At the end of the Tokyo Olympics, Yoshihide Suga’s challenge has just begun.
Yoshihide Suga’s cabinet approval rate fell below 30% to a record low. Whether he can be re-elected as prime minister is still unknown.
On August 8, the Tokyo Olympics closed.
The official website of the Tokyo Olympics wrote, “Even if we are not in the same place, we can share the same moment. This is something we will never forget. We believe that sharing the closing ceremony moment will also open the way for us. The door to a brighter future."
However, the complicated situation facing Japan has not changed, and the "Olympic dividend" that the Japanese government originally expected has not yet appeared.
During the Olympic Games, the number of new crown cases in Japan is increasing.
Just after the Olympics ended, Yoshihide Suga's cabinet approval rate fell below 30% for the first time, a record low.
Yoshihide Suga’s term of office of the Liberal Democratic Party will end in September this year, and the term of the Japanese House of Representatives will also end in October.
In the face of the next Liberal Democratic Party presidential election and the House of Representatives election, it is still unknown whether Suga Yoshihide can be re-elected as prime minister.
Disagreements on hosting the Olympics before the epidemic
In Tokyo, all taxis have "Tokyo 2020" written on them, and signs of the Olympic Games are all over the street cafes and shops.
Many Japanese people said that they would watch the Olympics after work, some were very concerned about track and field events, and some watched table tennis matches closely.
The hosting of this Olympic Games has gone through several twists and turns, and the suspense about whether it can be held as scheduled continues until the opening.
Even when the opening ceremony was held, there were still many protesters outside the venue demanding to stop the event.
Sports historian Fuzeroi said, “People who love sports will always care about the Olympics, and those who are worried about the new crown epidemic will be concerned about it. It is reasonable for the Japanese people to have differences in this regard.”
Professor Hong Shihong from the School of Circulation of Hannan University in Japan said that before the new crown, there were differences in the holding of the Olympic Games in Japan.
When Japan successfully bid for the Olympics in 2013, the Communist Party of Japan and some leftists did not support it. They opposed the use of the infrastructure projects of the Olympic Games by enterprises and the ruling party to obtain capital.
"In the long run, the disagreements among the Japanese people may turn into antagonisms between different positions, that is, pay more attention to life safety or economic benefits. In addition, the proportion of young people in favor of hosting the Olympics is higher than that of middle-aged and elderly people, so it may change in the future. Disagreements between generations." Hong Shihong said.
The epidemic has led to an increase in hosting costs
When Japan succeeded in its Olympic bid in 2013, then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe expressed the hope that the Japanese economy could benefit from the 2020 Tokyo Olympics under the blow of more than a decade of deflation.
In 2013, Kyodo News Agency quoted a report saying that thanks to factors such as construction demand and the development of tourism, the 2020 Tokyo Olympics is expected to promote Japan's economic growth by 0.5%.
However, the "Japan Times" stated on August 7 that the Tokyo Olympics ultimately did not bring about economic vitality.
The expenditure budget for the Tokyo Olympics has surged from the initial US$7.3 billion to US$14.9 billion.
This is not the true cost of the Tokyo Olympics.
In the government audit before the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the actual expenditure for the Tokyo Olympics has reached 27 billion U.S. dollars.
Under the new crown-related epidemic prevention policies, the cost of the Tokyo Olympics has also greatly increased.
According to the estimates of Japan's Nomura Research Institute, the measures to empty the field alone cost the Japanese government US$1.3 billion in economic benefits.
A report by the Japanese government also pointed out that the one-year delay in hosting the Olympic Games due to the new crown epidemic has increased the cost of the Olympic Games by 20%.
Such a huge expenditure has not been reasonably explained.
Hong Shihong analyzed that behind the opaque funding for the Tokyo Olympics, some were "blatantly" exploited and intercepted by related households, and some are still unknown to this day.
In addition, support groups and related households of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party have also arranged for more than half a month before and after the competition for performance and logistical expenses, many of which are "share of the pie".
More than 10,000 new confirmed cases for multiple days
According to Japan's Fuji News Network FNN, on August 8, there were 11087 new confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in Japan in a single day, and more than 10,000 new cases were confirmed for 6 consecutive days.
Among them, 4,066 newly confirmed cases were confirmed in Tokyo on August 8, and more than 4,000 confirmed cases were added daily for 5 consecutive days.
At the same time, according to data from the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, as of August 7, there were 1,138 severe patients with new coronary pneumonia in Japan.
During the Olympics, the three prefectures of Saitama, Chiba, Kanagawa and Kanto Osaka Prefecture around Tokyo entered a state of emergency on August 2 due to the new crown. Five prefectures and prefectures including Hokkaido, Kyoto, and Fukuoka announced the implementation of "key measures such as spread prevention". Tokyo The state of emergency in Okinawa will continue until August 31 accordingly.
On August 8, the Japanese government announced that eight new prefectures, including Ibaraki and Fukushima, will implement "key measures such as spread prevention", which will continue until August 31.
At the press conference, Yoshihide Suga denied putting all of Japan in a state of emergency for the new crown. At the same time, he also denied the connection between the Tokyo Olympics and the further deterioration of the new crown epidemic.
Many Japanese people also agree with this view.
Someone said that athletes participating in the Olympics are in the "epidemic prevention bubble", and the Olympics does not have much to do with the deterioration of the new crown epidemic.
Although the relationship between the Olympics and the new crown epidemic is difficult to conclude, the worsening of the epidemic is still the "pot" of the Japanese government.
Public dissatisfaction with the anti-epidemic policy caused the Yoshihide Suga government's support rate to continue to decline before the Tokyo Olympics.
At present, Japan's slow vaccination process has also attracted criticism.
"Japan Times" stated that before the Tokyo Olympics, when people from all over the world are about to enter Japan, Japan still does not seem to feel the urgency of vaccinating the new crown.
Before the start of the Olympics, Japan's vaccination rate was less than 20%.
Japan’s "Mainichi Shimbun" analysis pointed out that the reasons for the slow vaccination process in Japan include the resistance of Japanese citizens to vaccination, the shortage of medical staff responsible for vaccination, and the insufficient supply of vaccines in Japan.
At present, Japan is still too dependent on foreign vaccine supplies.
Japanese political scientist Tetsuo Kawato pointed out in an article on Japan’s “Toyo Keizai Online” that Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare previously believed that the development and manufacture of vaccines are costly and risky, and the delay in approval has led to the backward development of Japan’s new crown vaccine.
The official website of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan shows that starting from December 2020, companies in Japan have begun to develop new crown vaccines one after another. At present, a total of 4 companies in Japan have developed new crown pneumonia vaccines that have entered the clinical trial stage.
Among them, the president of the Japanese pharmaceutical giant Daiichi Sankyo said that the Japanese government has not invested enough budget to support vaccine development, which has caused Japanese pharmaceutical companies to hesitate in vaccine investment.
Whether Suga Yoshihide can be re-elected as prime minister is unknown
In addition to the opaque excess costs of the Tokyo Olympics and the ineffective epidemic prevention policy, the indecisive policies of the Yoshihide Suga government have also greatly damped the confidence of the Japanese people in the government.
The Japan Times analyzed that the Japanese government promised to hold a safe game, but it was slow to create a safe environment for the people of Tokyo, and even the policy of deciding to hold the game empty has been hesitant.
Regarding the limit on the number of viewers, the Japanese government has made several changes to related policies.
In February of this year, the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee announced its refusal to accept overseas audiences.
On June 21, the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee announced that a maximum of 10,000 local spectators would be allowed to watch each match of the Olympic Games, and the total number of spectators admitted should not exceed half of the stadium's capacity.
According to Japan’s Kyodo News Agency, before Tokyo’s plan to enter the fourth new crown emergency, the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee is also considering adjusting the number of spectators per game to 5,000.
It was not until July 8 that the Japanese government officially determined after the five-party consultation that the Tokyo Olympics would be held without spectators.
This fall, Japan will hold parliamentary elections, and Yoshihide Suga faces general elections and elections for party leaders.
Among them, the party leader election will be held in September, but the continued decline in the support rate has threatened his position in the party.
In previous public opinion surveys, Yoshihide Suga’s approval rate has been hit by policies related to the new crown and the Olympics.
The results of a public opinion survey published by the Japan Broadcasting Association on July 12 showed that the approval rate of the cabinet led by Yoshihide Suga fell to 33%, the lowest since the cabinet was established in September last year.
The "Asahi Shimbun" poll results on August 7 and 8 showed that the approval rate of Yoshihide Suga's cabinet fell again to 28%, setting a new record again, falling below 30% for the first time.
According to a report from Japan's "Toyo Keizai Online" website, there may be voices within the Liberal Democratic Party that oppose the identity of the leader of Yoshihide Suga's party, and lawmakers are unwilling to let such an unpopular leader be in power.
Hong Shihong pointed out that the Liberal Democratic Party has begun to have problems in several local elections, so it is expected that the Liberal Democratic Party will also be reluctant to elect him as the party leader during the parliamentary elections.
Previously, external analysis believed that if Yoshihide Suga wants to succeed in re-election, there are several hurdles, the first is to control the deteriorating new crown epidemic.
Secondly, the Olympic Games were successfully held to reverse the declining support rate.
Among them, the Yoshihide Suga government regards the latter as the "key move" that determines the life and death of Yoshihide Suga's cabinet.
At that time, Yoshihide Suga may take advantage of the success of the Tokyo Olympics to dissolve the House of Representatives for early elections.
However, it is clear that people's recognition of the smooth hosting of the Olympics has not translated into support, and public opinion's tendency to oppose Suga Yoshihide will not change in a short time.
Hong Shihong said, "Although public opinion is very fluid, it is estimated that the controversy caused by the epidemic and the Olympic Games will continue for some time."
The "New York Times" commented that the disagreements and confusion among citizens caused by the Olympics made people yearn for a brand-new system.
Although the odds of the Japanese opposition party winning are very small, it is still unknown whether Yoshihide Suga will eventually be re-elected under the circumstance of rising voices against Yoshihide Suga's cabinet.
New Beijing News trainee reporter Hou Wuting