American analyst:

Despite the worsening crisis in Lebanon, there is still an opportunity to draw lessons

• A protest march against the living conditions on the first anniversary of the Beirut port bombing.

  EPA

• A memorial ceremony for the victims of the Beirut port bombing on the first anniversary of the disaster.

  EPA

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The explosion of the port of Beirut, contrary to what many had hoped, did not lead to the implementation of the necessary reforms to save Lebanon, but rather entrenched the corrupt political culture and exacerbated the economic and political crisis afflicting the country.

Despite this, the American foreign policy analyst, Alexander Langlois, believes that there is still an opportunity to draw lessons from the lesson of the disaster, if world leaders increase their involvement, and the Lebanese people continue to demand change in the coming months.

In a report published by the American magazine "National Interest", Langlois said that looking at Lebanon after the first anniversary of the massive explosion that occurred in the port of Beirut, on the fourth of August last year, it is clear that the political elite led the country to the abyss, but he stressed that there is still an opportunity. to bring about positive change.

miss opportunity

Unfortunately, he added, world leaders missed an opportunity to support the Lebanese people, and the societal unity that followed the Beirut explosion, and while the Lebanese receded upon themselves and healed their grief over their loved ones, their homes and their beloved city, their leaders and the world were looking on largely indifferently.

At a time when the people were calling for reform and revolution, the Lebanese elites chose to rename Saad Hariri, last October, to form a new government, with promises to implement reforms, a disgusting joke to many Lebanese, who went out in protests and forced him to resign one year ago.

Hariri, who represents the political elite, has been fighting battles with President Michel Aoun and the main political parties in Lebanon in order to form a government, for nearly 10 months, before he apologized after failing to reach an agreement, after which billionaire Najib Mikati was chosen to fill the post. The position, while facing the same challenges, and as usual, the struggle for power, as a means of survival, is more important than the country and the people.

In the midst of all this, the Lebanese economy continued to collapse, and the World Bank recently warned that every economic measure points to a catastrophe, as the value of the Lebanese pound on the black market has reached 18,325 pounds per dollar, and the unemployment rate has reached 40% Half of the population is living below the poverty line, and nearly 77% of families, as well as 99% of Syrian refugee families, are no longer able to afford food, and the state’s imports, which depend on imports, have declined by 45%, for reasons including the destruction. that settled in the harbor.

Memorial Day

On the anniversary of the explosion, Lebanese of all sects took to the streets to protest unemployment and corruption, expressing their rejection of power structures, but unfortunately the protests, led by families of the port explosion victims, were met with batons and tear gas.

Langlois considered that what happened fully reflects the sweeping crisis that Lebanon is facing today. The government is largely uninterested in accountability, because the political parties realize that reform will undermine their interests and authority.

He pointed out that international and regional actors contributed to the problem, after they failed to deal with it properly, adding that it seems that the United States does not have a clear policy towards Lebanon.

Langlois said that the Arab Gulf states have largely moved away from Lebanon in the past years, while Iran continues to support Hezbollah, and France seems most interested in achieving stability in the country today, although its efforts are limited to donor conferences and repeated calls for reform, which are ignored to To a large extent, some ongoing efforts to punish corrupt politicians inside Lebanon, and freezing funds in Switzerland and the European Union, are still insufficient.

He noted that by providing assistance to the Lebanese in the form of services, such as medical care, sanitation, and food, the international community can help the greater part of the country, while at the same time undermining the deep sectarian patronage networks that support Lebanon's political parties.

In parallel, influential states in the region, as well as internationally, need to use diplomatic tools to pressure Lebanon's leaders, and these efforts should focus on financial sector reform, government transparency, anti-corruption initiatives, and eliminating the patronage system that prevents hundreds of thousands From the young Lebanese to get decent jobs, and at the same time care must be taken to avoid imposing sanctions regimes that could harm the ordinary citizen, while at the same time benefit Hezbollah and Iran.

Langlois acknowledged that this approach is not ideal, but he pointed out that it can prevent a catastrophe in Lebanon.

He stressed that "real reform can only be achieved by severing the link between the Lebanese and the patronage networks, which they have to rely on to survive, and this reduces the power of the dominant political parties."

Langlois concluded his report by warning: "Until such efforts are intensified, and lessons are drawn from the Beirut explosion, Lebanon will continue to collapse."

Finally, the World Bank warned that every economic measure points to a catastrophe. The value of the lira on the black market has reached 18,325 liras per dollar, the unemployment rate has reached 40%, and half of the population lives below the poverty line, and nearly 77 % of families and 99% of Syrian refugees are no longer able to secure food.

• France seems most interested in achieving stability in Lebanon today, although its efforts were limited to donor conferences and calls for reform.

• Real reform can only be achieved by cutting the link between the Lebanese and the patronage networks, which they have to rely on to survive, and this reduces the power of the dominant political parties.

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