The country is threatened with partition due to regional interactions with neighboring countries

American researcher: The story of Afghanistan will not end with the control of the "Taliban"

The Taliban may not be able to extend its influence over the entire Afghan soil.

EPA

It may come to mind that the developments of the scene in Afghanistan may be limited to the Taliban’s control over the joints of the state and its imposition of its extremist vision, but the problem appears to be deeper than that, as it may divide Afghanistan itself due to regional interactions with neighboring countries.

Michael Rubin, a fellow of the American Enterprise Institute, who specializes in Iran, Turkey and the Middle East in general, says in a report published by the American magazine "National Interest", that the "Taliban" movement seized the presidential palace in Kabul and completed its blitzkrieg through Afghanistan.

President Ashraf Ghani fled the country in disgrace.

Defense Minister Bismillah Khan Mohammadi wrote, "They tied our hands from behind and sold the country.. Curse on Ghani and his gang."

The Blame Game

The blame game is underway in Washington. President Joe Biden blamed his predecessor, President Donald Trump, and the peace deal with the Taliban that set a deadline for US withdrawal. The agreement under Trump was not well-thought-out, but Biden's excuses are deceptive for three reasons. First, the Taliban did not abide by the agreement and invalidated it. Second, the US withdrawal deadline passed several months ago, and finally, Biden did not honor other Trump-era agreements on the border wall and the Keystone XL pipeline, so the notion that Trump has his hands tied is nonsense.

However, while the Taliban flag now flies over the presidential palace in Kabul, the movement's victory is not the end of the story.

The Taliban's vanity is not so much a measure of their popularity as a result of their support from Pakistan. Afghans rarely fight to the death, instead gravitating to the stronger side.

Biden's display of weakness and ruthlessness was a gift to Taliban leaders seeking to persuade state governors to step down from power in exchange for their lives.

The Taliban is not strong

However, the Taliban is not as strong as it might seem.

Rubin says that in March 2000, he visited the "Islamic Emirate of the movement."

At that time, the Taliban controlled 90% of the country.

The movement has put pressure on Washington to recognize it.

"I drove through the Khyber Pass from Peshawar in Pakistan, then visited Jalalabad, Kabul, Ghazni and Kandahar," Rubin said.

In each city, Afghans said, the security that they (the Taliban) promised when the movement first arrived quickly disappeared when the movement itself began to prey on the people.

While some progressives, isolationists, and other critics of traditional American foreign policy say the administration of the late President Ronald Reagan created the Taliban, this is outdated nonsense: the United States supported warlords like Ahmed Shah Massoud and others who became the core of the Northern Alliance. who fought the Taliban.

During this period, the Northern Alliance held out.

Many of his associates crossed the Tajik border, which was among the few open to them.

Rubin said that in 1997, he also visited Mazar-i-Sharif, which at that time was under the control of Abdul Rashid Dostum.

He then entered from Termez in Uzbekistan, the route by which Uzbekistan and Turkey supported their proxy warlord.

In 1999, Iran and the Taliban movement nearly went to war after the movement massacred Iranian diplomats and intelligence agents at its consulate in Mazar-i-Sharif.

The Iranians supported Ismail Khan as a proxy warlord while he did not control the land.

Neighboring countries' concerns

Rubin says that every country in Afghanistan's neighbors except Pakistan fears the Taliban.

Each is expected over the next few weeks to be sponsored by militias and warlords who will attempt to seize territory along the border to serve as a buffer.

Russia will certainly help the former Soviet republics bordering Afghanistan, because Russia fears extremism among its growing Muslim population.

Because the Taliban has relied more on momentum than its military prowess, this means that it may soon lose some peripheral states.

Herat Province, for example, is Persian in culture and, in fact, was part of Iran.

And if Iran makes a concerted effort to put one of its proxies in power there, it is likely to succeed.

It can also assert its control over Farah and Nimroz, two other states with which it shares borders.

The same is true of the Badakhshan region in northeastern Afghanistan bordering Tajikistan.

With Afghanistan's neighbors active and nurturing new proxies, it may take a year or two of low-intensity fighting with the Taliban before they establish their own spheres of influence and divide Afghanistan again as it was during the civil war of the 1990s.

At the conclusion of his report, Rubin says that the "Taliban" may declare its victory today, but for Afghanistan it does not represent the end of the fighting more than it is a chapter in a bloody history.

"Get ready for the next stage in the Afghan civil war," he adds.

• The Taliban's sense of pride is not a measure of their popularity as much as it is a result of their support from Pakistan. Afghans rarely fight to the death, but instead gravitate to the stronger side.

• It is expected that over the next few weeks every of Afghanistan's neighbors except Pakistan will sponsor militias and warlords, who will try to seize territory along the border to serve as a buffer.

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