governor of the bank, Ajmal Ahmady, who is among those who fled on August 15 on board the very first military planes, quipped on Twitter, explaining to the Taliban why the country's coffers were empty.
"The Taliban have won militarily, but now they have to rule. It's not easy," he wrote.
This thread is to clarify the location of DAB (Central Bank of Afghanistan) international reserves
I am writing this because I have been told Taliban are asking DAB staff about location of assets
If this is true - it is clear they urgently need to add an economist on their team
- Ajmal Ahmady (@aahmady) August 18, 2021
"I am writing this because I have been told that the Taliban are asking DAB personnel where the assets are. If this is true, it is clear that they need to add an economist to their team urgently."
The main financial institution of the country does not hold reserves "physically in our coffers", continues the former governor, who asks the Taliban not to attack the personnel of the banks.
"By international standards, most assets are placed in safe, liquid assets like sovereign bonds or gold."
And Ajmal Ahmady to worry about the consequences for the Afghan population.
"The currency will depreciate. Inflation will increase (…). This will affect the poorest because the price of food will increase", he warns.
Therefore, my base case would be the following:
- Treasury freezes assets
- Taliban have to implement capital controls and limit dollar access
- Currency will depreciate
- Inflation will rise as currency pass through is very high
- This will hurt the poor as food prices increase
- Ajmal Ahmady (@aahmady) August 18, 2021
With AFP and Reuters
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