Confusion and conflicting reports.. How did America fail intelligence in Afghanistan?

The military expert at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracy, Bill Roggio, accused the US intelligence of direct responsibility and failure to anticipate what Afghanistan witnessed during the last days and hours, despite all the evidence for that.

Roggio - who has direct experience in the battlefields where he served in the US military for years - tweeted that "US military and intelligence leaders are directly responsible for the largest intelligence failure since 1968, how did the Taliban plan this large-scale attack? How did they arrange it? And how did they choose its paths?" And how did you implement it despite the presence of US forces, the Central Intelligence Agency, the Military Intelligence Agency, and the National Intelligence Center?

Roggio added in a subsequent tweet that: The US military and intelligence establishment convinced itself that the Taliban would negotiate, at a time when the Taliban's military strategy was only aimed at "gaining time and influence" by prolonging negotiations, and US intelligence could not understand the fact that the Taliban had Really trying to take over the country by force.

Estimated confusion

The past days have witnessed confusion and various assessments by the US intelligence services of the strength of the Taliban organization, and the ability of the Afghan army forces to withstand any progress by the Taliban.

Pentagon sources told The Wall Street Journal that the intelligence estimates in its assessment of the situation in Afghanistan are that the Taliban can isolate the capital, Kabul, within 30 days, and control it within 90 days.

Days before that, a US intelligence report concluded that the Afghan government would fall into the hands of the Taliban within 6 months once the US withdrawal from Afghanistan was completed.

In another approach, the Wall Street Journal reported that previous estimates indicated that the Afghan government could remain in power for two years after the withdrawal of US forces.

Based on the intelligence that US President Joe Biden receives daily, Biden told a press conference on July 8, "We have provided our Afghan partners with all the tools and equipment, and let me assure that they have all the tools, training, and equipment that any modern army needs," he added. Biden, "We have provided advanced weapons, we will continue to provide funding and equipment, and we will ensure that they are able to maintain their air force."

One reporter asked, “Is a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan inevitable now?” Biden responded that “the Afghans have 300,000 soldiers as well-equipped as any army in the world, with an air force that the Taliban lacks, and they are facing the Taliban’s forces that do not exceed their numbers.” 75,000 items.

Before adding that the fall of Kabul "is not inevitable."

Afghan army or Taliban?

On the other hand, the United States Military Academy West Point's Counter-Terrorism Center patrol last January conducted a study on the Afghan army's ability to withstand the Taliban by answering the question: If the United States withdrew what Remaining of its forces from the country, will the Afghan security forces or the Taliban be militarily stronger?

According to an assessment across 5 factors (the number of troops, size of material resources, external support, employment of force, and cohesion), the study concluded that the Taliban would have a slight military advantage if the United States withdrew its remaining forces from Afghanistan, which would then likely increase exponentially.

The study concluded that if the United States withdrew the remainder of its forces from Afghanistan, the Taliban would have a slight military advantage that would increase exponentially over time.

At the same time, the US intelligence services ignored the warnings of the Defense Department's inspector general, who warned that "the Afghan army forces are not yet able to secure the Afghan government."

In testimony before Congress two years ago, Brigadier General Douglas Lute, who served in charge of Afghanistan in the White House during the years of George Bush and Barack Obama, acknowledged that the US agencies did not understand the nature of the Afghan people and society.

“We couldn't get a basic understanding of Afghanistan, we didn't know what we were doing there, we only had a vague idea of ​​what we were doing. As my colleagues reported, American officials also admitted that they routinely make rosy statements about their progress in Afghanistan, and even hid Unmistakable evidence years ago that the war had become unwinnable," says Lott.