What is happening in Kabul is being heard in Erbil

BAGHDAD -

The Taliban movement's ability to enter the Afghan capital, Kabul without a fight, amid the complete collapse of the Afghan army, which is equipped with the latest American weapons, has raised fears among Iraqi forces of a repetition of the scenario in Iraq, with the demands of some parties, especially Shiites, for the withdrawal of American forces from all their bases and the continuation of their attacks. On the US embassy in Baghdad and Erbil, and the Ain al-Assad base, which includes foreign forces in Anbar Province, in the west of the country.

The exit of the US forces may draw unexpected changes for the future of Iraq and a new complex road map more than 18 years after the US invasion of the country.

Al-Baydar: The US armed presence is hostage to the security situation in Iraq (Al-Jazeera)

Security fragility

Regarding the expected changes in the near future, writer and political analyst Ali Al-Baydar says that the armed American presence is not dependent on an American desire or on the position of the Iraqi government as much as it is hostage to the security situation. The survival of the American forces came with an official request from the Iraqi government to regain the cities of north and northwest Iraq from the control of the Islamic State.

Al-Baydar asserts that the Iraqi street in general is afraid of the idea of ​​withdrawal for reasons that are led by the lack of readiness of the security forces with the presence of political crises that may lead to catastrophic results, as the region in general is still fragile in security, and the first experience of the American withdrawal from cities at the end of 2011 led to the control of the “Islamic State” organization over large parts of the north and northwest of the country.

And the weakness of the security services is a reason supported by a member of the Parliament of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq from the Kurdistan Democratic Party, Rebwar Babkeye, especially in Baghdad and the provinces outside the region, while indicating that the matter is different with the region because the Peshmerga forces have combat experience with ISIS through battles during which they were able to expel the organization and extend its influence over A number of regions in the north of the country.

Berwari admitted that there is real concern about a repetition of what happened in Afghanistan in Iraq (Al-Jazeera)

Reality of anxiety

Despite the warning of Massoud Barzani, the leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the former president of Iraqi Kurdistan, against comparing the Afghan situation to the situation in the region, stressing in a statement that “anyone who intends to sow disappointment, shake self-confidence, and spread unreasonable comparisons among the people seems to have been unable so far to They understand the will and steadfastness of the people of Kurdistan."

On the ground, however, reality is not without fears to copy what happened in Afghanistan to Iraq.

These fears and concerns are confirmed by analyst and political researcher Abdul Salam Barwari in his speech to Al Jazeera Net, saying, "America itself has tried to establish a civil system in Afghanistan, but corruption and poor services have resulted, which has been happening in Iraq since 2003," adding that Washington itself has spent billions, equipped and trained Afghan forces. And Iraq, and as a result, Kabul fell, and the scene may be repeated in Iraq, and there is a previous experience in this regard after the US withdrawal memorandum in 2011, which later led to the fall of Iraqi provinces in the hands of ISIS, and for this there is real concern.

Al-Baydar continues his talk to Al-Jazeera Net that there are two parties that can control certain areas if the American withdrawal takes place, namely ISIS and the armed Shiite groups that are gradually trying to swallow the state completely, after they managed to control important joints in it.

For his part, the Kurdish political observer and academic Rebin Salam considered that the demands of some Shiite parties to expel the American forces outbid others, especially as we are heading to the parliamentary elections on October 10 next.

Salam ruled out a repetition of the Afghanistan scenario in Iraq because of its oil wealth (Al-Jazeera)

different situation

Other reasons combined make the reality of Iraq completely different from Afghanistan due to the nature of the location, resources and the multiplicity of sects.

Salam says that what is happening in Afghanistan cannot happen in Iraq, attributing the reason to the country's oil power and that its collapse will affect the world economy because of the necessity and importance of the amount of oil exports, which makes many global and regional countries supportive of it against any armed collapse that could happen, unlike Afghanistan, which depends on agriculture About 60% of it is consumed internally, in addition to the public incubator, as the Taliban movement enjoys greater societal acceptance in Afghanistan for ideological reasons, unlike Iraq, whose society rejects the Islamic State and other armed organizations in many provinces, especially in the cities of Iraqi Kurdistan, which makes its incubators completely non-existent in the region.

The Kurds oppose the US withdrawal in anticipation of any uncalculated developments, says Berwari, and stresses the need to think more realistically by the parties wishing to leave the Americans and to wonder whether there is logistical and intelligence support that can be relied upon in Iraq, calling on the forces wishing to review their decision, stressing that some parties That parliament voted to withdraw the US forces is looking for a way out of the crisis because it does not dare to give up and withdraw and that it is embarrassed because of the vote.

Salam stressed that the Iraqi Kurdistan government did not vote on the Americans’ exit because it knows the risks that may follow the withdrawal, while Al-Baydar believes that the United States itself is not thinking of withdrawing due to the presence of political and societal desires that it adheres to, especially in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, which includes an American military base that carries out joint security tasks with Kurdish Peshmerga forces to combat terrorism, in addition to the region's politicians' assertion that the US forces will remain to protect the region's borders from all potential dangers from ISIS or attacks by Shiite groups loyal to Iran.

There is no doubt that America is thinking of its interests that it came for, and therefore it will not easily succumb to pressure. According to Salam, the Americans have given assurances not to withdraw completely, but rather partially and gradually and in a way that does not affect the security situation while maintaining consultations and communication.

This is the same opinion expressed by Al-Baydar, stressing that the region is a strategic ally of the United States and receives European support for the Kurdish cause.