Al Jazeera Net reviewed it.. US assessments -not taken seriously - predicted the current Afghanistan scenario

WASHINGTON -

A US government report cited former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford's warning;

And who confirmed - in his testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee (in March 2014) - that "the Afghan security forces will begin to deteriorate upon the withdrawal of the international coalition forces, and the only discussion will be about the pace of this deterioration."

Although reports and analyzes indicate shock or surprise the rapid progress of the Taliban forces and the collapse of the Afghan army and police forces during the past few days;

Many of the "publicised and published" official US reports issued by several governmental oversight bodies;

She warned against the scenarios currently underway, and made recommendations and proposals to avoid them.

Al Jazeera Net was briefed on reports issued by 3 parties;

It is the Office of the Department of Defense's Inspector General on the Situation in Afghanistan, the Office of Government Accountability, and the Office of the Congressional Research Service.

Each of them included provisions confirming the failure of the US building process for the army and police forces in Afghanistan.

The reports presented lessons learned from repeated mistakes, and provided advice and recommendations to the US leadership in Afghanistan, and to decision-makers in the US capital, on how to avoid the collapse of the state and the army in the event of the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan.

Ratings of the Inspector General of the Ministry of Defense

Congress required the Pentagon to submit a quarterly report on developments in Afghanistan, and the Office of the Special Inspector General submitted hundreds of pages of detailed reports on Afghanistan's reconstruction;

It focused on security risks and corruption in all sectors of the Afghan government, including the army and police.

Since the beginning of 2019, the Pentagon's Office of the Inspector General has issued 13 security-related reports and 8 quarterly updates on Afghan security forces and the training, support, and advisory programs implemented by US and international coalition forces inside Afghanistan.

And the Office of the Inspector General of the Ministry of Defense, in its report for the last quarter of 2020, conveyed an assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency that the Taliban maintains ties with Al-Qaeda and that some Al-Qaeda members are "integrated into the Taliban forces and its command structure."

Between 2017-2020, the US Department of Defense did not conduct the monitoring required to provide advanced and sensitive defense and technological equipment to the Afghan government, ensuring that risks are minimized by preventing the diversion or misuse of such equipment;

As a result, some of them were subjected to theft or loss.

Assessments also indicate that since 2010, Washington has committed more than $8.5 billion to develop a capable and sustainable Afghan air force, but any withdrawal from Afghanistan could leave the Afghan armed forces paralyzed without vital support.

Also in the context of evaluation;

Ineffective management and control of fuel, equipment, and uniforms purchased by the United States for Afghan military personnel have resulted in millions of dollars lost through waste or fraud.

It also turned out that many buildings erected by US-funded contractors were poorly constructed, unsafe, and in some cases unused.

Afghan army forces stand at a checkpoint in the capital, Kabul, amid the progress of Taliban forces towards the (European) capital

Threats outweigh their predecessors

In the same context, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, John Sobko, indicated - in a report issued in September 2017 - that the US government was not prepared to conduct security sector assistance programs of the required size and scope in Afghanistan.

According to the report, a lack of common terminology, concepts, and models has undermined communications and coordination, damaged trust, intensified friction and skirmishes, and contributed to a lack of resources necessary for US efforts to develop the Afghan military.

The initial US plans for Afghanistan focused only on fighting terrorism, and did not include developing an Afghan army or police or supporting institutions at the ministerial level;

Rather, early US partnerships with independent militias, intended to advance Washington's counterterrorism goals, undermined efforts to establish the Afghan army.

The United States provided weapons systems, administrative approaches, and Western weapons to Afghan forces whose soldiers are mostly illiterate and lack proper training, and the institutional infrastructure required increasing American financial support without progress.

The report indicated that the mission of the Americans in Afghanistan during the year 2021 is exposed to more threats than at any time in the past 20 years.

American reports talked about the weakness of the Afghan forces and that the American training was not beneficial to them (European)

The effect of reducing US forces

On the other hand, the report of the Congressional Research Service - issued on 11 June last - indicated the assertion of Afghan forces officials that the reduction of forces will not lead to significant changes in the tasks of the Americans inside Afghanistan, which revolve around combating terrorism and training, advising, and assisting Afghan forces. .

However, the report noted that some US military officials asserted at the time that the reduction in the level of forces ordered by President Trump could reduce the limits of US military capabilities inside Afghanistan.

Observers - including the Afghanistan Study Group commissioned by Congress - have questioned the extent to which the United States will be able to perform its tasks in Afghanistan with only 2,500 American soldiers.

In his April 14 speech, President Joe Biden said, "We will reorganize our counterterrorism capabilities in the region to prevent the re-emergence of terrorists in Afghanistan," but experts and observers questioned this after the completion of the withdrawal of US forces.

At the same time, the report referred to the miscalculation of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, who said - in a press conference held in May 2021 - that "bad results are not inevitable in Afghanistan";

Given what he described as the strengths of the Afghan government and army.

Less positive reviews

The report highlighted other assessments of the US government that were less positive. In its annual threat assessment for 2021, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence stated that "the Afghan government will struggle to rein in the Taliban if the coalition withdraws support and its forces withdraw."

US military officials said that various options - including remote training (which has been in place largely since the emergence of the Corona pandemic) or training of Afghan personnel in other countries - are under consideration to continue to support Afghan forces after the withdrawal of US forces.

Some reports highlighted the exaggeration of some officials in the US administration of the Taliban organization's need for international assistance, and that this would be a pressure factor on it to reduce its positions at the negotiating table.

In contrast, a recently declassified National Intelligence Council assessment stated that "the Taliban's desires for foreign aid and legitimacy may moderate their behavior marginally over time," but that "the Taliban may initially focus on expanding their control on their own terms."