Since the United States began withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban have led a lightning offensive across the country, which the government army is struggling to stop.
If the change seems brutal, it was nevertheless foreseeable since the Doha agreement signed last December between the Taliban and the United States.
The future still seems uncertain for Afghanistan, which could see its political regime switch from a republic to an emirate governed by sharia.
Since the start of the withdrawal of American and NATO troops from Afghanistan on May 1, intense fighting has erupted between the Taliban and the country's government forces. In recent days, the fundamentalist Islamist movement seems to be gaining the upper hand over the Afghan army. Having already captured Kunduz, the large city in the northeast, as well as eight other provincial capitals, they seem unstoppable in their conquest of the territory. While Afghanistan has remained under the control of the Islamic Republic and foreign forces for 20 years, this sudden shift raises questions.
On August 2, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani blamed the deterioration of the military situation across the country on the “sudden” decision by the United States to withdraw all American soldiers from the country.
But for his part, Joe Biden assured that he did not regret his decision to leave all of his troops by August 31 and urged the Afghans to find "the will to fight".
In reality, the situation in which the country finds itself is linked to various factors according to Georges Lefeuvre, anthropologist, researcher associated with IRIS specializing in Afghanistan and former political advisor to the Delegation of the European Union in Pakistan.
Why does the Taliban seem to gain some cities so easily?
Some tribal chiefs prefer to come to terms with the Taliban than with the Americans, who had not had very good press for several years. Indeed, in 2014, when the number of foreign troops in Afghanistan was drastically reduced to 10,000, it was not enough to control the country on the ground. The war was therefore fought by air and the bombardments targeting the Taliban movement caused collateral damage to civilians. The Taliban are first and foremost Afghans and the chiefs of some tribes believe that there will surely be a way to come to terms with them later. They therefore advise young people to surrender rather than fight and risk dying.
At least 75% of the country is rural and the population there is more of a traditional way of life.
Many are not necessarily shocked by the law and Sharia law as seen by the Taliban.
The real fear is urban and is especially present in Kabul.
By continuing like this, will the Taliban quickly take over the whole country?
The technique adopted by the Taliban is as old as Confucius.
It is moreover the same that they carried out between 1994 and 1996 to take the country.
They settle in the countryside where they are generally accepted by the populations because there is no cultural shock and this allows them to suffocate trade with the largest cities which end up falling.
However, if in 1996, they managed to take Kabul easily, the context was different.
The capital had only 2 million inhabitants, rather old on average and tired by years of civil war.
Today, Kabul has a population of 5 million, about half of whom are under the age of 30.
They have been built in modernity, get information, are on the networks… They will surely not accept so easily to fall under the yoke of the Taliban.
Was there a hitch in the withdrawal of American troops that explains the current situation?
Everyone seems surprised today at what is happening, but it was written. And long before the recent withdrawal of American troops. It all started in December 2018 at the start of the Doha negotiations which took place without the Afghan government. It is not a peace agreement that the United States negotiated with the Taliban, but an agreement to withdraw American troops, because it was an electoral promise of Donald Trump during his campaign. When the Taliban realized he was ready to do anything to bring the boys home, they continued negotiations without ever backing down.
In 2020, the Doha agreement stipulates that American troops must be gone on May 1, 2021. In exchange, the Taliban pledge not to attack foreign troops during their withdrawal. What they respected. In this agreement there is also a paragraph by which the United States undertakes to ask the United Nations Security Council to approve this agreement. This is the case on March 10, 2020 by a vote of Resolution No. 2315 unanimously by the 15 members of the Council. When a year later, Joe Biden wants to review the terms of the Doha agreements that he would not have negotiated in this way, the Taliban let him know through the UN secretary general that this is not possible since the agreement has already been approved by the United Nations. Americans have no choice but to surrender unconditionally,announced by President Biden from the White House on April 14. And since the Doha agreement commits the entire International Coalition of 39 countries in Afghanistan, it is also the NATO forces that must submit to this surrender.
What political future for the country?
If the Taliban have kept their word by not attacking the Americans, they have continued their political war against the regime of Ashraf Ghani, which they do not recognize. The goal of the Taliban is to restore the Islamic emirate which is in absolute contradiction with the current Islamic republic. Quite simply because an emirate replaces the constitution with sharia. It is also a regime in which there is no need for election since the emir, the commander of the believers, has enough divine inspiration to appoint high officials himself. These are not two political forces that try to negotiate and fail to negotiate, these are two concepts that are mutually exclusive. There can be no negotiation between an Islamic emirate and an Islamic republic.The real negotiations will begin when the last foreign soldier leaves the country.
What are the risks for the country?
Unlike the period 1996-2001 when the Taliban were very isolated and had no diplomatic representation in the rest of the world, they are today the champions of negotiation and very comfortable in international palaces.
It is therefore not in their interest to kidnap women in order to marry them by force or to kill Afghans whom they consider collaborationist.
However, it is difficult to say that this will not happen in some campaigns.
If the Taliban leadership fails to hold back the grassroots militants and numerous abuses are committed, it could lead to a civil war.
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